What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) project of NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies that will enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. This presents a particular challenge in the aviation system where people are key components and human error is frequently cited as a major contributing factor or cause of incidents and accidents. In the aviation "world", information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. This report describes a conceptual model and an approach to automated analyses of textual data sources for the subjective perspective of the reporter of the incident to aid in understanding why an incident occurred. It explores a first-generation process for routinely searching large databases of textual reports of aviation incident or accidents, and reliably analyzing them for causal factors of human behavior (the why of an incident). We have defined a generic structure of information that is postulated to be a sound basis for defining similarities between aviation incidents. Based on this structure, we have introduced the simplifying structure, which we call the Scenario as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. We believe that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that will aid aviation-safety experts to understand the systemic issues that are conducive to human error

The Mode Of Delivery And The Risk Of Vertical Transmission Of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1. A Meta-Analysis Of 15 Prospective Cohort Studies

Background To evaluate the relation between elective cesarean section and vertical transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), we performed a meta-analysis using data on individual patients from 15 prospective cohort studies. Methods North American and European studies of at least 100 mother-child pairs were included in the meta-analysis. Uniform definitions of modes of delivery were used. Elective cesarean sections were defined as those performed before onset of labor and rupture of membranes. Multivariate logistic-regression analysis was used to adjust for other factors known to be associated with vertical transmission. Results The primary analysis included data on 8533 mother-child pairs. After adjustment for receipt of antiretroviral therapy, maternal stage of disease, and infant birth weight, the likelihood of vertical transmission of HIV-1 was decreased by approximately 50 percent with elective cesarean section, as compared with other modes of delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.33 to 0.56). The results were similar when the study population was limited to those with rupture of membranes shortly before delivery. The likelihood of transmission was reduced by approximately 87 percent with both elective cesarean section and receipt of antiretroviral therapy during the prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal periods, as compared with other modes of delivery and the absence of therapy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.13; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.09 to 0.19), Among mother-child pairs receiving antiretroviral therapy during the prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal periods, rates of vertical transmission were 2.0 percent among the 196 mothers who underwent elective cesarean section and 7.3 percent among the 1255 mothers with other modes of delivery. Conclusions The results of this meta-analysis suggest that elective cesarean section reduces the risk of transmission of HIV-1 from mother to child independently of the effects of treatment with zidovudine. (N Engl J Med 1999;340:977-87.) (C)1999, Massachusetts Medical Society