A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several <it>concerns </it>about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these <it>concerns </it>and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility.</p

Proton pump inhibitors: More indigestion than relief?

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely prescribed to treat a number of gastrointestinal (GI) disorders due to excessive acid production. While effective and safe, adverse renal effects have been increasingly described in epidemiological literature. The most well-documented adverse renal outcome is acute interstitial nephritis; however, association with overall acute kidney injury has also been recently reported. Recently, two observational studies have linked PPI use with chronic kidney disease. Finally, hypomagnesemia is another reported complication and is thought to be resulting from GI loss of magnesium. This study will critically review literature on the effect of PPIs on the kidney

A prospective cohort conversion study of twice-daily to once-daily extended-release tacrolimus: role of ethnicity

Abstract Background Tacrolimus is a widely used calcineurin inhibitor in kidney transplantation. It is available as twice-daily Prograf® (Tac-BID) and once-daily Advagraf® (Tac-OD). Although therapeutically equivalent, some patients require dose adjustments to achieve similar trough concentrations [C0] after conversion. Tacrolimus exposure is affected by ethnicity in the de novo setting but the role of ethnicity in determining dose requirements and adjustments after conversion is unknown. Methods In this study, 496 renal transplant recipients (RTRs) were prospectively converted from Tac-BID to Tac-OD, with dose adjustments targeted to achieve similar [C0] at 12 months post-conversion. Renal function, acute rejection and Tac dose adjustments by ethnicity were analyzed. Results There were similar numbers of recipients from living and deceased donors. The mean transplant duration was 7 years. Of the RTRs, 60% were Caucasian and 40% were identified as belonging to an ethnic minority. There was no change in estimated renal function (eGFR) post-conversion to Tac-OD. At 12 months, 35/488 (7%) RTRs were receiving a reduced dose, 101/488 (21%) required a dose increase of which 77 (16%) were receiving at least a 30% increase in dose over baseline. The percentage of those in ethnic groups requiring a dose increase of >30% varied from 8.0% for South Asians to 27.5% for East Asians (P = 0.03), despite East Asians having a similar baseline dose of Tac-BID (3.59 mg/day) compared to the entire cohort (3.53 mg/day). Conclusions Ethnicity may play an important role in dosing requirements when converting from Tac-BID to Tac-OD, unrelated to baseline dose. Further investigation is required to determine the reasons for ethnic variability when patients are converted between tacrolimus preparations

Serum catalytic Iron: A novel biomarker for coronary artery disease in patients on maintenance hemodialysis

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. We evaluated the role of serum catalytic iron (SCI) as a biomarker for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients on MHD. SCI was measured in 59 stable MHD patients. All patients underwent coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined as a > 70% narrowing in at least one epicardial coronary artery. Levels of SCI were compared with a group of healthy controls. Significant CAD was detected in 22 (37.3%) patients, with one vessel disease in 14 (63.63%) and multi-vessel disease in eight (36.36%) patients. The MHD patients had elevated levels of SCI (4.70 ± 1.79 μmol/L) compared with normal health survey participants (0.11 ± 0.01 μmol/L) (P < 0.0001). MHD patients who had no CAD had SCI levels of 1.36 ± 0.34 μmol/L compared with those having significant CAD (8.92 ± 4.12 μmol/L) (P < 0.0001). Patients on MHD and diabetes had stronger correlation between SCI and prevalence of CAD compared with non-diabetics. Patients having one vessel disease had SCI of 8.85 ± 4.67 μmol/L versus multi-vessel disease with SCI of 9.05 ± 8.34 μmol/L, P = 0.48. In multivariate analysis, SCI and diabetes mellitus were independently associated with significant CAD. We confirm the high prevalence of significant CAD in MHD patients. Elevated SCI levels are associated with presence of significant coronary disease in such patients. The association of SCI is higher in diabetic versus the non-diabetic subgroup. This is an important potentially modifiable biomarker of CAD in MHD patients

SARS-CoV-2 infection in a patient on chronic hydroxychloroquine therapy: Implications for prophylaxis

People exposed to COVID-19 have a risk of developing disease, and health care workers are at risk at a time when they are badly needed during a health care crisis. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been used as treatment and are being considered as prophylaxis. Our patient developed COVID-19 while on hydroxychloroquine and although more work is needed, this calls into question the role of these medications as preventive therapy

Cholera in Ecuador: Current Relevance of Past Lessons Learnt

This report analyses the trends in the cholera epidemic that hit Ecuador in 1991. The study is based on personal experiences and analysis of epidemiological databases from the Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador. The number of cases and initial attack rates in an immunologically naive population are described by province. An analysis of the Andean and coastal cholera patterns of transmission are described along with its associated risk factors. The logistical, environmental, and socio-cultural risk factors prevalent during the epidemic and the control measures implemented are also reviewed. Also, the role of the epidemic in the development of the public health and healthcare resources in Ecuador is discussed here. Current data indicate favorable conditions for another outbreak of cholera in Ecuador. In view of the existing risk factors, new strategies are proposed to prevent such an epidemic in the future

Pharmacokinetics of Posaconazole Administered Orally or by Nasogastric Tube in Healthy Volunteers▿

The use of a nasogastric tube is one means of administering antifungal therapy to critically ill patients unable to receive medication via the oral route. This was a phase 1, open-label, single-center, randomized, crossover study of posaconazole administered via nasogastric tube in healthy volunteers. Each subject received two 400-mg single doses of posaconazole, one administered orally and one administered by nasogastric tube, with a 7-day washout period between each dose. Posaconazole was administered 5 to 10 min after subjects received a nutritional supplement. Blood samples for pharmacokinetic analysis were obtained up to 120 h postdose. The analysis of variance estimate of the study population suggests that the posaconazole nasogastric tube administration least-square mean values of observed maximum concentration (Cmax), area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) to the last measurable concentration, and AUC to time infinity were 81%, 76%, and 77%, respectively, of the corresponding oral administration values. The reason for lower Cmax and AUC values when posaconazole is administered via the nasogastric tube route is not known. Oral and nasogastric tube administration of a single 400-mg dose of posaconazole suspension was safe and well tolerated in healthy adult subjects. The incidence and nature of treatment-emergent adverse events were similar with both administration routes, and no serious adverse events or clinically significant laboratory test or vital sign abnormalities were reported. Obtaining plasma posaconazole concentrations may be warranted when posaconazole is given to patients via a nasogastric tube to ensure adequate posaconazole exposure. Strategies that have been shown to enhance posaconazole exposure (such as splitting the dose and minimizing the use of proton pump inhibitors) may also be used