Long-Term Consequences of Technological Development: Italian Case Study

The Food and Agriculture Program at IIASA focuses its research activities on understanding the nature and dimension of the world's food situation and problems, on exploring possible alternative policies which could improve the present situation in the short and long term, and on investigating the consequences of such policies at various levels -- global, national and regional -- and in various time horizons. One part of the research activities focussed on investigations of alternative paths of technology transformation in agriculture with respect to resource limitations and environmental consequences in the long term. The general approach and methodology developed for this investigation is being applied in several case studies on the regional level. The reason for the studies is not only to validate the general methodology but also to develop an applicable tool for detailed investigations for a particular region which could then be applied on a number of similar regions. Furthermore, some specific aspects are being addressed in all these case studies which has been initiated within the IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program. This will allow the behavior of various systems to be compared, according to the selected aspects, and analyzed (in different social, economic and natural resource conditions) according to the selected aspects. One of the case studies is being carried out for the Mugelo region (Italy). This paper describes the first phase of the study, the problem, the formulation of goals, and the basic methodological framework

Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

International audienceThe damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon) over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon), to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction systems based on Linux cluster architectures

The progress in weather forecast and atmospheric science has been always closely linked to the improvement of computing technology. In order to have more accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions, more powerful computing resources are needed, in addition to more complex and better-performing numerical models. To overcome such a large computing request, powerful workstations or massive parallel systems have been used. In the last few years, parallel architectures, based on the Linux operating system, have been introduced and became popular, representing real“high performance–low cost” systems. In this work the Linux cluster experience achieved at the Laboratory for Meteorology and Environmental Analysis (LaMMA-CNR-IBIMET) is described and tips and performances analysed

Training programme for the dissemination of climatological and meteorological applications using GIS technology

International audienceIBIMET-CNR is involved in making different research projects and in managing operational programmes on national and international level and has acquired a relevant training competence to sustain partner countries and improve their methodological and operational skills by using innovative tools, such as Geographical Information Systems focused on the development of meteorological and climatological applications. Training activities are mainly addressed to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Partner-Countries and/or to other Specialized Centers in the frame of Cooperation Programmes promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs mainly in favour of the Less Developing Countries (LDC) of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Association I (Africa). The Institute, as a branch of the WMO-Regional Meteorological Training Centre for Region VI (Europe), organizes also international training courses of high-level in Meteorology, Climatology and Remote Sensing applied to environment and agriculture fields. Moreover, considering the increasing evolution of the GIS functions for meteorological information users, IBIMET has promoted in 2005 the EU COST Action 719 Summer School on "GIS applications in meteorology and climatology''. The paper offers an overview of the main institute training programmes organised to share the results of research activities and operational projects, through the exploitation of innovative technologies and tools like GIS