Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Dynamic Ensemble Selection

Solar irradiance forecasting has been an essential topic in renewable energy generation. Forecasting is an important task because it can improve the planning and operation of photovoltaic systems, resulting in economic advantages. Traditionally, single models are employed in this task. However, issues regarding the selection of an inappropriate model, misspecification, or the presence of random fluctuations in the solar irradiance series can result in this approach underperforming. This paper proposes a heterogeneous ensemble dynamic selection model, named HetDS, to forecast solar irradiance. For each unseen test pattern, HetDS chooses the most suitable forecasting model based on a pool of seven well-known literature methods: ARIMA, support vector regression (SVR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), extreme learning machine (ELM), deep belief network (DBN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting (GB). The experimental evaluation was performed with four data sets of hourly solar irradiance measurements in Brazil. The proposed model attained an overall accuracy that is superior to the single models in terms of five well-known error metrics

IFNG +874T/A polymorphism is not associated with American tegumentary leishmaniasis susceptibility but can influence Leishmania induced IFN-γ production

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interferon-gamma is a key cytokine in the protective responses against intracellular pathogens. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) located in the first intron of the human IFN-γ gene can putatively influence the secretion of cytokine with an impact on infection outcome as demonstrated for tuberculosis and other complex diseases. Our aim was to investigate the putative association of IFNG+874T/A SNP with American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) and also the influence of this SNP in the secretion of IFN-γ <it>in vitro</it>.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Brazilian ATL patients (78 cutaneous, CL, and 58 mucosal leishmaniasis, ML) and 609 healthy volunteers were evaluated. The genotype of +874 region in the IFN-γ gene was carried out by Amplification Refractory Mutational System (ARMS-PCR). <it>Leishmania</it>-induced IFN-γ production on peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) culture supernatants was assessed by ELISA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There are no differences between +874T/A SNP frequency in cases and controls or in ML versus CL patients. Cutaneous leishmaniasis cases exhibiting AA genotype produced lower levels of IFN-γ than TA/TT genotypes. In mucosal cases, high and low IFN-γ producers were clearly demonstrated but no differences in the cytokine production was observed among the IFNG +874T or A carriers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that +874T/A polymorphism was not associated with either susceptibility or severity to leishmaniasis. Despite this, IFNG +874T/A SNP could be involved in the pathogenesis of leishmaniasis by influencing the amount of cytokine released by CL patients, although it could not prevent disease development. On the other hand, it is possible that in ML cases, other potential polymorphic regulatory genes such as TNF-α and IL-10 are also involved thus interfering with IFN-γ secretion.</p

High levels of T lymphocyte activation in Leishmania-HIV-1 co-infected individuals despite low HIV viral load

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Concomitant infections may influence HIV progression by causing chronic activation leading to decline in T-cell function. In the Americas, visceral (AVL) and tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) have emerged as important opportunistic infections in HIV-AIDS patients and both of those diseases have been implicated as potentially important co-factors in disease progression. We investigated whether leishmaniasis increases lymphocyte activation in HIV-1 co-infected patients. This might contribute to impaired cellular immune function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To address this issue we analyzed CD4⁺T absolute counts and the proportion of CD8⁺T cells expressing CD38 in <it>Leishmania</it>/HIV co-infected patients that recovered after anti-leishmanial therapy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that, despite clinical remission of leishmaniasis, AVL co-infected patients presented a more severe immunossupression as suggested by CD4⁺T cell counts under 200 cells/mm³, differing from ATL/HIV-AIDS cases that tends to show higher lymphocytes levels (over 350 cells/mm³). Furthermore, five out of nine, AVL/HIV-AIDS presented low CD4⁺T cell counts in spite of low or undetectable viral load. Expression of CD38 on CD8⁺T lymphocytes was significantly higher in AVL or ATL/HIV-AIDS cases compared to HIV/AIDS patients without leishmaniasis or healthy subjects.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>Leishmania </it>infection can increase the degree of immune system activation in individuals concomitantly infected with HIV. In addition, AVL/HIV-AIDS patients can present low CD4⁺T cell counts and higher proportion of activated T lymphocytes even when HIV viral load is suppressed under HAART. This fact can cause a misinterpretation of these laboratorial markers in co-infected patients.</p

Profile of Central and Effector Memory T Cells in the Progression of Chronic Human Chagas Disease

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection caused by protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi that affects approximately 11 million people in Latin America. The involvement of the host's immune response on the development of severe forms of Chagas disease has not been fully elucidated. Studies on the immune response against T. cruzi infection show that the immunoregulatory mechanisms are necessary to prevent the deleterious effect of excessive immune response stimulation and consequently the fatal outcome of the disease. A recall response against parasite antigens observed in in vitro peripheral blood cell culture clearly demonstrates that memory response is generated during infection. Memory T cells are heterogeneous and differ in both the ability to migrate and exert their effector function. This heterogeneity is reflected in the definition of central (TCM) and effector memory (TEM) T cells. Our results suggest that a balance between regulatory and effectors T cells may be important for the progression and development of the disease. Furthermore, the high percentage of central memory CD4+ T cells in indeterminate patients after stimulation suggests that these cells may modulate host's inflammatory response by controlling cell migration to tissues and their effector role during chronic phase of the disease