Probabilistic Estimation of Site Specific Fault Displacements

The College of the Redwoods (CR) located near Eureka, California would like to upgrade a series of existing buildings that are unfortunately located on secondary faults associated with the active Little Salmon Fault (LSF) zone. In the early 1990’s a deterministic value of the maximum dip-slip displacement that had occurred on one of these secondary faults located beneath the southeast building corner of the former library was measured to be 1.7 feet. This displacement was resolved into approximately 1.5 feet horizontal offset and 0.8 feet of vertical offset, based on the secondary fault plane dip. Geologically, it has not been possible to establish the actual dates of the occurrence of the displacements on the observed faults, therefore it was assumed that they all had occurred within the last 11,000 years. The structural engineer for the project has indicated that it was not possible to design for the observed ground displacement of 1.7 feet. This limited study was undertaken to assess the variation of ground displacements that were observed over the area of ground occupied by CR’s Administration, Science, and former Library buildings. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reasonableness of using a deterministically determined maximum value of displacement in estimating, and designing mitigations for, the structural response, or whether a probabilistic approach could be utilized. The only data available within the limited time frame allowed for the study was from a series of trench logs made as part of a project for locating building sites on the campus in the early 1990’s. As a first step the frequency distributions of both horizontal and vertical displacements located in a volume of soil comprising the area occupied by the above buildings to a depth of 14 feet were examined. The 14 feet was the maximum depth of the trenches used to provide data for the study. Probability density functions (PDF) versus displacements were developed based on the frequency distributions. The area under the PDF curves between given displacement intervals represents the probability of occurrence (POC) of that displacement. A cumulative probability of occurrence for a displacement interval can be determined by adding the individual POC’s. Based on this it was estimated that a horizontal displacement of ≤ 1.0 foot has a probability of 89% of occurring in the next 11,000 years at the site. In contrast, a vertical displacement of ≤ 1.0 foot has a probability of 88% probability of occurrence

Randomised trial of glutamine and selenium supplemented parenteral nutrition for critically ill patients

Background: Mortality rates in the Intensive Care Unit and subsequent hospital mortality rates in the UK remain high. Infections in Intensive Care are associated with a 2–3 times increased risk of death. It is thought that under conditions of severe metabolic stress glutamine becomes "conditionally essential". Selenium is an essential trace element that has antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Approximately 23% of patients in Intensive Care require parenteral nutrition and glutamine and selenium are either absent or present in low amounts. Both glutamine and selenium have the potential to influence the immune system through independent biochemical pathways. Systematic reviews suggest that supplementing parenteral nutrition in critical illness with glutamine or selenium may reduce infections and mortality. Pilot data has shown that more than 50% of participants developed infections, typically resistant organisms. We are powered to show definitively whether supplementation of PN with either glutamine or selenium is effective at reducing new infections in critically ill patients. Methods/design: 2 × 2 factorial, pragmatic, multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial. The trial has an enrolment target of 500 patients. Inclusion criteria include: expected to be in critical care for at least 48 hours, aged 16 years or over, patients who require parenteral nutrition and are expected to have at least half their daily nutritional requirements given by that route. Allocation is to one of four iso-caloric, iso-nitrogenous groups: glutamine, selenium, both glutamine & selenium or no additional glutamine or selenium. Trial supplementation is given for up to seven days on the Intensive Care Unit and subsequent wards if practicable. The primary outcomes are episodes of infection in the 14 days after starting trial nutrition and mortality. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic usage, length of hospital stay, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Discussion: To date more than 285 patients have been recruited to the trial from 10 sites in Scotland. Recruitment is due to finish in August 2008 with a further six months follow up. We expect to report the results of the trial in summer 2009. Trial registration: This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number system. ISRCTN87144826Not peer reviewedPublisher PD

Bigger, Better, Faster, More at the LHC

Multijet plus missing energy searches provide universal coverage for theories that have new colored particles that decay into a dark matter candidate and jets. These signals appear at the LHC further out on the missing energy tail than two-to-two scattering indicates. The simplicity of the searches at the LHC contrasts sharply with the Tevatron where more elaborate searches are necessary to separate signal from background. The searches presented in this article effectively distinguish signal from background for any theory where the LSP is a daughter or granddaughter of the pair-produced colored parent particle without ever having to consider missing energies less than 400 GeV.Comment: 26 pages, 8 Figures. Minor textual changes, typos fixed and references adde

Sexual Behaviour and HPV Infections in 18 to 29 Year Old Women in the Pre-Vaccine Era in the Netherlands

Contains fulltext : 71058.pdf ( ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Infection with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary event in the multi-step process of cervical carcinogenesis. Little is known about the natural history of HPV infection among unscreened young adults. As prophylactic vaccines are being developed to prevent specifically HPV 16 and 18 infections, shifts in prevalence in the post vaccine era may be expected. This study provides a unique opportunity to gather baseline data before changes by nationwide vaccination occur. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This cross-sectional study is part of a large prospective epidemiologic study performed among 2065 unscreened women aged 18 to 29 years. Women returned a self-collected cervico-vaginal specimen and filled out a questionnaire. All HPV DNA-positive samples (by SPF(10) DEIA) were genotyped using the INNO-LiPA HPV genotyping assay. HPV point prevalence in this sample was 19%. Low and high risk HPV prevalence was 9.1% and 11.8%, respectively. A single HPV-type was detected in 14.9% of all women, while multiple types were found in 4.1%. HPV-types 16 (2.8%) and 18 (1.4%) were found concomitantly in only 3 women (0.1%). There was an increase in HPV prevalence till 22 years. Multivariate analysis showed that number of lifetime sexual partners was the most powerful predictor of HPV positivity, followed by type of relationship, frequency of sexual contact, age, and number of sexual partners over the past 6 months. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: This study shows that factors independently associated with HPV prevalence are mainly related to sexual behaviour. Combination of these results with the relative low prevalence of HPV 16 and/or 18 may be promising for expanding the future target group for catch up vaccination. Furthermore, these results provide a basis for research on possible future shifts in HPV genotype prevalence, and enable a better estimate of the effect of HPV 16-18 vaccination on cervical cancer incidence

Wool sheep and purple snails - Long‐term continuity of animal exploitation in ancient Meninx (Jerba/Tunisia)

Archaeological research at the ancient city of Meninx in Jerba, Tunisia, carried out by the Institut National du Patrimoine Tunisie and Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) produced more than 10,000 faunal specimens and shed light on subsistence activities spanning from the fourth century BCE until the seventh century CE. Despite its highly diverse fauna totalling at least 69 species of mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and molluscs, domestic livestock formed the mainstay of the economy at Meninx. Throughout site occupation and compared with contemporaneous sites in coastal Tunisia and Libya, sheep were of prime importance at Meninx. Diachronic demographic profiling illustrates an emphasis on the production of wool for making textiles. Together with the ubiquitous presence of crushed banded dye‐murex (Hexaplex trunculus) shells implying exploitation of purple dyes, we assume that both activities were integrated into a single chaîne opératoire for making purple‐dyed fabrics that were traded across the Mediterranean from Punic until Late Roman times. Zooarchaeological findings also suggest that during the Byzantine Period, this major economic activity came to a standstill, with people returning to more self‐sufficient subsistence strategies. An intersite comparison furthermore revealed that high proportions of ovicaprines are a typical feature of Punic–Roman sites in Jerba. But even at the height of Roman power in the region, autochthonous husbandry traditions continued to exist on the island, as illustrated by the fauna from Henchir Bourgou

Where does the transport current flow in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8 crystals?

A new measurement technique for investigation of vortex dynamics is introduced. The distribution of the transport current across a crystal is derived by a sensitive measurement of the self-induced magnetic field of the transport current. We are able to clearly mark where the flow of the transport current is characterized by bulk pinning, surface barrier, or a uniform current distribution. One of the novel results is that in BSCCO crystals most of the vortex liquid phase is affected by surface barriers resulting in a thermally activated apparent resistivity. As a result the standard transport measurements in BSCCO do not probe the dynamics of vortices in the bulk, but rather measure surface barrier properties.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Natur

Age-dependent prevalence of 14 high-risk HPV types in the Netherlands: implications for prophylactic vaccination and screening

We determined the prevalence of type-specific hrHPV infections in the Netherlands on cervical scrapes of 45 362 women aged 18–65 years. The overall hrHPV prevalence peaked at the age of 22 with peak prevalence of 24%. Each of the 14 hrHPV types decreased significantly with age (P-values between 0.0009 and 0.03). The proportion of HPV16 in hrHPV-positive infections also decreased with age (OR=0.76 (10-year scale), 95% CI=0.67–0.85), and a similar trend was observed for HPV16 when selecting hrHPV-positive women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) (OR=0.76, 95% CI=0.56–1.01). In women eligible for routine screening (age 29–61 years) with confirmed CIN2+, 65% was infected with HPV16 and/or HPV18. When HPV16/18-positive infections in women eligible for routine screening were discarded, the positive predictive value of cytology for the detection of CIN2+ decreased from 27 to 15%, the positive predictive value of hrHPV testing decreased from 26 to 15%, and the predictive value of a double-positive test (positive HPV test and a positive cytology) decreased from 54 to 41%. In women vaccinated against HPV16/18, screening remains important to detect cervical lesions caused by non-HPV16/18 types. To maintain a high-positive predictive value, screening algorithms must be carefully re-evaluated with regard to the screening modalities and length of the screening interval

HPV type concordance in sexual couples determines the effect of condoms on regression of flat penile lesions

We earlier demonstrated, in a randomised clinical trial, that the regression time of flat penile lsions in male sexual partners of women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) was shorter in men who used condoms compared to those who did not. To further evaluate this finding, we examined whether the effect of condom use on the regression of flat penile lesions depends on the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) type concordance in sexual couples, as determined in cervical and penile scrapes by GP5+/6+ PCR testing. A Cox model with time-dependent covariates showed a beneficial effect of condoms on regression of flat penile lesions in concordant couples (hazard ratio 2.63, 95% CI 1.07–6.48) but not in those who were nonconcordant. When both partners harboured different HPV types, no effect of condoms was found (hazard ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.27–2.96). Delayed regression of flat penile lesions was associated with either stable lesions or with new penile lesions developing at sites surrounding pre-existing lesions suggesting reinfection of the penile epithelium. We conclude that condom use blocks sexual HPV transmission by preventing reinfection and development of new penile lesions in men who are susceptible to the same type as present in the female partner

Factors associated with non-attendance, opportunistic attendance and reminded attendance to cervical screening in an organized screening program: a cross-sectional study of 12,058 Norwegian women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cervical cancer incidence and mortality may be reduced by organized screening. Participant compliance with the attendance recommendations of the screening program is necessary to achieve this. Knowledge about the predictors of compliance is needed in order to enhance screening attendance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Norwegian Co-ordinated Cervical Cancer Screening Program (NCCSP) registers all cervix cytology diagnoses in Norway and individually reminds women who have no registered smear for the past three years to make an appointment for screening. In the present study, a questionnaire on lifestyle and health was administered to a random sample of Norwegian women. The response rate was 68%. To address the predictors of screening attendance for the 12,058 women aged 25-45 who were eligible for this study, individual questionnaire data was linked to the cytology registry of the NCCSP. We distinguished between non-attendees, opportunistic attendees and reminded attendees to screening for a period of four years. Predictors of non-attendance versus attendance and reminded versus opportunistic attendance were established by multivariate logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Women who attended screening were more likely than non-attendees to report that they were aware of the recommended screening interval, a history of sexually transmitted infections and a history of hormonal contraceptive and condom use. Attendance was also positively associated with being married/cohabiting, being a non-smoker and giving birth. Women who attended after being reminded were more likely than opportunistic attendees to be aware of cervical cancer and the recommended screening interval, but less likely to report a history of sexually transmitted infections and hormonal contraceptive use. Moreover, the likelihood of reminded attendance increased with age. Educational level did not significantly affect the women's attendance status in the fully adjusted models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The likelihood of attendance in an organized screening program was higher among women who were aware of cervical screening, which suggests a potential for a higher attendance rate through improving the public knowledge of screening. Further, the lower awareness among opportunistic than reminded attendees suggests that physicians may inform their patients better when smears are taken at the physician's initiative.</p