Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. An important model input is the at-risk susceptible population, which can vary with a number of factors including climate, elevation, population density, and socio-economic status. We informed this initial condition using the highest historically reported dengue incidence modified by the probable dengue reporting rates in the chosen countries. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number, or the expected number of new human infections arising from a single infected human, to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.Comment: 35 pages, 16 figure

Maximizing object detection using sUAS

This paper examines optimal look-angles for a camera which is mounted on a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS), that provides for maximized object detection on the ground. Using a generic convolutional neural network (CNN), this research identifies the best angle for detecting a ground target from an aerial perspective. The study involves altering camera angles on an sUAS that is flown along a fixed trajectory and then determining the angle which provides the highest detection rate of predefined objects, which are emplaced at known locations on the ground. The experiment is conducted in simulation and validated on a physical quadcopter. The results of this paper directly influence the U.S. Army’s research efforts on training neural networks and developing object detection algorithms

Dietary Supplements for Improving Body Composition and Reducing Body Weight: Where Is the Evidence?

Weight-loss supplements typically fall into 1 of 4 categories depending on their hypothesized mechanism of action: products that block the absorption of fat or carbohydrate, stimulants that increase thermogenesis, products that change metabolism and improve body composition, and products that suppress appetite or give a sense of fullness. Each category is reviewed, and an overview of the current science related to their effectiveness is presented. While some weight-loss supplements produce modest effects (2 kg), especially in the long term. Some foods or supplements such as green tea, fiber, and calcium supplements or dairy products may complement a healthy lifestyle to produce small weight losses or prevent weight gain over time. Weight-loss supplements containing metabolic stimulants (e.g., caffeine, ephedra, synephrine) are most likely to produce adverse side effects and should be avoided.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Human Kinetics, Inc. and can be found at: http://journals.humankinetics.com/.Keywords: Starch blockers, Stimulants, Fat blockers, Exercise, Appetite suppressant

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States

The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities