Modelling thirty-day mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in an adult ICU

Publisher's copy made available with the permission of the publisher © Australian Society of AnaesthetistsVariables predicting thirty-day outcome from Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) were analysed using Cox regression structured for time-varying covariates. Over a three-year period, 1996-1998, consecutive patients with ARDS (bilateral chest X-ray opacities, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio of <200 and an acute precipitating event) were identified using a prospective computerized data base in a university teaching hospital ICU. The cohort, 106 mechanically ventilated patients, was of mean (SD) age 63.5 (15.5) years and 37% were female. Primary lung injury occurred in 45% and 24% were postoperative. ICU-admission day APACHE II score was 25 (8); ARDS onset time from ICU admission was 1 day (median: range 0-16) and 30 day mortality was 41% (95% CI: 33%-51%). At ARDS onset, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio was 92 (31), 81% had four-quadrant chest X-ray opacification and lung injury score was 2.75 (0.45). Average mechanical ventilator tidal volume was 10.3 ml/ predicted kg weight. Cox model mortality predictors (hazard ratio, 95% CI) were: APACHE II score, 1.15 (1.09-1.21); ARDS lag time (days), 0.72 (0.58-0.89); direct versus indirect injury, 2.89 (1.45-5.76); PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, 0.98 (0.97-0.99); operative versus non-operative category, 0.24 (0.09-0.63). Time-varying effects were evident for PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, operative versus non-operative category and ventilator tidal volume assessed as a categorical predictor with a cut-point of 8 ml/kg predicted weight (mean tidal volumes, 7.1 (1.9) vs 10.7 (1.6) ml/kg predicted weight). Thirty-day survival was improved for patients ventilated with lower tidal volumes. Survival predictors in ARDS were multifactorial and related to patient-injury-time interaction and level of mechanical ventilator tidal volume.J. L. Moran, P. J. Solomon, V. Fox, M. Salagaras, P. J. Williams, K. Quinlan, A. D. Berstenhttp://www.aaic.net.au/Article.asp?D=200332

Age and sex differences in the incorporation of EPA and DHA into plasma fractions, cells and adipose tissue in humans

The aim of the present study was to determine whether age and sex influence both the status and incorporation of EPA and DHA into blood plasma, cells and tissues. The study was a double-blind, randomised, controlled intervention trial, providing EPA plus DHA equivalent to 0, 1, 2 or 4 portions of oily fish per week for 12 months. The participants were stratified by age and sex. A linear regression model was used to analyse baseline outcomes, with covariates for age or sex groups and by adjusting for BMI. The change in outcomes from baseline to 12 months was analysed with additional adjustment for treatment and average compliance. Fatty acid profiles in plasma phosphatidylcholine, cholesteryl esters, NEFA and TAG, mononuclear cells (MNC), erythrocyte membranes, platelets, buccal cells (BU) and adipose tissue (AT) were determined. At baseline, EPA concentrations in plasma NEFA and DHA concentrations in MNC, BU and AT were higher in females than in males (all P&lt; 0·05). The concentrations of EPA in AT (P= 0·003) and those of DHA in plasma TAG (P&lt; 0·01) and AT (P&lt; 0·001) were higher with increasing age. Following 12-month supplementation with EPA plus DHA, adjusted mean difference for change in EPA concentrations in plasma TAG was significantly higher in females than in males (P&lt; 0·05) and was greater with increasing age (P= 0·02). Adjusted mean difference for change in DHA concentrations in AT was significantly smaller with increasing age (P= 0·02). Although small differences in incorporation with age and sex were identified, these were not of sufficient magnitude to warrant a move away from population-level diet recommendations for n-3 PUFA

Compared with daily, weekly n-3 PUFA intake affects the incorporation of eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid into platelets and mononuclear cells in humans

Consumption of oily fish is sporadic, whereas controlled intervention studies of n–3 (?-3) fatty acids usually provide capsules containing eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) as a daily dose. This methodologic study explored whether there are differences in the short-, medium-, and long-term incorporation of EPA and DHA into blood plasma and cells with the provision of identical amounts of EPA and DHA, equivalent to 2 oily fish servings per week (or 6.54 g/wk EPA and DHA), either intermittently (i.e., 1 portion twice per week) or continuously (i.e., divided into daily amounts). The study was part of a randomized, double-blind controlled intervention lasting 12 mo, with participants stratified by age and sex. There were 5 intervention groups, 2 of which are reported here: the 2 intermittent portions (2I) and 2 continuous portions (2C) groups. EPA and DHA were measured in plasma phosphatidylcholine, platelets, and blood mononuclear cells (MNCs) at 9 time points. Sixty-five participants completed the study (2I group, n = 30, mean age of 49.2 y; 2C group, n = 35, mean age of 50.6 y). The incorporation pattern over the 12-mo intervention was different between the 2 groups in all samples (P &lt; 0.0001, time × treatment interaction). At the end of the 12-mo intervention, the 2C group had higher EPA, DHA, and EPA + DHA in platelets (all P &lt; 0.01) and higher EPA and EPA + DHA in MNCs (both P &lt; 0.05) compared with the 2I group. No significant differences were shown for plasma phosphatidylcholine EPA (P = 0.1), DHA (P = 0.15), EPA + DHA (P = 0.07), or MNC DHA (P = 0.06). In conclusion, the pattern of consumption does affect the incorporation of EPA and DHA into cells used as biomarkers of intake. The differences identified here need to be considered in the design of studies and when extrapolating results from continuous capsule-based intervention studies to dietary guidelines for oily fish consumption. This trial was registered at www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN4839852

Designing and evaluating dose-escalation studies made easy:The MoDEsT web app

Background/aims: Dose-escalation studies are essential in the early stages of developing novel treatments, when the aim is to find a safe dose for administration in humans. Despite their great importance, many dose-escalation studies use study designs based on heuristic algorithms with well-documented drawbacks. Bayesian decision procedures provide a design alternative that is conceptually simple and methodologically sound, but very rarely used in practice, at least in part due to their perceived statistical complexity. There are currently very few easily accessible software implementations that would facilitate their application. Methods: We have created MoDEsT, a free and easy-to-use web application for designing and conducting single-agent dose-escalation studies with a binary toxicity endpoint, where the objective is to estimate the maximum tolerated dose. MoDEsT uses a well-established Bayesian decision procedure based on logistic regression. The software has a user-friendly point-and-click interface, makes changes visible in real time, and automatically generates a range of graphs, tables, and reports. It is aimed at clinicians as well as statisticians with limited expertise in model-based dose-escalation designs, and does not require any statistical programming skills to evaluate the operating characteristics of, or implement, the Bayesian dose-escalation design. Results: MoDEsT comes in two parts: a 'Design' module to explore design options and simulate their operating characteristics, and a 'Conduct' module to guide the dose-finding process throughout the study. We illustrate the practical use of both modules with data from a real phase I study in terminal cancer. Conclusion: Enabling both methodologists and clinicians to understand and apply model-based study designs with ease is a key factor towards their routine use in early-phase studies. We hope that MoDEsT will enable incorporation of Bayesian decision procedures for dose escalation at the earliest stage of clinical trial design, thus increasing their use in early-phase trials

Two-stage designs optimal under the alternative hypothesis for phase II cancer clinical trials

The Simon two-stage optimal design is often used for phase II cancer clinical trials. A study proceeds to the second stage unless the null hypothesis, that the true tumour response rate is below some specified value, is already accepted at the end of stage one. The conventional optimal design, for given type 1 and type 2 error rates, is the one which minimises the expected sample size under the null hypothesis. However, at least some new agents are active, and designs that explicitly address this possibility should be considered. We therefore investigate novel designs which are optimal under the alternative hypothesis, that the tumour response rate is higher than the null hypothesis value, and also designs which allow early stopping for efficacy. We make available, software for identifying the corresponding optimal and minimax designs. Considerable savings in expected sample sizes can be achieved if the alternative hypothesis is in fact true, without sample sizes suffering too much if the null hypothesis is true. We present an example discussing the merits of different designs in a practical context. We conclude that it is relevant to consider optimal designs under a range of hypotheses about the true response rate, and that allowing early stopping for efficacy is always advantageous in terms of expected sample size

Temperature and pH define the realised niche space of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are a globally distributed group of soil organisms that play critical roles in ecosystem function. However, the ecological niches of individual AM fungal taxa are poorly understood. We collected > 300 soil samples from natural ecosystems worldwide and modelled the realised niches of AM fungal virtual taxa (VT; approximately species‐level phylogroups). We found that environmental and spatial variables jointly explained VT distribution worldwide, with temperature and pH being the most important abiotic drivers, and spatial effects generally occurring at local to regional scales. While dispersal limitation could explain some variation in VT distribution, VT relative abundance was almost exclusively driven by environmental variables. Several environmental and spatial effects on VT distribution and relative abundance were correlated with phylogeny, indicating that closely related VT exhibit similar niche optima and widths. Major clades within the Glomeraceae exhibited distinct niche optima, Acaulosporaceae generally had niche optima in low pH and low temperature conditions, and Gigasporaceae generally had niche optima in high precipitation conditions. Identification of the realised niche space occupied by individual and phylogenetic groups of soil microbial taxa provides a basis for building detailed hypotheses about how soil communities respond to gradients and manipulation in ecosystems worldwide