Unemployment expectations across heterogeneous groups

Relying on ISAE Italian data on consumers' unemployment expectations, we analyse the process of unemployment expectations formation across different socio-economic groups, distinguished according to their working condition. We find that employees are unable to correctly incorporate the effects of the Biagi Law. This evidence seems to show that these agents do not consider the new forms of temporary job, resulting from the application of Biagi Law, as proper “employment†and hence do not correctly interpreted them as a reduction in the unemployment trend. This aspect may provide some preliminary explanations for the evidence of Italian consumers'' pessimism about the dynamics of the labour market, despite the falling of the unemployment rate occurred in Italy during the last years.

Monitoring Italy 2007

management practices; innovation; productivity

Temporary hires and innovative investments

The flexicurity approach claims a positive effect of flexible labour on firm performance, also through an increased ability to innovate. Critics consider it a deregulation of the labour market, decreasing investment in human capital and innovation. We contribute to this broad debate providing an estimate of the relationships linking innovative investment, substitution investment, permanent hires and temporary hires. In particular, we aim at affirming or denying that innovative investments are accompanied by a specific kind of workforce, being it stable or flexible. In doing so, we contribute to bridge the gap among two quite separate strands of literature, as existing literature usually analyses capital and labour separately. Estimating a non linear recursive equation system we highlight a significant increase in the likelihood of hiring on a permanent base when the firm innovates; this holds till 2008. Afterward, during the crisis, innovating firms are more likely to hire using temporary contracts instead, a possible signal of a cost saving strategy adopted in a loose labour market. Furthermore, both permanent and temporary hires never depend on increases in labour costs; however, substitution investment increases when labour cost increases, maybe in an attempt to increase labour productivity through a more efficient capital equipment.EPL, investment, innovation, flexicurity, survey data

Life satisfaction in a survey of Italian households

This paper explores life satisfaction in Italy by using the ISAE survey on Italian households’ budget, which has been extended to the specific question on this aspect in the May 2008 wave. Our main new contributions to the existing literature regard the role of the characterisation of the family structure, the type of work, the place of living, the working time in relation to life satisfaction, but above all, the stressing role of perceived income, of past income changes, affordability of expenses for monthly bills, and borrowing. Actual income clearly emerges as an insufficient indicator of the households’ economic conditions which are relevant for their self-reported life satisfaction.perceived happiness, well being, households

La produzione scientifica italiana e il suo impatto: un confronto internazionale relativo alle Aree CUN bibliometriche

The paper aims at evaluating the position of the Italian research system in the international scenario, using data from ISI-Web of Sciences and Scopus database for the period 1981-2010. Bibliometric information have been first of all organized according to the Italian classification of scientific disciplines; the analysis concentrated on hard sciences, medical sciences, engeneering and economics, where the use of bibliometric indicators to evaluate research is rather widespread. Indicators analysed concern scientific production and its impact, scientific collaboration, scientific productivity and research excellence. We show that scientific productivity in Italy is remarkably high; Italy is on par with the international average in terms of scientific production and impact, but it is still lagging behind with respect to major competitors in Europe (Germany, Netherlands, Uk) and in the world (US)

Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey

The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey-base dataset of Italian households’ opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior: ‘inattentiveness’ and ‘anchoring’. The present analysis extends the existing literature by incorporating explicitly inflation targets and distinguishing between aggregate and disaggregate dynamics based on demographic groups. In addition, we extend the literature by considering both the short- and long-run dynamics as households update their inflation expectations while also accounting for their state-varying behavior. All these issues provide important insights into understanding actual inflation dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy

Industrial production and Confidence after the crisis: what's going on?

The paper provides new evidence on possible structural breaks in the relationship among business Confidence and industrial activity in Europe in the aftermath of the recession. Possible interpretation is that the crisis has determined a change in the pattern of response in surveys, firms now incorporating a lower level of long term output. A confirmation comes from the analysis of survey data on capacity utilisation: we find indeed that perceived potential output or potential output growth has declined throughout the euro area. Results may be rather important for business cycle analysts and policy makers: for the former, the suggestion is to consider business survey data with particular care, since their interpretation has changed as a consequence of the crisis. Policy makers on the other hand should consider that the recession has changed long term expectations of agents, possibly significantly affecting transmission channels of both monetary and fiscal policies

La produzione scientifica italiana e il suo impatto: un confronto internazionale relativo alle Aree CUN bibliometriche

The paper aims at evaluating the position of the Italian research system in the international scenario, using data from ISI-Web of Sciences and Scopus database for the period 1981-2010. Bibliometric information have been first of all organized according to the Italian classification of scientific disciplines; the analysis concentrated on hard sciences, medical sciences, engeneering and economics, where the use of bibliometric indicators to evaluate research is rather widespread. Indicators analysed concern scientific production and its impact, scientific collaboration, scientific productivity and research excellence. We show that scientific productivity in Italy is remarkably high; Italy is on par with the international average in terms of scientific production and impact, but it is still lagging behind with respect to major competitors in Europe (Germany, Netherlands, Uk) and in the world (US)

What do Italian consumers know about Economic Data? An analysis based on the ISTAT Consumers Survey

Standard theory describes economic decisions as the result of optimising behaviour of well-informed economic agents. However, whether citizens are really well informed on economic data is still highly disputed. In order to investigate on this issue, since 2007 the Italian Consumers survey has incorporated a number of questions on the degree of knowledge about economic data. Surveys results show that the level of knowledge of Italian consumers is relatively low; moreover, knowledge seems to significantly vary across different groups of respondents, depending on individual characteristics and the perceived costs and benefits of acquiring information. Results provide evidence of deviation from the standard approach of full rationality in the information acquisition process: if agents are not always fully rational, delays in information acquisition should be taken into account by policy makers in designing appropriate interventions

Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis

The aim of the paper is to assess the role of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as an autonomous driving force of consumption decisions. We test for the presence of “rule of thumb” consumers as originally proposed by Cambell and Mankiw (1991), using sentiment measures distinguished by working condition of the household. Consumption data are disaggregated according to durability. The role of sentiment results to be stronger for service expenditures. Psychological motives of employees are found to have a particularly significant influence on consumption decisions. Moreover, CSI can not be explained by economic fundamentals alone, capturing also the effects of the political cycle and exceptional circumstances