7,999 research outputs found
Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF-Fire
We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure
of WRF-Fire. WRF-Fire consists of a fire-spread model, implemented by the
level-set method, coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In
every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire,
and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn
influences the atmosphere. The level-set method allows submesh representation
of the burning region and flexible implementation of various ignition modes.
WRF-Fire is distributed as a part of WRF and it uses the WRF parallel
infrastructure for parallel computing.Comment: Version 3.3, 41 pages, 2 tables, 12 figures. As published in
Discussions, under review for Geoscientific Model Developmen
Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers
Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g. likely) rather than numeric (e.g. 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities
Crime as risk taking
Engagement in criminal activity may be viewed as risk-taking behaviour as it has both benefits and drawbacks that are probabilistic. In two studies, we examined how individuals' risk perceptions can inform our understanding of their intentions to engage in criminal activity. Study 1 measured youths' perceptions of the value and probability of the benefits and drawbacks of engaging in three common crimes (i.e. shoplifting, forgery, and buying illegal drugs), and examined how well these perceptions predicted youths' forecasted engagement in these crimes, controlling for their past engagement. We found that intentions to engage in criminal activity were best predicted by the perceived value of the benefits that may be obtained, irrespective of their probabilities or the drawbacks that may also be incurred. Study 2 specified the benefit and drawback that youth thought about and examined another crime (i.e. drinking and driving). The findings of Study 1 were replicated under these conditions. The present research supports a limited rationality perspective on criminal intentions, and can have implications for crime prevention/intervention strategies
Data Driven Computing by the Morphing Fast Fourier Transform Ensemble Kalman Filter in Epidemic Spread Simulations
The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic
cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF
combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a
localized and computationally inexpensive version of EnKF with a very small
ensemble, and it is further combined with the morphing EnKF to assimilate
changes in the position of the epidemic.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to ICCS 201
Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis
Intelligence analysis is fundamentally an exercise in expert judgment made under conditions of uncertainty. These judgments are used to inform consequential decisions. Following the major intelligence failure that led to the 2003 war in Iraq, intelligence organizations implemented policies for communicating probability in their assessments. Virtually all chose to convey probability using standardized linguistic lexicons in which an ordered set of select probability terms (e.g., highly likely) is associated with numeric ranges (e.g., 80-90%). We review the benefits and drawbacks of this approach, drawing on psychological research on probability communication and studies that have examined the effectiveness of standardized lexicons. We further discuss how numeric probabilities can overcome many of the shortcomings of linguistic probabilities. Numeric probabilities are not without drawbacks (e.g., they are more difficult to elicit and may be misunderstood by receivers with poor numeracy). However, these drawbacks can be ameliorated with training and practice, whereas the pitfalls of linguistic probabilities are endemic to the approach. We propose that, on balance, the benefits of using numeric probabilities outweigh their drawbacks. Given the enormous costs associated with intelligence failure, the intelligence community should reconsider its reliance on using linguistic probabilities to convey probability in intelligence assessments. Our discussion also has implications for probability communication in other domains such as climate science
BDDC and FETI-DP under Minimalist Assumptions
The FETI-DP, BDDC and P-FETI-DP preconditioners are derived in a particulary
simple abstract form. It is shown that their properties can be obtained from
only on a very small set of algebraic assumptions. The presentation is purely
algebraic and it does not use any particular definition of method components,
such as substructures and coarse degrees of freedom. It is then shown that
P-FETI-DP and BDDC are in fact the same. The FETI-DP and the BDDC
preconditioned operators are of the same algebraic form, and the standard
condition number bound carries over to arbitrary abstract operators of this
form. The equality of eigenvalues of BDDC and FETI-DP also holds in the
minimalist abstract setting. The abstract framework is explained on a standard
substructuring example.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, also available at
http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/reports
Quantum random walk of two photons in separable and entangled state
We discuss quantum random walk of two photons using linear optical elements.
We analyze the quantum random walk using photons in a variety of quantum states
including entangled states. We find that for photons initially in separable
Fock states, the final state is entangled. For polarization entangled photons
produced by type II downconverter, we calculate the joint probability of
detecting two photons at a given site. We show the remarkable dependence of the
two photon detection probability on the quantum nature of the state. In order
to understand the quantum random walk, we present exact analytical results for
small number of steps like five. We present in details numerical results for a
number of cases and supplement the numerical results with asymptotic analytical
results
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