Female Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence in Myanmar

While literature shows that female risk tolerance is generally lower than males, it can also be the same as male\u27s under different contexts and types of rewards. We conducted an experiment in Myanmar using a lottery selection method to measure risk over five consecutively paid rounds. We find 1) teenage females are more responsive than adult females to the type of incentive. 2) female risk tolerance matches that of males under cash and school supplies, but fall behind under department store gift card. 3) over five rounds, adult female behavior is most distinct from other groups

An Examination of the USDA Net Cash Farm Income Forecast Reliability using a New Archival Farm Income Dataset: A Case Study of the 2020 Forecasts and Estimates

USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) releases short-term forecasts and estimates of farm sector income three times a year, informing the public on the financial health of the U.S. agriculture sector. This paper presents the new data archive of ERS’s farm sector income forecast and estimate releases and analyzes how forecasts and estimates for a calendar year change over time. We also examine the reliability of the net cash farm income (NCFI) forecasts for the calendar year 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the fourth release of the 2020 NCFI forecast, published in February 2021, was less reliable than the initial forecast, published in February 2020, contrary to the historical evidence where the reliability of ERS calendar year forecasts tends to improve with each release

COVID-19 Working Paper: The Evolution of U.S. Farm Sector Profitability Forecasts in 2020

USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) publicly releases forecasts and estimates of financial indicators that provide insights relevant to the financial health of the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on preliminary data and projections, the sector's income is forecast four times over a period spanning from February to the following February. Estimates are released later when more complete data are gathered, for example, from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey. This report discusses the evolution of the 2020 farm sector income forecasts, illustrating how the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related economic uncertainty affected the forecasts. USDA, ERS overestimated 2020 cash receipts and underestimated 2020 production expenses, generally resulting in an overprediction of the 2020 farm sector income relative to official estimates in all four forecasts. The first forecast (released in February 2020) was close to the estimated value because the dollar value of the overprediction of cash receipts nearly offset the underprediction of direct Government payments. In contrast, the last 2020 farm income forecasts (released in February 2021) significantly deviated from the later estimates (released in September 2021), contrary to the historical evidence showing the forecasts converge to the estimates over the forecasting cycle

COVID-19 Working Paper: The Evolution of U.S. Farm Sector Profitability Forecasts in 2020

USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) publicly releases forecasts and estimates of financial indicators that provide insights relevant to the financial health of the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on preliminary data and projections, the sector's income is forecast four times over a period spanning from February to the following February. Estimates are released later when more complete data are gathered, for example, from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey. This report discusses the evolution of the 2020 farm sector income forecasts, illustrating how the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related economic uncertainty affected the forecasts. USDA, ERS overestimated 2020 cash receipts and underestimated 2020 production expenses, generally resulting in an overprediction of the 2020 farm sector income relative to official estimates in all four forecasts. The first forecast (released in February 2020) was close to the estimated value because the dollar value of the overprediction of cash receipts nearly offset the underprediction of direct Government payments. In contrast, the last 2020 farm income forecasts (released in February 2021) significantly deviated from the later estimates (released in September 2021), contrary to the historical evidence showing the forecasts converge to the estimates over the forecasting cycle

An Overview of Farms Operated by Socially Disadvantaged, Women, and Limited Resource Farmers and Ranchers in the United States

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recognizes several groups of farmers who have been historically underserved by the USDA and operates several programs and policies targeting these groups. This report provides an overview of the characteristics of the farms operated by socially disadvantaged (individuals identifying as Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian or Pacific Islander), women, and limited resource producers using data from the annual Agricultural Resource Management Survey. The report summarizes measures of farm financial health, credit use, agricultural program participation, and other farm-level characteristics, along with information about the principal operator and the principal operator’s household, including household income and wealth

An Overview of Farms Operated by Socially Disadvantaged, Women, and Limited Resource Farmers and Ranchers in the United States

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recognizes several groups of farmers who have been historically underserved by the USDA and operates several programs and policies targeting these groups. This report provides an overview of the characteristics of the farms operated by socially disadvantaged (individuals identifying as Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian or Pacific Islander), women, and limited resource producers using data from the annual Agricultural Resource Management Survey. The report summarizes measures of farm financial health, credit use, agricultural program participation, and other farm-level characteristics, along with information about the principal operator and the principal operator’s household, including household income and wealth

Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2021 Edition

The U.S. agricultural economy experienced pronounced volatility over the 2009–19 decade, including strong periods of expansion in the first part of the decade followed by several years of contraction. Although many financial indicators of well-being—including farm sector and household income—were at or near their long-term average in 2019, shifts in the distribution of Government payments from farm programs occurred. In addition, bankruptcy rates were elevated in some key agricultural States. This report describes major trends in the agricultural economy over the most recent decade for which survey data are available (2009–19) and explores drivers underlying the trends. The analysis is based on USDA’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, data collected from farm operators and farm households through the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), and data from U.S. Bankruptcy Courts. The charts and analyses provide a historical perspective to evaluate current economic conditions

Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2021 Edition

The agricultural economy experienced pronounced volatility over 2009–19, including strong periods of expansions in the first part of the decade followed by several years of contraction. This report presents and assesses recent trends in three major areas of farm finance: farm income, Government payment programs, and Chapter 12 bankruptcy eligibility and rates