Faut-il s’inquiéter pour nos revenus de retraite?

Présenter une vision aussi objective que possible de la situation des régimes de pension publics et privés du Québec et du Canada constitue l’objectif premier de ce texte. Les régimes de pensions publics financés par répartition ont accumulé d’énormes déficits actuariels envers les baby-boomers. Le vieillissement de la population touchant presque tous les pays industrialisés pose des défis de taille aux gouvernements. Plusieurs ajustements possibles sont envisagés, notamment d’augmenter rapidement les taux de cotisation afin de mettre à contribution les baby-boomers pendant qu’ils participent encore au marché du travail. Il est toutefois peu probable que ce seul changement sera suffisant pour financer les engagements envers la génération des baby-boomers.The objective of this paper is to present a realistic view of the private and public pensions schemes in Quebec and Canada. The public pension plans financed by "pay as you go" schemes have accumulated huge actuarial liabilities toward the baby boomer generation. The anticipations of adverse demographic trends pose huge challenges to the governments of all industrialised countries. Several corrective measures are proposed, including the quick increase in contribution rates in order to benefit from the contributions of the baby boomers that will still be in the labour force for the next fifteen years. This measure alone will probably not solve the long run problems of the Canadian and Quebec Pensions Plans as claim by the proponents of the current reform

Le taux de croissance de l’offre de monnaie et arbitrage entre le taux d’inflation et le taux de chômage au Canada

This paper presents simulations results using a "Modified St. Louis Model" for Canada. These simulations identify opportunities of trade-off between inflation and unemployment rate. They reveal very slim opportunities of trade-off and demonstrate that any short-term gain in real output caused by monetary stimulus will have to be paid in term of compensating slower output growth to reduce inflationary expectations. This situation of no real trade-off shows up even if the model does not fully endogenize the exchange rate and international trade feedback of changes in money supply growth rate