The positive externalities of an art museum. A zero-truncated Poisson approach

Only in the 80’s cultural activity has began to be viewed as a part of tourism (OECD, 2009). The UNWTO estimated that cultural tourism accounted for 40% of all international tourism, up from 37% in 1995 (Mintel, 2011). Museums play a relevant role as repositories of education, social cohesion and personal development. They are a stimulus for the economy, since culture consumers generally have a higher spending propensity than other consumers’ segments (Europa Inform, 2004). Museums are expected to produce positive externalities that can be called cultural spill-over. A museum will not benefit only the public (private) investor but society as a whole because new knowledge will enter society’s pool of cultural knowledge. This study predicts the repeat visitation to the MART of Rovereto, one of the most important museums of modern and contemporary art in Italy. The survey data were obtained during autumn 2009 on site. Via a zero-truncated Poisson estimation, a positive effect on the odds of having a repeat visitation to the museum, is given by either the presence of a temporary exposition or a permanent and temporary exposition; the probability to revisit the museum within the same year; visitation of the annex “Casa Deperoâ€, an important futurist arts exposition, restored in January 2009; visitation of any other city that hosted MART. Negative effects on the odds are given by the distance; number of people travelling with the interviewed visitor; the probability to recommend the museum to friends and family.

A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy

Nowadays many developing countries focus on economic policies for promoting international tourism and exports expansion as a potential source of economic growth of the country. However, the understanding of the relationship between exports and economic growth is still ongoing. When treating the relationship between tourism and economic growth, considering tourism as a non-traditional export few studies have been published to date. This paper has the objective to assess if exports and tourism have really promoted growth by means of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) and the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The cases under analysis are Spain and Italy, two of the most important countries worldwide regarding the expansion of tourism. Cointegration techniques and the multivariate Granger causality test are applied. Results reveal that exports cause economic growth in the long-term for both countries, whilst only for Spain tourism appears as a factor which influences economic growth in the lon-run.Economic Growth, Exports, Tourism, Cointegration, Multivariate Granger Causality, Spain, Italy

Quantitative forecasting for tourisme: OLS and ARIMAX approaches

The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts the demand for international and domestic tourism to Sardinia (Italy). Monthly data are used for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Concepts such as seasonal and long run unit roots are employed. Two econometric approaches, the OLS and ARIMAX, are used that give satisfactory results in terms of both the estimation and forecasting phases. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for tourism demand to Sardinia for the period between January and December 2003

A discrete choice approach to model credit card fraud

This paper analyses the demographic, socio-economics and banking specific determinants that influence the risk of fraud in a portfolio of credit cards. The data are from recent account archives for cards issued throughout Italy. A logit framework is employed that incorporates cards at a risk of fraud as the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables (e.g. gender, location, credit line, number of transactions in euros and in non euros currency). The empirical results provide useful indicators on the factors that are responsible for potential risk of fraud.credit card; fraud; demographic and socio-economics factors; logit modelling.

Visitors' experience in a modern art museum: a structural equation model

This study aims to provide a better understanding on the museum experience by studying visitors’ motivation, satisfaction and likelihood to return to the Museum for Modern and Contemporary Art (MART) of Rovereto (Italy). The empirical data were obtained from a survey undertaken from September to November 2009. A theoretical model to analyze the attractiveness factors of the museum based on two exogenous variables (push and pull motivation) and two endogenous variables (satisfaction and loyalty) is used and a structural equation model is estimated as a confirmatory tool of the hypothetical model. The findings reveal that tourists visiting the MART are mainly motivated by push factors, as relaxation, looking for a new experience and learn new things. Loyalty also positively influences the probability to return to the MART and recommend to friends and family. However, visit the city or the region of Trentino has no impact on satisfaction and loyalty to the MART. Besides, loyalty to MART does not imply the probability to recommend a visit to Rovereto

Does more crime mean fewer jobs? An ARDL model

This paper analyses how a set of economic variables and a deterrence variable affect criminal activity. Furthermore, it highlights the extent to which crime is detrimental for the economic activity. The case study is Italy for the time span 1970 up to 2004. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags approach is employed to assess the cointegration status of the variables under investigation. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main finding is that all crime typologies, but homicides and fraud, have a crowding-out effect on legal economic activity, reducing the employment rate

Potential users’ preferences towards cardiac telemedicine: a discrete choice experiment investigation in Sardinia

Background: Potential users’ preferences for telemedicine services directed to cardio-vascular diseases are investigated applying a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Given the potential of telemedicine to minimize costs without reducing overall efficiency, assessing preferences for these types of services represents a priority for policy makers. This is especially true for those pathologies that absorb a relatively high quota of total health expenditure. The empirical setting is Sardinia (Italy) because of its insularity and the underdeveloped internal transport network. Telemedicine is likely to mitigate distance between healthcare providers and final users. Methods: A survey conducted between February and May 2013 was administered to a selected Sardinian population older than 18 (potential users) through face-to-face interviews. A discrete choice experiment was implemented and four attributes (i.e. scanning mode, location, waiting list and cost) assess in what measure these influence potential users’ utility by using a random parameter modelling with heterogeneity (RPH). Results: The empirical findings, based on 2000 interviews, highlight that potential users are not very open to the application of telemedicine services in cardiology, mostly preferring the intromoenia (visit at the hospital) and private system. Besides, remarkable individual heterogeneity has been found. Conclusions: Potential users see the implementation of new technologies in healthcare with a certain caution. However, the relatively higher preferences towards services provided at their own municipality suggests that there is ground to explore further the implementation of telemedicine services through the family doctor and local pharmacy

Tourism and Exports as a means of Growth

This study expands existing research by considering both exports and tourism as potential influencing factors for economic growth. While trade of goods has been proven as a means of growth for countries, inbound tourism as non-traditional exports, has been scarcely examined in the literature. Using data for Italy and Spain over the period 1954-2000 and 1964-2000 respectively, both exports of goods and tourism exports are included in the same model. Standard cointegration and Granger causality techniques are applied. The main results reveal the significance of both exports and tourism towards long-term growth with some peculiarities for each country.Tourism, ELG Hypothesis, TLG Hypothesis, Trade, Growth

Assessing substitution and complementary effects amongst crime typologies

This paper aims at assessing how offenders allocate their effort amongst several crime typologies. Specifically, complementary and substitution effects are tested amongst number of recorded crimes. Furthermore, the extent to which crime is detrimental for economic growth is also tested. The case study is Italy and the time span under analysis is from 1981:1 up to 2004:4. A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. The main findings are that a bi-directional complementary effect exists between drug related crimes and receiving, whereas a bi-directional substitution effect is detected between robberies, extortions and kidnapping and homicides and falsity, respectively. Furthermore, economic growth produces a positive effect on the growth of homicides, receiving and drug related crimes; while, the growth in robberies, extortion and kidnapping and falsity have a crowding-out effect on economic growth