Exploring causality from observational data: An example assessing whether religiosity promotes cooperation

Causal inference from observational data is notoriously difficult, and relies upon many unverifiable assumptions, including no confounding or selection bias. Here, we demonstrate how to apply a range of sensitivity analyses to examine whether a causal interpretation from observational data may be justified. These methods include: testing different confounding structures (as the assumed confounding model may be incorrect), exploring potential residual confounding, and assessing the impact of selection bias due to missing data. We aim to answer the causal question “Does religiosity promote cooperative behaviour?” as a motivating example of how these methods can be applied. We use data from the parental generation of a large-scale (n = approx. 14,000) prospective UK birth cohort (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), which has detailed information on religiosity and potential confounding variables, while cooperation was measured via self-reported history of blood donation. In this study, there was no association between religious belief or affiliation and blood donation. Religious attendance was positively associated with blood donation, but could plausibly be explained by unmeasured confounding. In this population, evidence that religiosity causes blood donation is suggestive, but rather weak. These analyses illustrate how sensitivity analyses can aid causal inference from observational research

Cooperation and partner choice among Agta hunter-gatherer children: An evolutionary developmental perspective

Examining development is essential for a full understanding of behaviour, including how individuals acquire traits and how adaptive evolutionary forces shape these processes. The present study explores the development of cooperative behaviour among the Agta, a Filipino hunter-gatherer population. A simple resource allocation game assessing both levels of cooperation (how much children shared) and patterns of partner choice (who they shared with) was played with 179 children between the ages of 3 and 18. Children were given five resources (candies) and for each was asked whether to keep it for themselves or share with someone else, and if so, who this was. Between-camp variation in children's cooperative behaviour was substantial, and the only strong predictor of children's cooperation was the average level of cooperation among adults in camp; that is, children were more cooperative in camps where adults were more cooperative. Neither age, sex, relatedness or parental levels of cooperation were strongly associated with the amount children shared. Children preferentially shared with close kin (especially siblings), although older children increasingly shared with less-related individuals. Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding cross-cultural patterns of children's cooperation, and broader links with human cooperative childcare and life history evolution

Cooperation and partner choice among Agta hunter-gatherer children:an evolutionary developmental perspective

Examining development is essential for a full understanding of behaviour, including how individuals acquire traits and how adaptive evolutionary forces shape these processes. The present study explores cooperative development among the Agta, a Filipino hunter-gatherer population. A simple resource allocation game assessing both levels of cooperation (how much children shared) and patterns of partner choice (who they shared with) was played with 179 children between the ages of 3 and 18. Children were given five resources (candies) and for each was asked whether to keep it for themselves or share with someone else, and if so, who this was. Between-camp variation in children’s cooperative behaviour was substantial, and the only strong predictor of children’s cooperation was the average level of cooperation among adults in camp; that is, children were more cooperative in camps where adults were more cooperative. Neither age, sex, relatedness or parental levels of cooperation were strongly associated with the amount children shared. Children preferentially shared with close kin (especially siblings), although older children increasingly shared with less-related individuals. Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding cross-cultural patterns of children’s cooperation, and broader links with human cooperative childcare and life history evolution

Reflexive and Selective Competitive Behaviors—Inertia, Imitation, and Interfirm Rivalry

Competitive dynamics research has established the important impact that the level of firm competitive activity has on rival response and firm performance. Less understood, however, are inputs that influence firm activity, specifically, the extent to which firms reflexively repeat prior activity versus selectively taking actions. Drawing from the awareness–motivation–capability framework, we develop and test theory that firm decision makers are not only predisposed to behave reflexively, but are also influenced by contextual factors, suggesting cognitive selection. Utilizing a longitudinal sample of marketing activity of 58 firms and 2,164 firm–rival dyads in 11 industries, we find that firms undertake both reflexive and selective competitive processes. Positive effects of prior levels of activity are moderated by the firm’s own prior performance, as well as the rivals’ similarity and industry standing

Associations between religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours and dietary patterns: analysis of the parental generation in a prospective cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England

Abstract Objective: Religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (RSBB) have been associated with health outcomes, with diet a potential mediator of this relationship. We therefore explored whether RSBBs were associated with differences in diet. Design: Dietary patterns and nutrient intakes were derived from food frequency questionnaires completed by pregnant women in 1991-1992 (mean age=28.3 years, range=15-46), and by the mothers and partners 4 years post-partum (mothers mean age=32.3, range=19-49; partners mean age=34.5, range=18-74). RSBB exposures measured in pregnancy included religious belief, affiliation and attendance. We first explored whether RSBBs were associated with dietary patterns in confounder-adjusted linear regression models. If associations were found, we examined whether RSBBs were associated with nutrient intake (linear regression) and following nutrient intake guidelines (logistic regression). Setting: Prospective birth cohort study in Southwest England (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; ALSPAC). Participants: 13,689 enrolled mothers and their associated partners. Results: In pregnant women, RSBBs were associated with higher “traditional” (i.e., ‘meat and two veg’) and lower “vegetarian” dietary pattern scores. Religious attendance and non-Christian religious affiliation were associated with higher “health-conscious” dietary pattern scores. Religious attendance was associated with increased micronutrient intake and following recommended micronutrient intake guidelines, with weaker effects for religious belief and affiliation. Comparable patterns were observed for mothers and partners 4 years post-partum, although associations between RSBBs and nutrient intakes were weaker for partners. Conclusions: RSBBs are associated with broad dietary patterns and nutrient intake in this cohort. If these reflect causal relationships, diet may potentially mediate the pathway between RSBB and health

The impact of routines on emotional and behavioural difficulties in children and on parental anxiety during COVID-19

BackgroundThe Covid-19 pandemic and related public health measures, including lockdowns and school closures, have impacted on mental health of children.Aims and hypothesisWe hypothesised that there would be an association between maintaining a routine during lockdown and both lower emotional and behavioural difficulties in children and lower parental anxiety. Routine was taken as keeping to the same basic activities such as mealtimes and bedtimes. We also hypothesised that children of ‘keyworker’ parents would have fewer emotional and behavioural symptoms due to having maintained more normal routines. The key reason was that children of keyworkers still attended school or nursery and parents would have been getting up and coming home at the same times as pre-Covid. Keyworker status was defined as those whose work was essential to Covid-19 response, including work in health and social care and other key sectors.MethodsWe used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) to explore associations between maintaining a routine, and emotional and behavioural difficulties in children, using linear regression models. All eligible ALSPAC-G2 participants were sent the survey and the responders are representative of the eligible G2 population. We included measures of parental anxiety. We separately explored associations with having a keyworker parent. We used the Carey Infant Temperament Questionnaire and the Revised Rutter Parent Scale for Preschool Children to establish levels of emotional and behavioural difficulties. The measures were chosen to match previous waves in multi-generations in ALSPAC where they had been shown to be predictive of later mental health in children. The scales measure emotional and behavioural problems.ResultsTwo hundred eighty-nine parents completed questionnaires about their 411 children. Keeping a routine was associated with emotional and behavioural difficulty scores 5.0 points lower (95% CI −10.0 to −0.1), p = 0.045 than not keeping a routine. Parents who reported keeping a routine had anxiety scores 4.3 points lower (95% CI −7.5 to −1.1), p = 0.009 than those who did not. Children of keyworkers tended to have lower emotional and behavioural difficulty scores [−3.1 (95%CI −6.26 to 0.08), p = 0.056] than children of non-keyworkers. All models were adjusted for relevant potential confounders.ConclusionMaintaining a routine may be beneficial for both child emotional wellbeing and parental anxiety, although it is also possible that lower parental anxiety levels made maintaining a routine easier. Being the child of a keyworker parent during lockdown may have been protective for child emotional wellbeing