Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.</p

Auswirkungen der Europäischen Holzhandelsverordnung auf Importeure von Holzerzeugnissen in Deutschland – Design und Ergebnisse einer Befragung

Since 2013 the European Timber Regulation (EUTR) prohibits the placement of timber and timber products from illegal sources on the European market. Companies that import timber or timber products from third countries into the EU are therefore faced with a number of requirements. In 2018, a detailed survey of German market operators was carried out by the Thünen Institute. In addition to the questionnaire design and sample design, this working paper publishes the whole questionnaire and the distribution of responses to each question. The responses to each question were descriptively analysed and results are shown in tables. The aim is to disclose the survey results for external scientists and to make them usable

Trade in wood‐based products in the EU27 – wood content and coverage by the current EUTR and the proposed regulation on deforestation‐free value chains

This working paper provides a detailed overview of the trade in wood-based or wood-containing products1 in the EU27 in 2020 and distinguishes products already under the scope of the EUTR and the proposed regulation of the European Commission on deforestation-free value chains, from products not in the scope of those two regulations. The study considers overall 769 products (according to the 8-digit product codes of the Combined Nomenclature) from the entire list of goods for international trade statistics, provided that some wood content can be assumed. Of these products, 348 are already in the scope of the EUTR. The remaining 421 products are considered, to assess their relevance in EU27 wood-based products trade. Therefore, trade values and quantities for each product are taken from EUROSTAT foreign trade data bases. To compare the wood content related to each product, trade quantities were converted into trade volumes of cubic meters of roundwood equivalents (RWE m³). The roundwood equivalent indicates how much raw wood is required to produce the respective wood-based product. Converting the trade volumes into this physical reference value also enables a raw material-related comparison of the traded products. The working paper presents three different trade flows, which all fall within the scope of the proposed new regulation for deforestation-free products: a) Imports of wood-based products from third countries into the EU27, b) exports to third countries from the EU27, and c) intra trade within the EU27 internal market (between EU Member States). Further, detailed information on data compilation, data gaps and uncertainties and conversion factors applied are given within this working paper

Effects of carbon sequestration rewards on forest management--An empirical application of adjusted Faustmann Formulae

This paper assesses the effects that different economic instruments to reward carbon sequestration services might have on forest management, especially on the optimal rotation period. Three different carbon crediting schemes are considered, which are based on different accounting rules. The schemes are different with respect to the question whether and how to account for carbon emissions. The forest valuation method used for calculation is based on the land expectation value (LEV), which was adjusted for the value of carbon sequestration services. Changes in the LEV and optimal rotation are expected to be induced by the amount and interactions of carbon and timber prices, harvesting and regeneration costs, and interest rates. The optimal economic rotation period is calculated for single stands as well as for whole forest enterprises (fully regulated "normal" forests). Crediting the carbon sequestration of single stands--starting from the time of regeneration--is comparable to rewarding afforestation projects. When crediting forest enterprises with existing timber and carbon stocks, additional carbon sequestration compared to a reference is rewarded. The findings reveal that, depending on the carbon price level, the optimal rotation period is increased in all considered crediting schemes, but with different intensity. If wood removals have to be accounted as carbon emissions this has the most significant effect on the optimal rotation period for forest stands and enterprises. In this case the increase of the optimal rotation period by rising carbon prices is boosted additionally by rising interest rates. Different thinning regimes, however, have only little impact on the time of maximum LEV under carbon crediting schemes.Carbon credits Economic incentives Land expectation value Forest rotation age Forest management Discrete-time model

Ein Konzept zur Honorierung der Ökosystemleistungen der Wälder

This working paper presents and substantiates a detailed concept for rewarding the ecosystem services of forests in Germany. The concept accounts for actually provided services (rather than for management measures), and focuses on the productivity of the particular forests/forest enterprises as well as on society’s demand for the individual forest services. The concept consists of two levels. Level 1 comprises global services, in particular for climate and biodiversity protection; here the amount of services provided and the respective payments are being deduced from international agreements and the corresponding national strategies, as far as possible. Level 2 comprises further recreational and protection services, where demand exhibits more pronounced regional and local differences; on this level, service amounts and the respective payments are determined by individual contracts, which require at least a pro-rata contribution of the interested stakeholders. Throughout, we legitimise the concept and its individual elements by relating it to the given legal situation, and to the results of democratic decision making. Finally, we discuss the conceivable incentive and steering effects of the proposal, and the necessary reforms of the existing subsidisation system for forestry

Scale and context dependency of deforestation drivers: Insights from spatial econometrics in the tropics.

A better understanding of deforestation drivers across countries and spatial scales is a precondition for designing efficient international policies and coherent land use planning strategies such as REDD+. However, it is so far unclear if the well-studied drivers of tropical deforestation behave similarly across nested subnational jurisdictions, which is crucial for efficient policy implementation. We selected three countries in Africa, America and Asia, which present very different tropical contexts. Making use of spatial econometrics and a multi-level approach, we conducted a set of regressions comprising 3,035 administrative units from the three countries at micro-level, plus 361 and 49 at meso- and macro-level, respectively. We included forest cover as dependent variable and seven physio-geographic and socioeconomic indicators of well-known drivers of deforestation as explanatory variables. With this, we could provide a first set of highly significant econometric models of pantropical deforestation that consider subnational units. We identified recurrent drivers across countries and scales, namely population pressure and the natural condition of land suitability for crop production. The impacts of demography on forest cover were strikingly strong across contexts, suggesting clear limitations of sectoral policy. Our findings also revealed scale and context dependencies, such as an increased heterogeneity at local scopes, with a higher and more diverse number of significant determinants of forest cover. Additionally, we detected stronger spatial interactions at smaller levels, providing empirical evidence that certain deforestation forces occur independently of the existing de jure governance boundaries. We demonstrated that neglecting spatial dependencies in this type of studies can lead to several misinterpretations. We therefore advocate, that the design and enforcement of policy instruments-such as REDD+-should start from common international entry points that ensure for coherent agricultural and demographic policies. In order to achieve a long-term impact on the ground, these policies need to have enough flexibility to be modified and adapted to specific national, regional or local conditions

A systematic review of forest area development drivers estimated under the concepts of environmental Kuznets curve and forest transition hypothesis

Over the last 30 years, more than 150 different drivers of forest area development have been investigated in peer-reviewed statistical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation (EKCd) and the forest transition hypothesis (FTH). However, there is no synthesis which of these drivers significantly contribute to changes in forest land expansion, like deforestation and forest recovery. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature dealing with statistical analysis of drivers of forest area development under the concepts of EKCd and FTH. We referred to peer-reviewed articles, preselected by the evidence and gap map of Tandetzki et al 2022 Environ. Res. Lett. 17 123005. From these selected articles we identified 85 relevant studies and extracted the applied model specifications. We found differences among studies in variable specifications of the dependent variable (expressions of forest area development) and the choice of independent variables (drivers) as well as in the choice of geographical scope and the concept used (EKCd and FTH). For further analysis, we extracted all drivers used to explain forest area development in the different studies and assigned them to 12 thematic categories (e.g. income factors or institutional factors). Our results show that the main underlying drivers of deforestation are related to income, demographics, trade, and institutional factors. The forest transition phenomenon is mainly described by drivers directly influencing forest area (e.g. expansion of agricultural land) and demographic trends. The heterogeneity and universality of the concepts of EKCd and FTH is not clearly evident even when separating different study groups. By isolating and discussing individual drivers of forest area development, our findings support future research dedicated to the analysis and projection of global forest area dynamics

Spatial Distribution of Forest Ecosystem Service Benefits in Germany: A Multiple Benefit-Transfer Model

We investigate the economic benefits of fundamental forest ecosystem services (FES) for the population in Germany at national level in monetary terms and estimate the spatial distribution of these benefits at county level. Specifically, we consider the benefits of timber production, of global climate protection due to carbon sequestration, of recreation for local residents, and of services for nature protection and landscape amenity. Combining information from official statistics and data from valuation studies that are compatible with economic demand theory, we identify spatial drivers of FES benefits and derive generic valuation functions for each of the services. Using a Geographic Information System, these valuation functions are applied to the conditions in the Local Administrative Units (municipalities), resulting in Benefit Function Transfer estimates for each service and each municipality. Afterwards, results are aggregated to NUTS-3 level (counties) and mapped. Aggregate annual benefits of timber production to society as a whole, of climate protection and of recreation services together exceed the ten billion Euro mark—far more than what is reflected in market statistics. Scenarios illustrate the potential for enhancing nature protection benefits particularly by restoring forest biodiversity, as measured by an avifaunistic indicator. The spatial analysis reveals distinct distributional patterns for each of the services. We conclude that a spatially explicit valuation for an entire country is possible even with limited data, which can help policy makers improve the institutional setting in a way that the protection and use of the forests become more sustainable and efficient. After pointing at several caveats, we finally suggest various possibilities for further model development.BMEL, 22022614, Verbundvorhaben: Quantifizierung und Regionalisierung des Wertes von Waldökosystemleistungen in Deutschland; Teilvorhaben 1: Zentrale Modellentwicklung, Primärdatenanalysen und nationaler Benefit Transfe

Regionalisierte Bewertung der Waldleistungen in Deutschland

The study aims at determining the economic benefits of fundamental forest ecosystem services (FES) in Germany from a demand perspective, at identifying their regional distribution, and at merging the respective benefit estimates into a consistent model which provides for scenario analyses of alternative forest utilisation options. Specifically, we consider the monetary benefits of raw wood production as a FES, of global climate protection (via carbon sequestration), of everyday recreation for the population, and of services for nature protection and landscape amenity, which accrue in the course of regular forest management as well as due to the establishment of separate protection areas. For this purpose, we combine available valuation data, information from official regional statistics, and an additional primary study, to identify regional specific drivers of the FES’ monetary benefits and to derive generic valuation functions for each of the services. Using a Geographical Information System, these valuation functions are then applied to the conditions in the Local Administrative Units (municipalities), resulting in Benefit Function Transfer estimates for each service and each municipality. Afterwards, results are aggregated to NUTS-3 level (counties) and mapped. Subsequently we simulate the consequences of modified regional conditions (e.g., modified forest management) for FES values and their relations, by appropriately changing the input data