Managing White-nose Syndrome in Bats: A Spatially Dynamic Modelling Approach

White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the invasive fungal patho­gen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is a virulent disease that has plagued North American bat populations since 2006. Over the past decade WNS has rapidly spread throughout much of the Eastern and Mid­ western United States, leading to mass mortality and threatening re­gional extinction in a number of bat species. Thus, the need for development and implementation of effective control strategies has become increasingly exigent. While previous mathematical modelling studies have evaluated the efficacy of several proposed treatment methods, nothing is known about the impact of seasonal bat dispersal on such potential interventions. We investigate how spatial disease dynamics could affect the success of five promising WNS control strategies by posing and analysing a two-subpopulation mathematical model with migration. We demonstrate that the most effective management decisions must take interpopulation movement into account, and find that the effect of dispersal on control efficacy is mostly negative but depends on both the control combination and the primary mode of disease transmission

P-46 A Periodic Matrix Model of Seabird Behavior and Population Dynamics

Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Northwest lead to food resource reductions for surface-feeding seabirds, and have been correlated with several marked behavioral changes. Namely, higher SSTs are associated with increased egg cannibalism and egg-laying synchrony in the colony. We study the long-term effects of climate change on population dynamics and survival by considering a simplified, cross-season model that incorporates both of these behaviors in addition to density-dependent and environmental effects. We show that cannibalism can lead to backward bifurcations and strong Allee effects, allowing the population to survive at lower resource levels than would be possible otherwise

P-15 Managing White-nose Syndrome in Bats: A Spatially Dynamic Modeling Approach

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a rapidly spreading fungal disease that has caused unprecedented mass mortality among hibernating North American bat populations. Many control strategies are in development, but nothing is known about the impact of seasonal bat dispersal on those potential interventions. We study the spatial dynamics of WNS by posing and analyzing a two-patch model that incorporates five promising WNS treatment methods. We find that optimum management decisions must take interpopulation movement into account, and show that the effects of dispersal depend on both the control combination and the primary mode of disease transmission