Correction to: Cluster identification, selection, and description in Cluster randomized crossover trials: the PREP-IT trials

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

School-based violence prevention strategy: a pilot evaluation

Abstract: Background: Violence has recently been reported among a primarily young, minority population in Nashville, Tennessee. School-based programs have been proven as effective methods of reducing violent behavior, beliefs, and actions that lead to violence among adolescents. Methods: Investigators implemented a rigorous search for an appropriate school-based violence prevention program for Metropolitan Nashville middle school students utilizing a systematic review and discussion group with victims of violence. 27 programs nation-wide were reviewed and 2 discussion groups with African American males under the age of 25 admitted to a level 1 trauma center for assault-related injuries were conducted. Our findings led to a single, evidence-based conflict resolution program. In conjunction with educators, we evaluated the program’s effectiveness in a pilot study in a Nashville middle school with high rates of violence. Results: 122 students completed the conflict resolution program and described their behavior and experiences with violence in a pre-test/post-test self-rate questionnaire. Results showed a significant decrease in violent behavior and an increase in students’ competencies to deal with violence (p less than 0.05). Conclusions: This study shows that a reduction in violent behavior and beliefs among middle school students can be achieved through the implementation of a targeted violence intervention program. A larger-scale intervention is needed to develop more conclusive evidence of effectiveness

Primary spinal epidural lymphomas

An epidural location for lymphoma is observed in 0.1–6.5% of all the lymphomas. Primary spinal epidural lymphoma (PSEL) is a subset of lymphomas, where there are no other recognizable sites of lymphomas at the time of diagnosis. The incidence of this subset of lymphomas is much less. It, however, is increasingly diagnosed, due to the increased use of more sensitive imaging modalities. For the electronic search, Pubmed was used to identify journals that enlisted and enumerated PSEL from 1961 to January 2011. The following combination of terms: “primary,” “spinal,” “epidural,” and “lymphoma” were used. The most significant articles and their bibliographies were analyzed by the authors. The symptoms, pathogenesis, diagnostic workup, histopathology, treatment, and outcome have been analyzed in a systematic manne

Factors Driving Readmissions in Tibia and Femur Fractures

As the American healthcare system shifts towards bundled payments, readmissions will become a measure of healthcare quality. The purpose of this study was to characterize readmission trends and factors influencing readmission in patients with diaphyseal femur and tibia fractures. Through a retrospective chart review, all patients who presented to a level 1 trauma center from 2004 to 2006 were evaluated. By using current procedural terminology codes, 1,040 patients with diaphyseal tibia or femur fractures fixed by IMN were identified. 645 patients were included for analysis. 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day readmission rates were compared with fracture type, reason for readmission, and basic demographic information. The 60-day readmission rate for open tibia fractures (14.8%) was significantly higher than the 60-day readmission rate for closed tibia fractures (8.0%) (p=0.037). When comparing reasons for 60-day readmissions, 50% of closed fractures were readmitted due to infection, while the other 50% needed additional surgery. 91.7% of open fractures readmitted in 60 days were due to infection. In a bundled payment system, orthopedic trauma must gain insight into drivers of readmission to identify those at risk for readmission and design effective healthcare plans for these patients

Open treatment of ankle fracture as inpatient increases risk of complication

Abstract Background Ankle fracture is one of the most common injuries treated by orthopaedic surgeons, and its incidence is only expected to rise with an aging population. It is also associated with often costly complications, yet there is little literature on risk factors, especially modifiable ones, driving these complications. The aim of this study is to reveal whether inpatient treatment after ankle fracture is associated with higher incidence of postoperative complications. As the USA moves towards a bundled payment healthcare system, it is imperative that orthopaedists maximize patient outcome and quality of care while also reducing overall costs. Materials and methods We used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to compare complication rates between inpatient and outpatient treatment of ankle fracture. We collected patient demographics, comorbidities, and postoperative complications from both groups, then compared treatments using a multinomial logistic regression model. Results We identified 7383 patients, with 2630 (36%) in the outpatient and 2630 (36%) in the inpatient group. Of these, 104 (4.0%) inpatients compared with 52 (2.0%) outpatients developed a complication (p < 0.001). Conclusions Inpatients developed major complications including deep wound infection and pulmonary embolism, as well as minor complications such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, at significantly greater rates. As reimbursement models begin to incorporate value-based care, orthopaedic surgeons need to be aware of factors associated with increased incidence of postoperative complications. Level of evidence Level III retrospective comparative study

The Costs of Operative Complications for Ankle Fractures: A Case Control Study

As our healthcare system moves towards bundling payments, it is vital to understand the potential financial implications associated with treatment of surgical complications. Considering that surgical treatment of ankle fractures is common, there remains minimal data relating costs to postsurgical intervention. We aimed to identify costs associated with ankle fracture complications through case-control analysis. Using retrospective analysis at a level I trauma center, 28 patients with isolated ankle fractures who developed complications (cases) were matched with 28 isolated ankle fracture patients without complications (controls) based on ASA score, age, surgery type, and fracture type. Patient charts were reviewed for demographics and complications leading to readmission/reoperation and costs were obtained from the financial department. Wilcoxon tests measured differences in the costs between the cases and controls. 28 out of 439 patients (6.4%) developed complications. Length of stay and median costs were significantly higher for cases than controls. Specifically, differences in total costs existed for infection and hardware-related pain. This is the first study to highlight the considerable costs associated with the treatment of complications due to isolated ankle fractures. Physicians must therefore emphasize methods to control surgical and nonsurgical factors that may impact postoperative complications, especially under a global payment system