Within-epitope interactions affect CTL-escape estimation

As human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) begins to replicate within hosts, immune responses are elicited against it. Escape mutations in viral epitopes-immunogenic peptide parts presented on the surface of infected cells-allow HIV to partially evade these responses, and thus rapidly go to fixation. The faster they go to fixation, i.e., the higher their escape rate, the larger the selective pressure exerted by the immune system is assumed to be. This relation underpins the rationale for using escapes to assess the strength of immune responses. However, escape rate estimates are often obtained by employing an aggregation procedure, where several mutations that affect the same epitope are aggregated into a single, composite epitope mutation. The aggregation procedure thus rests upon the assumption that all within-epitope mutations have indistinguishable effects on immune recognition. In this study, we investigate how violation of this assumption affects escape rate estimates. To this end, we extend a previously developed simulation model of HIV that accounts for mutation, selection, and recombination to include different distributions of fitness effects (DFEs) and inter-mutational genomic distances. We use this discrete time Wright-Fisher based model to simulate early within-host evolution of HIV for DFEs and apply standard estimation methods to infer the escape rates. We then compare true with estimated escape rate values. We also compare escape rate values obtained by applying the aggregation procedure with values estimated without use of that procedure. We find that across the DFEs analyzed, the aggregation procedure alters the detectability of escape mutations: large-effect mutations are overrepresented while small-effect mutations are concealed. The effect of the aggregation procedure is similar to extracting the largest-effect mutation appearing within an epitope. Furthermore, the more pronounced the over-exponential decay of the DFEs, the more severely true escape rates are underestimated. We conclude that the aggregation procedure has two main consequences. On the one hand, it leads to a misrepresentation of the DFE of fixed mutations. On the other hand, it conceals within-epitope interactions that may generate irregularities in mutation frequency trajectories that are thus left unexplained

Investigating the consequences of interference between multiple CD8+ T cell escape mutations in early HIV infection

During early human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection multiple CD8+ T cell responses are elicited almost simultaneously. These responses exert strong selective pressures on different parts of HIV's genome, and select for mutations that escape recognition and are thus beneficial to the virus. Some studies reveal that the later these escape mutations emerge, the more slowly they go to fixation. This pattern of escape rate decrease(ERD) can arise by distinct mechanisms. In particular, in large populations with high beneficial mutation rates interference among different escape strains – an effect that can emerge in evolution with asexual reproduction and results in delayed fixation times of beneficial mutations compared to sexual reproduction – could significantly impact the escape rates of mutations. In this paper, we investigated how interference between these concurrent escape mutations affects their escape rates in systems with multiple epitopes, and whether it could be a source of the ERD pattern. To address these issues, we developed a multilocus Wright-Fisher model of HIV dynamics with selection, mutation and recombination, serving as a null-model for interference. We also derived an interference-free null model assuming initial neutral evolution before immune response elicitation. We found that interference between several equally selectively advantageous mutations can generate the observed ERD pattern. We also found that the number of loci, as well as recombination rates substantially affect ERD. These effects can be explained by the underexponential decline of escape rates over time. Lastly, we found that the observed ERD pattern in HIV infected individuals is consistent with both independent, interference-free mutations as well as interference effects. Our results confirm that interference effects should be considered when analyzing HIV escape mutations. The challenge in estimating escape rates and mutation-associated selective coefficients posed by interference effects cannot simply be overcome by improved sampling frequencies or sizes. This problem is a consequence of the fundamental shortcomings of current estimation techniques under interference regimes. Hence, accounting for the stochastic nature of competition between mutations demands novel estimation methodologies based on the analysis of HIV strains, rather than mutation frequencies

Cultural transmission of move choice in chess

The study of cultural evolution benefits from detailed analysis of cultural transmission in specific human domains. Chess provides a platform for understanding the transmission of knowledge due to its active community of players, precise behaviors, and long-term records of high-quality data. In this paper, we perform an analysis of chess in the context of cultural evolution, describing multiple cultural factors that affect move choice. We then build a population-level statistical model of move choice in chess, based on the Dirichlet-multinomial likelihood, to analyze cultural transmission over decades of recorded games played by leading players. For moves made in specific positions, we evaluate the relative effects of frequency-dependent bias, success bias, and prestige bias on the dynamics of move frequencies. We observe that negative frequency-dependent bias plays a role in the dynamics of certain moves, and that other moves are compatible with transmission under prestige bias or success bias. These apparent biases may reflect recent changes, namely the introduction of computer chess engines and online tournament broadcasts. Our analysis of chess provides insights into broader questions concerning evolution of human behavioral preferences and modes of social learning.Comment: 25 page

Demographic Estimates from Y Chromosome Microsatellite Polymorphisms: Analysis of a Worldwide Sample

Polymorphisms in microsatellites on the human Y chromosome have been used to estimate important demographic parameters of human history. We compare two coalescent-based statistical methods that give estimates for a number of demographic parameters using the seven Y chromosome polymorphisms in the HGDP-CEPH Cell Line Panel, a collection of samples from 52 worldwide populations. The estimates for the time to the most recent common ancestor vary according to the method used and the assumptions about the prior distributions of model parameters, but are generally consistent with other global Y chromosome studies. We explore the sensitivity of these results to assumptions about the prior distributions and the evolutionary models themselves

Evolution of disassortative and assortative mating preferences based on imprinting

Abstract A two-locus haploid model of sexual selection is investigated to explore evolution of disassortative and assortative mating preferences based on imprinting. In this model, individuals imprint on a genetically transmitted trait during early ontogeny and choosy females later use those parental images as a criterion of mate choice. It is assumed that the presence or absence of the female preference is determined by a genetic locus. In order to incorporate such mechanisms as inbreeding depression and heterozygous advantage into our haploid framework, we assume that same-type matings are less fertile than different-type mating. The model suggests that: if all the females have a disassortative mating preference a viability-reducing trait may be maintained even without the fertility cost of same-type matings; a disassortative mating preference can be established even if it is initially rare, when there is a fertility cost of same-type matings. Further, an assortative mating preference is less likely to evolve than a disassortative mating preference. The model may be applicable to the evolution of MHC-disassortative mating preferences documented in house mice and humans.

Genetic diversity and population structure inferred from the partially duplicated genome of domesticated carp, Cyprinus carpio L.

Genetic relationships among eight populations of domesticated carp (Cyprinus carpio L.), a species with a partially duplicated genome, were studied using 12 microsatellites and 505 AFLP bands. The populations included three aquacultured carp strains and five ornamental carp (koi) variants. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was used as an outgroup. AFLP-based gene diversity varied from 5% (grass carp) to 32% (koi) and reflected the reasonably well understood histories and breeding practices of the populations. A large fraction of the molecular variance was due to differences between aquacultured and ornamental carps. Further analyses based on microsatellite data, including cluster analysis and neighbor-joining trees, supported the genetic distinctiveness of aquacultured and ornamental carps, despite the recent divergence of the two groups. In contrast to what was observed for AFLP-based diversity, the frequency of heterozygotes based on microsatellites was comparable among all populations. This discrepancy can potentially be explained by duplication of some loci in Cyprinus carpio L., and a model that shows how duplication can increase heterozygosity estimates for microsatellites but not for AFLP loci is discussed. Our analyses in carp can help in understanding the consequences of genotyping duplicated loci and in interpreting discrepancies between dominant and co-dominant markers in species with recent genome duplication