Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System

Food security—the ability to obtain and use sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food—is a fundamental human need. Climate change is very likely to affect global, regional, and local food security by disrupting food availability, decreasing access to food, and making food utilization more difficult. Food security exists “when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” and affects people through both under- and overconsumption. Food security requires that food be simultaneously (1) available—that it exist in a particular place at a particular time, (2) that people can access that food through economic or other means, (3) that people can utilize the food that is available and accessible to them, and (4) that each of these components be stable over time. Constrictions within any of these components can result in food insecurity. Food is provisioned through a food system that manifests in diverse ways across the globe. The food system includes all activities related to producing, transporting, trading, storing, processing, packaging, wholesaling, retailing, consuming, and disposing of food. Whether an individual food system includes few, many, or all of these elements, each is susceptible to risks from a changing climate. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, have increased global greenhouse gas concentrations; atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in the late 1700s to today’s level of about 400 ppm. Concentrations continue to rise, though future levels depend on choices and development pathways yet to be determined. Additionally, the future condition of the food system depends upon socioeconomic trajectories that are external to the food system itself. For these reasons, a range of possible emissions futures and socioeconomic pathways have been considered by this assessment. The Climate Change, Global Food Security, and U.S. Food System assessment represents a consensus of authors and includes contributors from 19 Federal, academic, nongovernmental, and intergovernmental organizations in four countries, identifying climate-change effects on global food security through 2100, and analyzing the United States’ likely connections with that world. The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. The risks are greatest for the global poor and in tropical regions. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. As part of a highly integrated global food system, consumers and producers in the United States are likely to be affected by these changes. The type and price of food imports from other regions are likely to change, as are export demands placed upon U.S. producers and the transportation, processing, and storage systems that enable global trade. Demand for food and other types of assistance may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies to manage changing conditions. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate-change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level, from households to nations and international governance structures. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame, particularly for smaller operations around the world with limited capacity for long-term investments. The accurate identification of needs and vulnerabilities, and the effective targeting of adaptive practices and technologies across the full scope of the food system, are central to improving global food security in a changing climate

Wages of war, wages of peace: food prices and unskilled labour pay in Afghanistan

This paper contains the main results of a FAO study on staple food prices and real wages in Afghanistan during the period 1996-2002, based on information systematically collected weekly by WFP in all major cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Faizabad). The main conclusion of the study are as follows: Large fluctuations have been registered in food prices. However, the fluctuations were mostly due to changes in the value of currency, i.e. in the exchange rate. Food prices in dollars have been remarkably stable, especially during the years 2001 and 2002. During the war years, disrupted markets and international isolation caused prices to be well above international levels. But during 2001 and 2002 prices of wheat have been in line with international prices. There is no evidence that increased production and increased food aid in 2002 may have depressed domestic prices. Wheat price in dollars in 2002 has been approximately the same than in 2001, in spite of large increases in food aid and an even larger increase in domestic production. Commercial imports have acted as price regulators, keeping domestic prices more or less stable. The purchasing power of wages for unskilled urban labour (in terms of bread) has remained remarkably stable from 1998 to 2001. One day's wage has been equivalent to the cost of approximately 4 Kg of bread, with a slightly better situation in Kabul than in other cities. Faizabad was the city with wages at the lowest level of purchasing power. During the first half of 2002 the purchasing power of wages (i.e. the real wage level) increased significantly in all cities, reaching a level of 7-8 Kg of bread at mid-year. During the last months of the year (September-December) there has been no further increase in real wages, except in Faizabad that has continued recovering. In the case of Kabul, real wages have fallen significantly in October-November, back to the levels of 2001, i.e. about 5 Kg of bread equivalent per day. This indicates saturation of the urban labour market, and increased food insecurity of the urban population. The study recommends urgent start of labour-intensive public works to help improving the real wage of urban workers, and therefore reducing food insecurity in urban areas

Wages of War, Wages of Peace: Food prices and unskilled labour pay in Afghanistan, 1996-2002

This paper contains the main results of a FAO study on staple food prices and real wages in Afghanistan during the period 1996-2002, based on information systematically collected weekly by WFP in all major cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Faizabad). The main conclusion of the study are as follows: Large fluctuations have been registered in food prices. However, the fluctuations were mostly due to changes in the value of currency, i.e. in the exchange rate. Food prices in dollars have been remarkably stable, especially during the years 2001 and 2002. During the war years, disrupted markets and international isolation caused prices to be well above international levels. But during 2001 and 2002 prices of wheat have been in line with international prices. There is no evidence that increased production and increased food aid in 2002 may have depressed domestic prices. Wheat price in dollars in 2002 has been approximately the same than in 2001, in spite of large increases in food aid and an even larger increase in domestic production. Commercial imports have acted as price regulators, keeping domestic prices more or less stable. The purchasing power of wages for unskilled urban labour (in terms of bread) has remained remarkably stable from 1998 to 2001. One day’s wage has been equivalent to the cost of approximately 4 Kg of bread, with a slightly better situation in Kabul than in other cities. Faizabad was the city with wages at the lowest level of purchasing power. During the first half of 2002 the purchasing power of wages (i.e. the real wage level) increased significantly in all cities, reaching a level of 7-8 Kg of bread at mid-year. During the last months of the year (September-December) there has been no further increase in real wages, except in Faizabad that has continued recovering. In the case of Kabul, real wages have fallen significantly in October-November, back to the levels of 2001, i.e. about 5 Kg of bread equivalent per day. This indicates saturation of the urban labour market, and increased food insecurity of the urban population. The study recommends urgent start of labour-intensive public works to help improving the real wage of urban workers, and therefore reducing food insecurity in urban areas.Afghanistan, Agricultural economics, Economics, Emergency relief, Food aid, Food crops, Food security, Foods, Prices, Remuneration, Statistical data, Surveys, Urban areas, Wheats