Spatial Dependence and Economic Growth: Evidence from a panel of Countries

The empirical literature about economic growth has usually ignored spatial interdependence among countries. This paper uses spatial econometrics to estimates a growth model that includes cross-country interdependence, in whitch a country's economic growth depends on the growth rate of its neighbords. Based on a sample of 98 countries over three decades (1965-75,1975-85, 1985-95) we find that espatial relationschip across countries are quite relevant. A country's economic growt is indeed affected by the perfomance of its neighbors and then influenced by its own geographical position. This results suggests that the spillover effects among countries are important for growth.Our results indicate that spatial interrelation can not be ignored in the analysis of economic growth. Ignoring such relationships can result in model misspecification.Spatial economterics, economic growth, interdependence.

Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model

In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian economy remains in the sustainable growth regime most of the time. The turning points from the Markov switching model capture very well the behavior of real output through time. In fact, they identify the four main depressions of the century.Markov switching regime model, economic growth, fluctuations, Colombia

Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925-2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per capita economic growth, and two different levels in the data associated with depression and sustainable growth regimes were identified. In addition, the hypothesis of fixed probabilities is rejected in favour of the time-varying transitional probabilities, meaning that the correct model is the one with endogenous probabilities, when the probability of remaining in the sustainable growth regime increases with a rise in terms of trade, government expenditures and decreases with capital outflows. On the other hand, increases in government expenditures and terms of trade decrease the probability of being in the depression state while an increase in capital outflows raises such probability. Finally, we found that TVTP model gives more information than FTP model because the probabilities have changed significantly during the period under analysis and the explanatory variables are very informative in dating the evolution of the state of the economy, especially those associated with external shocks.Markov endogenous switching regime model, Time-varying transition probabilities, economic growth, Colombia. Classification JEL: O40; C22; E32; N16.

Los ferrocarriles y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana

Editada en la Fundación Empresa PúblicaRecientemente en Colombia ha surgido el interés por explicar los acontecimientos de la historia económica del país dentro del enfoque de la cliometría. Sin embargo, el análisis del transporte y su influencia sobre el desarrollo económico nacional no ha recibido suficiente atención. Este ensayo busca cubrir tal deficiencia; después de todo, éste es un tema central en el estudio de la historia económica de un país. El trabajo proporciona una nueva base de datos que contribuye al estudio del desarroUo del transporte terrestte en Colombia. El aporte principal del estudio consiste en demostrar que los ferrocarriles no jugarían un papel fundamental en el desarroUo de la economía colombiana.Recently in Colombia has emerged a new interest in explaining some facts in economic history within the context of cliometrics. However, the analysis of transportation infrastructure and its impact on the Colombian`s economic development has not received enough attention. The objective of this paper is to close this gap, after all transportation developments is a central topic in the study of country's economic history. This paper provides a new datábase that contribute to the study of transportation developments in Colombia. The main contribution is to demonstrate that railroads did not play an overwhelming role in Colombia's economy during the fírst half of the twentieth century.Publicad

Colombia and East Asia Trade Relations and Future Prospects: An Analysis Using a CGE Model

This paper provides an empirical analysis of Colombian integration with East Asia using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, in which we assess the effects of several trade liberalization scenarios on trade flows and welfare. The results show that there is an important potential for the development of Colombian exports of other crops, chemical products, apparel and textiles to East Asian nations. This result is not derived from subcribing a Free Trade Agreemente, but from unilaterally liberalizing tariffs in both regions.Computable General Equilibrium models, trade relations

The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence

The demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates was one of the most important structural changes during the twentieth Century in most Latin American economies. This paper uses a simple economic framework based on Galor and Weil (2000) for understanding the main forces behind this structural transition; namely, increases in the returns to human capital accumulation driven by continuous advances in productivity led families to reduce the number of offspring and increase the level of investment in their education. As a result, the economy transits from a stage of stagnation subject to Malthusian forces to a stage of sustained economic growth, where increases in productivity lead to improvements in living standards. We use available data for Colombia between 1905 and 2005 to test the main predictions of the model with time series analysis, finding empirical evidence in their favor.Economic Growth, Demographic Transition, Colombia. Classification JEL: C32; J11; N36; O40; O54.

Estudio de los efectos de un taller de apoyo educativo para maestros de educación básica

El conocimiento requerido por los profesores para enseñar Matemáticas mediante una práctica docente eficaz necesita un constante fortalecimiento, por lo que es indispensable que el profesor trabaje en su propia superación profesional de diversas formas, una de ellas es a través de la reflexión constante con sus compañeros de escuela. La presente investigación indaga el Conocimiento Matemático para la Enseñanza que posee un grupo de maestros de educación básica, la relación de este conocimiento con su labor profesional y las posibilidades de mejorar dicho conocimiento a través de la reflexión compartida de la práctica docente mediante un taller de apoyo educativo

Downward Wage Rigidities and Other Firms’ Responses to an Economic Slowdown: Evidence from a Survey of Colombian Firms

This paper uses a wage setting survey of 1,305 Colombian firms to explore the nature and sources of wage rigidities. This is the first study of a non-European emerging economy that uses evidence from a survey of firms to analyse this topic. The survey was carried out during the first half of 2009, when the Colombian economy was showing signs of a slowdown in economic activity and increasing unemployment. The sample is fully representative of the population under study. The results provide evidence of nominal and real downward wage rigidities in the country. The most important factor in not reducing base wages during an economic slowdown is to avoid the loss of more experienced and productive workers, which is related to the efficiency wage theory in its adverse selection version. In addition, ordered logit regressions were used to determine what factors are related to wage rigidities. The findings indicate that, in general, permanent contracts, workforce composition, labour intensity and the presence of collective agreements play an important role in explaining wage rigidities in the country.Wage rigidities, survey evidence, efficiency wages, Colombia, labour market, ordered logit. Classification JEL: C25, J30, J50