Social/health maintenance organization and fee-for-service health outcomes over time.

Evaluating the performance of long-term care (LTC) demonstrations requires longitudinal assessment of multiple outcomes where selective mortality and disenrollment, if not accounted for, can give the appearance of reduced (or enhanced) efficacy. We assessed outcomes in social/health maintenance organizations (S/HMOs) and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) care using a multivariate model to estimate active life expectancy (ALE). S/HMO enrollees and samples of FFS clients in four sites were analyzed and outcome differences assessed for a 3-year period. Results provide insights into S/HMO performance under different conditions and, more generally, into evaluating LTC demonstrations without randomized client and control groups

Multidimensional Profiles of Health Status: An Application of the Grade of Membership Model to the World Health Survey

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted the World Health Survey (WHS) between 2002 and 2004 in 70 countries to provide cross-population comparable data on health, health-related outcomes and risk factors. The aim of this study was to apply Grade of Membership (GoM) modelling as a means to condense extensive health information from the WHS into a set of easily understandable health profiles and to assign the degree to which an individual belongs to each profile. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper described the application of the GoM models to summarize population health status using World Health Survey data. Grade of Membership analysis is a flexible, non-parametric, multivariate method, used to calculate health profiles from WHS self-reported health state and health conditions. The WHS dataset was divided into four country economic categories based on the World Bank economic groupings (high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low income economies) for separate GoM analysis. Three main health profiles were produced for each of the four areas: I. Robust; II. Intermediate; III. Frail; moreover population health, wealth and inequalities are defined for countries in each economic area as a means to put the health results into perspective. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses have provided a robust method to better understand health profiles and the components which can help to identify healthy and non-healthy individuals. The obtained profiles have described concrete levels of health and have clearly delineated characteristics of healthy and non-healthy respondents. The GoM results provided both a useable way of summarising complex individual health information and a selection of intermediate determinants which can be targeted for interventions to improve health. As populations' age, and with limited budgets for additional costs for health care and social services, applying the GoM methods may assist with identifying higher risk profiles for decision-making and resource allocations

Multidimensional Profiles of Health Status: An Application of the Grade of Membership Model to the World Health Survey

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted the World Health Survey (WHS) between 2002 and 2004 in 70 countries to provide cross-population comparable data on health, health-related outcomes and risk factors. The aim of this study was to apply Grade of Membership (GoM) modelling as a means to condense extensive health information from the WHS into a set of easily understandable health profiles and to assign the degree to which an individual belongs to each profile. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper described the application of the GoM models to summarize population health status using World Health Survey data. Grade of Membership analysis is a flexible, non-parametric, multivariate method, used to calculate health profiles from WHS self-reported health state and health conditions. The WHS dataset was divided into four country economic categories based on the World Bank economic groupings (high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low income economies) for separate GoM analysis. Three main health profiles were produced for each of the four areas: I. Robust; II. Intermediate; III. Frail; moreover population health, wealth and inequalities are defined for countries in each economic area as a means to put the health results into perspective. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses have provided a robust method to better understand health profiles and the components which can help to identify healthy and non-healthy individuals. The obtained profiles have described concrete levels of health and have clearly delineated characteristics of healthy and non-healthy respondents. The GoM results provided both a useable way of summarising complex individual health information and a selection of intermediate determinants which can be targeted for interventions to improve health. As populations' age, and with limited budgets for additional costs for health care and social services, applying the GoM methods may assist with identifying higher risk profiles for decision-making and resource allocations

Recent trends in chronic disease, impairment and disability among older adults in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To examine concurrent prevalence trends of chronic disease, impairment and disability among older adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed the 1998, 2004 and 2008 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older adults in the United States, and included 31,568 community dwelling adults aged 65 and over. Measurements include: prevalence of chronic diseases including hypertension, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, chronic lung disease and arthritis; prevalence of impairments, including impairments of cognition, vision, hearing, mobility, and urinary incontinence; prevalence of disability, including activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of older adults reporting no chronic disease decreased from 13.1% (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12.4%-13.8%) in 1998 to 7.8% (95% CI, 7.2%-8.4%) in 2008, whereas the proportion reporting 1 or more chronic diseases increased from 86.9% (95% CI, 86.2%-89.6%) in 1998 to 92.2% (95% CI, 91.6%-92.8%) in 2008. In addition, the proportion reporting 4 or more diseases increased from 11.7% (95% CI, 11.0%-12.4%) in 1998 to 17.4% (95% CI, 16.6%-18.2%) in 2008. The proportion of older adults reporting no impairments was 47.3% (95% CI, 46.3%-48.4%) in 1998 and 44.4% (95% CI, 43.3%-45.5%) in 2008, whereas the proportion of respondents reporting 3 or more was 7.2% (95% CI, 6.7%-7.7%) in 1998 and 7.3% (95% CI, 6.8%-7.9%) in 2008. The proportion of older adults reporting any ADL or IADL disability was 26.3% (95% CI, 25.4%-27.2%) in 1998 and 25.4% (95% CI, 24.5%-26.3%) in 2008.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Multiple chronic disease is increasingly prevalent among older U.S. adults, whereas the prevalence of impairment and disability, while substantial, remain stable.</p

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Education in Time: Cohort Differences in Educational Attainment in African-American Twins

OBJECTIVES:Educational opportunities for African-Americans expanded throughout the 20(th) century. Twin pairs are an informative population in which to examine changes in educational attainment because each twin has the same parents and childhood socioeconomic status. We hypothesized that correlation in educational attainment of older twin pairs would be higher compared to younger twin pairs reflecting changes in educational access over time and potentially reflecting a "ceiling effect" associated with Jim Crow laws and discrimination. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We used data from 211 same-sex twin pairs (98 identical, 113 fraternal) in the Carolina African-American Twin Study of Aging who were identified through birth records. Participants completed an in-person interview. The twins were predominantly female (61%), with a mean age of 50 years (SD = 0.5). We found that older age groups had a stronger intra-twin correlation of attained educational level. Further analysis across strata revealed a trend across zygosity, with identical twins demonstrating more similar educational attainment levels than did their fraternal twin counterparts, suggesting a genetic influence. DISCUSSION:These findings suggest that as educational opportunities broadened in the 20th century, African-Americans gained access to educational opportunities that better matched their individual abilities

Labor force participation in later life: Evidence from a cross-sectional study in Thailand

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The labor force participation rate is an important indicator of the state of the labor market and a major input into the economy's potential for creating goods and services. The objectives of this paper are to examine the prevalence of labor force participation among older people in Thailand and to investigate the factors affecting this participation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data for this study were drawn from the '2007 Survey of Older Persons' in Thailand. Bivariate analysis was used to identify the factors associated with labor force participation. The variables were further examined using multivariate analysis in order to identify the significant predictors of the likelihood of older people participating in the labor force, after controlling for other variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, 30,427 elderly people aged 60 or above were interviewed. More than a third (35%) of all respondents had participated in the labor force during the seven days preceding the survey. Respondents who were female (OR = 0.56), those who were older (OR = 0.47 for 70-79 and 0.21 for 80+ years), those who were widowed/divorced (OR = 0.85), those who were living with their children (OR = 0.69), those whose family income was relatively low, and those who worked in government sectors (OR = 0.33) were less likely to participate in the labor force than were their counterparts. On the other hand, those who lived in urban areas (OR = 1.2), those who had a low level of education (OR, secondary level 1.8, primary 2.4, and no schooling 2.5), those who were the head of the household (OR = 1.9), and those who were in debt (OR = 2.3) were more likely be involved in the labor force than their comparison groups. Furthermore, respondents who experienced greater difficulty in daily living, those who suffered from more chronic diseases, and those who assessed their health as poor were less likely to participate in the labor force than their counterparts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Labor force participation in their advanced years is not uncommon among the Thai elderly. The results suggest that improving the health status of the elderly is necessary in order to encourage their employment. By doing so, the country can fulfill the labor shortage and further improve the economic condition of the nation. The results of this study also suggest that for policies encouraging employment among older persons to succeed, special focus on the rural elderly is necessary.</p

Cost of managing an episode of relapse in multiple sclerosis in the United States

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the direct medical US cost of managing multiple sclerosis relapses. METHODS: Direct data analysis and cost modeling were employed to derive typical resource use profiles and costs in 2002 US dollars, from the perspective of a third-party payer responsible for comprehensive health-care. The location and scope of health care services provided over a 90-day period were used to define three levels of relapse management. Hospitalization and resulting subsequent care was defined as high intensity management. A medium level of intervention was defined as either use of the emergency room, an observational unit, or administration of acute treatments, such as intravenous methylprednisolone in an outpatient or home setting. The lowest intensity of care comprised physician office visits and symptom-related medications. Data were obtained from many sources including all payer inpatient, ambulatory and emergency room databases from several states, fee schedules, government reports, and literature. All charges were adjusted using cost-to-charge ratios. RESULTS: Average cost per person for high management level was $12,870, based on analysis of 4,634 hospital cases (mean age 48 years, 73$1,847 and mild episode $243. CONCLUSIONS: Management strategies leading to a reduction in the frequency and severity of a relapse, less reliance on inpatient care, or increased access to steroid infusions in the home, would have a substantial impact on the economic consequences of managing relapses