Poisson, Bayes, Soccer and DeFinetti

Nesta dissertação é abordado o problema de previsões probabilísticas para eventos tricotômicos, além da questão de comparação de qualidade das previsões através de curvas de calibração e da Medida de DeFinetti. É feita uma aplicação paraprevisões de resultados de futebolThis dissertation deals with the problem of probabilistic previsions for tricotomic events, in addiction with the question of comparison of quality of the previsions, by using calibration curves and the DeFinetti Measure. An application is developed for previsions of soccer games results

Poisson, Bayes, Soccer and DeFinetti

Nesta dissertação é abordado o problema de previsões probabilísticas para eventos tricotômicos, além da questão de comparação de qualidade das previsões através de curvas de calibração e da Medida de DeFinetti. É feita uma aplicação paraprevisões de resultados de futebolThis dissertation deals with the problem of probabilistic previsions for tricotomic events, in addiction with the question of comparison of quality of the previsions, by using calibration curves and the DeFinetti Measure. An application is developed for previsions of soccer games results

Sequential FBST

O FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) é um instrumento desenvolvido por Pereira e Stern (1999) com o objetivo de apresentar uma alternativa bayesiana aos testes de hipóteses precisas. Desde sua introdução, o FBST se mostrou uma ferramenta muito útil para a solução de problemas para os quais não havia soluções freqüentistas. Esse teste, contudo, depende de que a amostra seja coletada uma única vez, após o que a distribuição a posteriori dos parâmetros é obtida e a medida de evidência, calculada. Ensejadas por esse aspecto, são apresentadas abordagens analíticas e computacionais para a extensão do FBST ao contexto de decisão seqüencial (DeGroot, 2004). É apresentado e analisado um algoritmo para a execução do FBST Seqüencial, bem como o código-fonte de um software baseado nesse algoritmo.FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) is a tool developed by Pereira and Stern (1999), to show a bayesian alternative to the tests of precise hypotheses. Since its introduction, FBST has shown to be a very useful tool to solve problems to which there were no frequentist solutions. This test, however, needs that the sample be collected just one time and, after this, the parameters posterior distribution is obtained and the evidence measure, computed. Suggested by this feature, there are presented analytic and computational approaches to the extension of the FBST to the sequential decision context (DeGroot, 2004). It is presented and analyzed an algorithm to execute the Sequential FBST, as well as the source code of a software based on this algorithm

Induction of TNF-alfa and CXCL-2 mRNAs in different organs of mice infected with pathogenic Leptospira

The role of innate immune response in protection against leptospirosis is poorly understood. We examined the expression of the chemokine CXCL2/MIP-2 and the cytokine TNF-alpha. in experimental resistant and susceptible mice models, C3H/HeJ, C3H/HePas and BALB/c strains, using a virulent strain of Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni. Animals were infected intraperitoneally with 107 cells and the development of the disease was followed. Mortality of C3H/HeJ mice was observed whereas C3H/HePas presented jaundice and BALB/c mice remained asymptomatic. The infection was confirmed by the presence of leptospiral DNA in the organs of the animals, demonstrated by PCR. Sections of the organs were analyzed, after H&E stain. The relative expression of mRNA of chemokine CXCL2/MIP-2 and cytokine TNF-alpha was measured in lung, kidney and liver of the mice by qPCR. The concentrations of these proteins were measured in extracts of tissues and in serum of the animals, by ELISA. Increasing levels of transcripts and protein CXCL2/MIP-2 were detected since the first day of infection. The highest expression was observed at third day of infection in kidney, liver and lung of BALB/c mice. In C3H/HeJ the expression of CXCL2/MIP-2 was delayed, showing highest protein concentration in lung and kidney at the 5th day. Increasing in TNF-alpha transcripts were detected after infection, in kidney and liver of animals from the three mice strains. The expression of TNF-alpha protein in C3H/HeJ was also delayed, being detected in kidney and lung. Our data demonstrated that Leptospira infection stimulates early expression of CXCL2/MIP-2 and TNF-alpha in the resistant strain of mice. Histological analysis suggests that the expression of those molecules may be related to the influx of distinct immune cells and plays a role in the naturally acquired protective immunity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved