Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Evaluation of Earthquake Cloud Model By Estimating Correlation Coefficient Between Earthquake Events and Theirs Predictions in Iran at The Fourth Quarter of 2009

The earthquake cloud model has invited based on Zhonghao Shou researches at year 2004. His earthquake predictions for USGS office from 1994 to 2003 have confirmed that application of this model with P>72%. While, in our country has not exhibited scientific assessment of this model since present. The main aim of this paper is the evaluation of earthquake cloud model to predicting frequencies of earthquake events at the limited time period. For this purpose has determined the earthquake frequencies with M≥2.5 Richter at Iran.  For the compilation of database were used two references: meteorological satellite images with a half-hour time series and seismological bulletin of occurred earthquakes catalogue for months October to December 2009. Firstly were determined the earthquake clouds on meteorological satellite images for distinguished time period. Then earthquake clouds have geo-referenced in networking map of Iran using GIS with pixels 2×°2° in WGS coordinate system. Finally the correlation ratio between adapted of occurred earthquakes in the corresponding pixels with the density of earthquake clouds was showed significant rate R=0.837 and R2=0.7. Also the findings of this paper showed that the earthquake cloud model has the ability to forecasting 69% of all earthquakes in Iran with M≥2.5 Richter

Evaluation of Geomorphological Evidences for Possible Impact Crater of Zirouki in Sistan and Baluchestan, SE Iran

Despite the extensive studies on geomorphological phenomena in Iran, since investigation of meteorite impact craters h not been considered. Based on both remote sensing technique and field work we have recognized the circular structure of Zirouki crater in the Samsour desert, southeast of Iran, which is claimed by MansouriDaneshvar and Bagherzadeh as possible impact crater on 2011 and 2013. The Zirouki crater is defined as one of potential impact sites by Baratoux et al, (2012) and registered as first possible impact carter of Iran in Expert Database on Earth Impact Structures (Web Encyclopedia on Natural Hazards, Novosibirsk, Russia). When the crater confirmed as an impact structure then would be the third impact structure candidate in the Middle East after the Wabar craters in Saudia Arabia and Jebel Waqf as Suwwan in Jordan. Investigation of the possible impact structure of Zirouki crater was done using the geomorphological interpretations in different levels of topographical, geophysical, geological and petrographical studies. The main results of the present study revealed that quite obvious crater shape morphology with mounded rims and a central uplift projection; as well geophysical pattern provided very strong evidence for possible impact structure, indicating the presence of circular negative gravity anomaly at the whole of the craterwhich distinct it from igneous patterns and other erosive forms

Survey of a relationship between precipitation and major earthquakes along the Peru-Chilean trench (2000–2015)

In this study, the possible relationship between anomalous precipitation and five very large earthquakes along the Peruvian- Chilean trench (2001/06/23 M8.4, 2007/08/15 M8.0, 2010/02/27 M8.8, 2014/04/01 M8.2, and 2015/09/16 M8.3) is surveyed. A precipitation archive and earthquake database has been compiled for 2000–2015 for this part of South America. According to the mean daily precipitation data given by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), an anomalous increase in precipitation occurred within two months before these earthquakes over their respective epicentral areas. The mean 60-day total precipitation before these five earthquakes is 98.8 mm, while the mean 60-day total post-event precipitation is 51.5 mm. Other atmospheric parameters show a similar trend. Detailed results using different time intervals and spatial resolutions support the precipitation enhancement before the major earthquakes in different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, a positive meaningful relation seems to exist between earthquakes and precipitation before the main shocks (R = 0.711). On this basis, atmospheric anomalies and precipitation enhancement are indicated, which include the appearance of cyclones that cause increased precipitation. This precursory phenomenon appears to be consistent with the Freund theory that specifically includes air ionization at the ground-to-air interface as a result of stress-activation of positive holes in the hypocentral rock volume, the spreading of these electronic charge carriers through the rock column, their arrival at the Earth’s surface, and air ionization

Egoists dilemma with fuzzy data

In this paper, we investigate the problems of consensus-making among individuals or organizations with multiple criteria for evaluating performance when the players are supposed to be egoistic and the score for each criterion for a player is supposed to be fuzzy number. We deal with problems with fuzzy parameters from the viewpoint of experts' imprecise or fuzzy understanding of the nature of parameters in a problem-formulation process. Egoistic means that each player sticks to his/her superiority regarding the criteria. The concept that is developed in optimization leads the problem to a dilemma called 'egoists dilemma'. We examine this dilemma using cooperative fuzzy game theory and propose a solution. The scheme developed in this paper can also be applied to attaining fair cost allocations as well as benefit-cost distributions for fuzzy data

An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and statistics

Abstract Background The climate change fact is intensive among the Middle East countries and especially Iran. Among the Middle East countries, Iran will experience an increase of 2.6 °C in mean temperatures and a 35% decline in precipitation in the next decades. In vice versa, Iran by total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions nearly to 616,741 million tons of CO2 is the first responsible country to climate change in the Middle East, and seventh in the world. The high-level contribution of Iran to emissions of GHG depends on a significant production of oil, gas, and rapid urbanization. The present study aimed to reveal an overview of climate change facts and statistics in Iran. Results In this manuscript, the evidential facts on climate change were investigated in global, regional, and national scales. For this purpose, the main increasing annual temperature and GHG emissions were considered. Besides, the variations of meteorological characteristics such as surface temperature, total precipitation, and upward longwave radiation (ULR) were reviewed in Iran indicating an anomalous decrease in precipitation events and anomalous increase in ULR and temperature characteristics confirming the global warming/climate change effects. Afterward, the legislative agreements on climate change concerning international adoptions and conventions were reviewed from Rio 1992 to NY 2016. Conclusions The results showed that further research and development should be considered the novel methods to explore renewable energy applications and to mitigate GHG emissions in order to overcome the increased risk of climate change effects. Technological affairs and international participants should support this target

Atmospheric Storm Anomalies Prior to Major Earthquakes in the Japan Region

Connections between atmospheric perturbations, e.g., thunderstorm activity, and major earthquakes are investigated along with the lithosphere–atmosphere coupling mechanism, concerning the earthquake prediction models. The present research attempts to recognize a possible link between atmospheric processes (rainfall, storms) and subsequent earthquakes (M > 6) across a wide area around Japan. Earthquake data and upper-atmosphere sounding data related to the Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) index and Skew-T plots were obtained from two Japanese radiosonde stations, Hachijojima and Kagoshima. Using the cross-correlation function (CCF) method, it is shown that SWEAT conditions existed within 30 days before six major earthquakes in 2017 in the Japan region. The Seismo-Climatic Index (SCI) reached a mean of 2.00, 7–8, and 13–14 days before these earthquakes, indicating thunderstorms and extreme weather conditions, further supported by Skew-T plots. Low-pressure systems, deviating from the mean by as much as −50 to −250 m, and hot spots of increased precipitation ranging from ~80 to ~140 mm rainfall within 24 h were observed to be geographically associated with these earthquake events. The anomalous atmospheric conditions can be understood based on increased air ionization at the ground-to-air interface due to the influx of positive-hole charge carriers that are stress-activated deep in the lithosphere and spread through the rock column. When the positive electronic charge carriers are accumulated at the lithosphere, preferentially at topographic highs, some steep electric fields are observed capable of field-ionizing the air. The airborne ions then act as condensation nuclei for atmospheric moisture, thermal updrafts, cloud formation, and a statistically significant precipitation increase. This research was conducted based on some experimental indicators in a very important seismological region to examine the successfulness of the proposed mechanism and the given indicators as the possible proxies of pre-earthquake precursors. Hence, the main practical implication of the research can highlight a sustainable way for improving the managerial tools in the field of earthquake prediction