Sex-change rules, stock dynamics, and the performance of spawning-per-recruit measures in protogynous stocks

Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change

The effects of size-selective fisheries on the stock dynamics of and sperm limitation in sex-changing fish

Fisheries models have traditionally focused on patterns of growth, fecundity, and survival of fish. However, reproductive rates are the outcome of a variety of interconnected factors such as life-history strategies, mating patterns, population sex ratio, social interactions, and individual fecundity and fertility. Behaviorally appropriate models are necessary to understand stock dynamics and predict the success of management strategies. Protogynous sex-changing fish present a challenge for management because size-selective fisheries can drastically reduce reproductive rates. We present a general framework using an individual-based simulation model to determine the effect of life-history pattern, sperm production, mating system, and management strategy on stock dynamics. We apply this general approach to the specific question of how size-selective fisheries that remove mainly males will impact the stock dynamics of a protogynous population with fixed sex change compared to an otherwise identical dioecious population. In this dioecious population, we kept all aspects of the stock constant except for the pattern of sex determination (i.e. whether the species changes sex or is dioecious). Protogynous stocks with fixed sex change are predicted to be very sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern. If all male size classes are fished, protogynous populations are predicted to crash even at relatively low fishing mortality. When some male size classes escape fishing, we predict that the mean population size of sex-changing stocks will decrease proportionally less than the mean population size of dioecious species experiencing the same fishing mortality. For protogynous species, spawning-per-recruit measures that ignore fertilization rates are not good indicators of the impact of fishing on the population. Decreased mating aggregation size is predicted to lead to an increased effect of sperm limitation at constant fishing mortality and effort. Marine protected areas have the potential to mitigate some effects of fishing on sperm limitation in sex-changing populations

An ecosystem-based approach to management: using individual behaviour to predict the indirect effects of Antarctic krill fisheries on penguin foraging

Summary 1. Changes in species\u27 abundance and distributions caused by human disturbances can have indirect effects on other species in a community. Although ecosystem approaches to management are becoming increasingly prevalent, they require a fuller understand- ing of how individual behaviour determines interactions within and between species. 2. Ecological interactions involving krill are of major importance to many species within the Antarctic. Despite extensive knowledge of the ecosystem that they occupy, there is still incomplete understanding of the links between species and the effect of environmental conditions on these interactions. In this study, we extended a behavioural model used previously to understand the interactions between penguins and krill to determine the indirect effect of krill fisheries on penguin foraging success and behaviour in adjacent breeding sites. 3. Increased fishing pressure offshore is predicted to reduce penguin food intake. Given the documented links between krill and penguins, this also leads to a prediction of decreased penguin survival and reproduction. Krill behaviour is predicted to cause stronger effects of krill fisheries than explained solely by the percentage of biomass removed. Environmental conditions that decrease krill growth rates or cause krill to spend time in deeper water are also predicted to increase the magnitude of the effect of fishing on penguin success. We show that changes in penguin foraging behaviour can be used to assess the impact of local fisheries on penguin reproductive success. 4. Synthesis and applications . These results demonstrate that an understanding of predator-prey interactions, indirect effects between species, and individual behaviour is imperative to our ability to manage populations. We describe a general method to use what is known about ecological and evolutionary processes with species-specific information to predict the response of organisms to novel situations. We further show how individual behaviour can be used to assess the impact of human disturbance on ecosystems

Combined inhibition of Bcl-2/Bcl-xL and Usp9X/Bag3 overcomes apoptotic resistance in glioblastoma in vitro and in vivo

Despite great efforts taken to advance therapeutic measures for patients with glioblastoma, the clinical prognosis remains grim. The antiapoptotic Bcl-2 family protein Mcl-1 is overexpressed in glioblastoma and represents an important resistance factor to the BH-3 mimetic ABT263. In this study, we show that combined treatment with ABT263 and GX15-070 overcomes apoptotic resistance in established glioblastoma cell lines, glioma stem-like cells and primary cultures. Moreover, this treatment regimen also proves to be advantageous in vivo. On the molecular level, GX15-070 enhanced apoptosis by posttranslational down-regulation of the deubiquitinase, Usp9X, and the chaperone Bag3, leading to a sustained depletion of Mcl-1 protein levels. Moreover, knock-down of Usp9X or Bag3 depleted endogenous Mcl-1 protein levels and in turn enhanced apoptosis induced through Bcl-2/Bcl-xL inhibition. In conclusion, combined treatment with ABT263 and GX15-070 results in a significantly enhanced anti-cancer activity in vitro as well as in vivo in the setting of glioblastoma. Both drugs, ABT263 and GX15-070 have been evaluated in clinical studies which facilitates the translational aspect of taking this combinatorial approach to the clinical setting. Furthermore we present a novel mechanism by which GX15-070 counteracts Mcl-1 expression which may lay a foundation for a novel target in cancer therapy

A RT-qPCR system using a degenerate probe for specific identification and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variants of concern

Fast surveillance strategies are needed to control the spread of new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and gain time for evaluation of their pathogenic potential. This was essential for the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) that replaced the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) and is currently the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating worldwide. RT-qPCR strategies complement whole genome sequencing, especially in resource lean countries, but mutations in the targeting primer and probe sequences of new emerging variants can lead to a failure of the existing RT-qPCRs. Here, we introduced an RT-qPCR platform for detecting the Delta- and the Omicron variant simultaneously using a degenerate probe targeting the key ΔH69/V70 mutation in the spike protein. By inclusion of the L452R mutation into the RT-qPCR platform, we could detect not only the Delta and the Omicron variants, but also the Omicron sub-lineages BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5. The RT-qPCR platform was validated in small- and large-scale. It can easily be incorporated for continued monitoring of Omicron sub-lineages, and offers a fast adaption strategy of existing RT-qPCRs to detect new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants using degenerate probes.</p

Different epidemiology of bloodstream infections in COVID-19 compared to non-COVID-19 critically ill patients: A descriptive analysis of the Eurobact II study

Background: The study aimed to describe the epidemiology and outcomes of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HABSIs) between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 critically ill patients. Methods: We used data from the Eurobact II study, a prospective observational multicontinental cohort study on HABSI treated in ICU. For the current analysis, we selected centers that included both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 critically ill patients. We performed descriptive statistics between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 in terms of patients’ characteristics, source of infection and microorganism distribution. We studied the association between COVID-19 status and mortality using multivariable fragility Cox models. Results: A total of 53 centers from 19 countries over the 5 continents were eligible. Overall, 829 patients (median age 65 years [IQR 55; 74]; male, n = 538 [64.9%]) were treated for a HABSI. Included patients comprised 252 (30.4%) COVID-19 and 577 (69.6%) non-COVID-19 patients. The time interval between hospital admission and HABSI was similar between both groups. Respiratory sources (40.1 vs. 26.0%, p < 0.0001) and primary HABSI (25.4% vs. 17.2%, p = 0.006) were more frequent in COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 patients had more often enterococcal (20.5% vs. 9%) and Acinetobacter spp. (18.8% vs. 13.6%) HABSIs. Bacteremic COVID-19 patients had an increased mortality hazard ratio (HR) versus non-COVID-19 patients (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.49–2.45). Conclusions: We showed that the epidemiology of HABSI differed between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Enterococcal HABSI predominated in COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 patients with HABSI had elevated risk of mortality. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.org number NCT03937245. Registered 3 May 2019

Visual inspection with acetic acid as a cervical cancer test: accuracy validated using latent class analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to validate the accuracy of an alternative cervical cancer test – visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) – by addressing possible imperfections in the gold standard through latent class analysis (LCA). The data were originally collected at peri-urban health clinics in Zimbabwe.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Conventional accuracy (sensitivity/specificity) estimates for VIA and two other screening tests using colposcopy/biopsy as the reference standard were compared to LCA estimates based on results from all four tests. For conventional analysis, negative colposcopy was accepted as a negative outcome when biopsy was not available as the reference standard. With LCA, local dependencies between tests were handled through adding direct effect parameters or additional latent classes to the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two models yielded good fit to the data, a 2-class model with two adjustments and a 3-class model with one adjustment. The definition of latent disease associated with the latter was more stringent, backed by three of the four tests. Under that model, sensitivity for VIA (abnormal+) was 0.74 compared to 0.78 with conventional analyses. Specificity was 0.639 versus 0.568, respectively. By contrast, the LCA-derived sensitivity for colposcopy/biopsy was 0.63.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>VIA sensitivity and specificity with the 3-class LCA model were within the range of published data and relatively consistent with conventional analyses, thus validating the original assessment of test accuracy. LCA probably yielded more likely estimates of the true accuracy than did conventional analysis with in-country colposcopy/biopsy as the reference standard. Colpscopy with biopsy can be problematic as a study reference standard and LCA offers the possibility of obtaining estimates adjusted for referent imperfections.</p

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure &lt; 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt; 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation