New Member States' Trading Potential Following EMU Accession: A Gravity Approach

The purpose of this paper is to look at implications of the EMU accession on international trade flows of the new member states with members of the enlarged EU. I begin with the evaluation of an early impact of the EMU on trade based on a gravity model. The results are then employed in the calculation of potential levels of trade of the Central and East European countries. The results show a high degree of trade integration between most of the new member states and the EU except for Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In trade among the new member states, potential trade flows by far exceed actual levels for all countries except the Czech Republic and Slovakia.international trade, gravity model, currency union, Eastern Europe

Regulation of Consumer Credit in Polish Law

The purpose of the paper is to present the most important Polish regulations concerning consumer credits. They are contained in the Act on Consumer Credit which was adopted on 20th July 2001. Its aim was to approximate Polish law with the EU requirements predicted in the Council Directive 87/102/EEC of 22 December 1986 on consumer credit. As a result the Polish legislator regulates the most important aspects of such credit agreements. First of all, the credit agreement is defined. This definition is quite wide – “credit agreement means an agreement whereby a creditor grants or promises to grant to a consumer a credit in any form”. However, it is narrowed by the list of exceptions which are discussed in the paper. Secondly, the form and content of credit agreements are regulated (with special care of the questions of total credit costs and real annual percentage rate). Thirdly, consumers are protected in relation to bills of exchange and cheques and also in the case of the assignment of the creditors rights under a credit agreement to a third person. Fourthly, the Act predicts consumer rights to discharge his obligations under a credit agreement before the time fixed by it and to withdraw from the agreement. Finally, the provisions of the Act are binding on the creditor and he cannot exclude or limit consumer rights in the agreement. One the whole it can be said that Polish consumers are quite well protected against the unfair practices of different creditors. Now, everything depends on their readiness to use their rights as creditors can try to diminish the role of the provisions of the Act.consumer credit, credit agreement, total costs of the credit, real annual percentage rate, consumer rights to withdraw from the agreement and to discharge his obligations under a credit agreement before the time fixed by it

Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?

The paper re-assesses the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance. We test for the relationship between de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications on the one hand, and inflation, output growth and output volatility on the other. We find that, once high-inflation outliers are excluded from the sample, only hard exchange rate pegs are associated with lower inflation compared to the floating regime. There is no significant relationship between output growth and exchange rate regimes, confirming results from previous studies. De jure pegged regimes (broadly defined) are correlated with higher output volatility, but this relationship is reversed for the de facto classification. The last result points to a potential endogeneity problem present when the de facto classification is used in testing for the relationship between exchange rate behavior and macroeconomic performance.exchange rate regimes, inflation, output volatility

General Equilibrium Analysis of Albania's Integration with the EU and South Eastern Europe

The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for the analysis of implications of various trade policy options for Albania. We study the impact of implementation of the Stablization and Association Agreement, free trade agreements with South-East European neighbors and reduction of the MFN tariffs. We employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows for evaluation of the likely impact of trade agreements on trade, output, factor rewards, tariff revenue and welfare. Our simulations indicate that Albania has a lot to gain from further integration with its neighbors and the EU. However, the benefits from regional integration can only be realized as long as Albania gains better access for its exports on regional markets. Liberalization of trade with all trading partners allows for a permanent increase of Albanian GDP by 1% on a recurring annual basis and an increase of wages by 3.4% relative to their 2000 level.trade liberalization, SAA, computable general equilibrium

Prospects for Future Euro-Mediterranean Trade

Initiatives and agreements between EU and Mediterranean countries aimed at establishing a free trade area. Indeed there has been a liberalization of trade in the last 10 years creating new trade flows, but trade integration still has to be developed further in order to make substantial differences for the Mediterranean countries.Mediterranean region, trade liberalisation, EU Free Trade Agreements

EU accession and Poland's external trade policy

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Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia

Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).Institutional harmonization, European integration, European Neighborhood Policy, ENP, non-tariff barriers, NTBs, Computable General Equilibrium, CGE model