Geographic distribution model predictions.

<p>Probability of encounter with <b>A</b>) Speckled hind and <b>B</b>) warsaw grouper relative to existing (blue) and proposed (black) marine protected areas. 25 fathom (45.72 m) bathymetric line in blue. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

Input variables considered in logistic geographic distribution model.

*<p>See text for description of data sources.</p

Point observations.

<p><b>A</b>) Speckled hind and <b>B</b>) warsaw grouper encounters reported by various data sources. 25 fathom (45.7 m) bathymetric line in blue. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

No-take marine reserve protection per unit area.

<p>Percent of <b>A</b>) known and probable habitat and <b>B</b>) speckled hind (black) and warsaw grouper (light gray) stock per square kilometer.</p

Evaluation of existing (lower case) and proposed (italicized, all caps) no-take marine reserves for speckled hind and warsaw grouper relative to coverage of viable habitats and percent of grouper protected, as predicted by geographic distribution models.

<p>Output range for cross-validation best predictor (X-val) and best-fitting (AIC) models for speckled hind provided to characterize uncertainty. Note that geographic distribution model was unable to resolve probabilities south of 28′ latitude for warsaw grouper.</p><p><b>Note:</b> Assumes CHAPC no-anchoring provision results in 50% efficiency at eliminating bycatch mortality. Warsaw grouper percent stock estimates not generated south of 28° latitude. Oculina Bank CHAPC evaluation excludes Experimental Closed Area (ECA). Oculina Bank CHAPC Extension evaluation excludes Daytona Steeples and Daytona Ledge.</p

Point observations relative to habitat.

<p>Speckled hind (X) and warsaw grouper (+) encounters reported by various data sources versus habitat off Northeast Florida. Habitat data courtesy U.S. Navy, NOAA, and USGS (Andy David, NOAA, pers. comm.).</p

Point and spawning observations.

<p><b>A</b>) Point observations of speckled hind (X) and warsaw grouper (+) relative to bathymetry and <b>B</b>) anecdotal spawning or aggregation observations of speckled hind (yellow star) and warsaw grouper (green crosses) relative to speckled hind geographic distribution model output and rejected (dashed lines) and proposed (solid lines) marine protected areas east of Murrell's Inlet, SC. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

Existing and proposed protected areas.

<p>Existing (gray) marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA options (red) developed by the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council's MPA Expert Workgroup (SAFMC 2013).</p

Point data sources evaluated in meta-analysis, indicating whether data was included in spatial classification model (SCM) or geographic distribution model (GDM).

<p>Point data sources evaluated in meta-analysis, indicating whether data was included in spatial classification model (SCM) or geographic distribution model (GDM).</p

Left: Bathymetry in the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef region with study sites indicated.

<p>Upper right: View of Control #2 site from N to S. Lower right: View of Rocky Point site from N to S.</p