Savings, expectations and technological unemployment: a generalization of assumptions for the Hicksian fixwage traverse

This paper examines the role of alternative assumptions on savings and expectations for the fixwage traverse with strong forward biased technological change. After briefly outlining the model, some peculiarities of the adjustment path under the Hicksian Q-Assumption are investigated. Subsequently, the consequences of several savings functions consistent with the assumption of static expectations are explored. With all but one of these assumptions the possibility of permanent technological unemployment emerges. Additionally, the assumption of adaptive expectations is introduced, in which case technological unemployment throughout the early phase prevails. Furthermore, oscillating growth rates emerge, indicating the possibility of technologically caused business cycles. --Traverse analysis,technological unemployment,Neo-Austrian theory

Savings, Expectations and Technological Unemployment : A Generalization of Assumptions for the Hicksian Fixwage Traverse

This paper examines the role of alternative assumptions on savings and expectations for the fixwage traverse with strong forward biased technological change. After briefly outlining the model, some peculiarities of the adjustment path under the Hicksian Q-Assumption are investigated. Subsequently, the consequences of several savings functions consistent with the assumption of static expectations are explored. With all but one of these assumptions the possibility of permanent technological unemployment emerges. Additionally, the assumption of adaptive expectations is introduced, in which case technological unemployment throughout the early phase prevails. Furthermore, oscillating growth rates emerge, indicating the possibility of technologically caused business cycles

Knowledge, attitudes, behaviors, and serological status related to Chagas disease among Latin American migrants in Germany: A cross-sectional study in six German cities

BackgroundLittle is known about knowledge, attitudes and behaviors concerning Chagas disease (CD) among Latin American migrants in Germany to inform public health decision making.MethodsA cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study was conducted between March 2014 and October 2019 among Latin American migrants in six cities in Germany to obtain information on migration history, socioeconomic and insurance status, knowledge about CD, potential risk factors for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, and willingness to donate blood or organs.Results168 participants completed the questionnaire. The four countries with the highest proportion of participants contributing to the study population were Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Ecuador. Before migrating to Europe, the majority of the study population resided in an urban setting in houses made of stone or concrete, had higher academic education and was integrated into the German healthcare and healthcare insurance system. The majority of all study participants were also willing to donate blood and organs and a quarter of them had donated blood previously. However, many participants lacked basic knowledge about symptoms and modes of transmission of Chagas disease. One out of 56 serologic tests (1.8%) performed was positive. The seropositive female participant born in Argentina had a negative PCR test and no signs of cardiac or other organ involvement.ConclusionsThe study population does not reflect the population structure at risk for T. cruzi infection in endemic countries. Most participants had a low risk profile for infection with T. cruzi. Although the sample size was small and sampling was not representative of all persons at risk in Germany, the seroprevalence found was similar to studies previously conducted in Europe. As no systematic screening for T. cruzi in Latin American blood and organ donors as well as in women of child-bearing age of Latin American origin is implemented in Germany, a risk of occasional transmission of T. cruzi remains

Prediction of Locally Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder Using Clinical Parameters before Radical Cystectomy - A Prospective Multicenter Study

Introduction: We aimed at developing and validating a pre-cystectomy nomogram for the prediction of locally advanced urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) using clinicopathological parameters. Materials and Methods: Multicenter data from 337 patients who underwent radical cystectomy (RC) for UCB were prospectively collected and eligible for final analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to identify significant predictors of locally advanced tumor stage (pT3/4 and/or pN+) at RC. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was done to evaluate the clinical value. Results: The distribution of tumor stages pT3/4, pN+ and pT3/4 and/or pN+ at RC was 44.2, 27.6 and 50.4%, respectively. Age (odds ratio (OR) 0.980; p < 0.001), advanced clinical tumor stage (cT3 vs. cTa, cTis, cT1; OR 3.367; p < 0.001), presence of hydronephrosis (OR 1.844; p = 0.043) and advanced tumor stage T3 and/or N+ at CT imaging (OR 4.378; p < 0.001) were independent predictors for pT3/4 and/or pN+ tumor stage. The predictive accuracy of our nomogram for pT3/4 and/or pN+ at RC was 77.5%. DCA for predicting pT3/4 and/or pN+ at RC showed a clinical net benefit across all probability thresholds. Conclusion: We developed a nomogram for the prediction of locally advanced tumor stage pT3/4 and/or pN+ before RC using established clinicopathological parameters

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school&#x2;aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Savings, expectations and technological unemployment A generalization of assumptions for the Hicksian fixwage traverse

'This paper examines the role of alternative assumptions on savings and expectations for the fixwage traverse with strong forward biased technological change. After briefly outlining the model, some peculiarities of the adjustment path under the Hicksian Q-Assumption are investigated. Subsequently, the consequences of several savings functions consistent with the assumption of static expectations are explored. With all but one of these assumptions the possibility of permanent technological unemployment emerges. Additionally, the assumption of adaptive expectations is introduced, in which case technological unemployment throughout the early phase prevails. Furthermore, oscillating growth rates emerge, indicating the possibility of technologically caused business cycles.' (author's abstract)Die Verfasser diskutieren alternative Annahmen in Bezug auf Ersparnisse und Erwartungen fuer die Fixlohn-Traverse bei rapidem technologischem Wandel. Sie stellen das Modell zunaechst vor und untersuchen Besonderheiten des Anpassungspfades unter Hicks' Q-Annahme. Im Folgenden werden Auswirkungen verschiedener Sparfunktionen eroertert, die im Einklang mit der Annahme statischer Erwartungen stehen. Mit einer Ausnahme tritt bei allen diesen Annahmen die Moeglichkeit andauernder technologischer Arbeitslosigkeit auf. Wird die Annahme adaptiver Erwartungen eingefuehrt, herrscht technologische Arbeitslosigkeit in der Fruehphase vor. Zudem treten schwankende Wachstumsraten auf, die auf die Moeglichkeit technologisch verursachter Konjunkturzyklen verweisen. (ICEUebers)German title: Ersparnisse, Erwartungen und technologische Arbeitslosigkeit: eine Verallgemeinerung von Annahmen fuer Hicks' Fixlohn-TraverseAvailable from ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp0029.pdf / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman