Energy subsidies at times of economic crisis: A comparative study and scenario analysis of Italy and Spain

From 2005-2012, Spain and Italy saw significant investment in renewable energy, most notably in onshore wind and solar, driven by generous subsidies, the expectation of rising carbon prices and falling renewables (especially solar panel) costs. As a result of the Global Financial Crisis, both countries were faced with massive fiscal deficits and were forced to curtail their renewable support schemes, although these efforts took several years to take effect after the onset of the initial crisis. Ironically, both Spain and Italy incurred the lion's share of their liability for renewables support after the onset of the crisis particularly because of the rapid drop in costs of solar PV panels, while subsidy levels remained high. In spite of changes to their support regimes, Italy is likely to meet its 2020 climate and renewable targets, whereas Spain is unlikely to meet its 2020 renewables target based on current trajectories. Following a comparative historical survey of the two large EU member states, we present a scenario analysis that contrasts alternative futures of 2030 where renewable support remain at current levels (essentially zero) or is revived and where carbon prices stay at current low levels (€5/t CO2) or rises to levels needed to accomplish the proposed 40% EU 2030 reduction target. We find that, by 2030, in large parts of Spain, solar PV will be cost-competitive even under low-carbon price and low renewable support regimes, whereas concentrated solar power (CSP) and onshore wind, will require at least either a sustained renewable support regime or a high carbon price to become cost competitive. In Italy, solar PV becomes cost competitive in the low-carbon, low-renewable support scenario except when fossil fuel prices are unusually low. By 2030, there would be large-scale penetration of onshore wind and geothermal in Italy if there is either a high-carbon price or a high renewable support regime or both. In general, if the current levels of carbon price were to exist post-2020, both Italy and Spain would find it rather difficult to increase the penetration of renewables in their electricity mix. A high subsidy world, on the other hand, would be result in the most favourable outcome, particularly for Spain, although it may incur additional costs in comparison to a high carbon price world.Spai

Political economy of independent regulation in India's natural gas industry

Based on a case study of India's downstream hydrocarbon regulator, this article argues that the success or failure of independent regulation in industries supplying basic goods and services is determined by the politico-economic context in which the regulator functions. In a developing country with a large number of poor people without access to basic necessities such as water, energy, or roads, independent economic regulation by itself can deliver little, unless backed by a strong political will

Modeling Vacuum Arcs

We are developing a model of vacuum arcs. This model assumes that arcs develop as a result of mechanical failure of the surface due to Coulomb explosions, followed by ionization of fragments by field emission and the development of a small, dense plasma that interacts with the surface primarily through self sputtering and terminates as a unipolar arc capable of producing breakdown sites with high enhancement factors. We have attempted to produce a self consistent picture of triggering, arc evolution and surface damage. We are modeling these mechanisms using Molecular Dynamics (mechanical failure, Coulomb explosions, self sputtering), Particle-In-Cell (PIC) codes (plasma evolution), mesoscale surface thermodynamics (surface evolution), and finite element electrostatic modeling (field enhancements). We can present a variety of numerical results. We identify where our model differs from other descriptions of this phenomenon.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Analysis of homogeneous turbulent reacting flows

Full turbulence simulations at low Reynolds numbers were made for the single-step, irreversible, bimolecular reaction between non-premixed reactants in isochoric, decaying homogeneous turbulence. Various initial conditions for the scalar field were used in the simulations to control the initial scalar dissipation length scale, and simulations were also made for temperature-dependent reaction rates and for non-stoichiometric and unequal diffusivity conditions. Joint probability density functions (pdf's), conditional pdf's, and various statistical quantities appearing in the moment equations were computed. Preliminary analysis of the results indicates that compressive strain-rate correlates better than other dynamical quantities with local reaction rate, and the locations of peak reaction rates seem to be insensitive to the scalar field initial conditions

Who can wait for the future? A personality perspective

Who can wait for larger, delayed rewards rather than smaller, immediate ones? Delay discounting (DD) measures the rate at which subjective value of an outcome decreases as the length of time to obtaining it increases. Previous work has shown that greater DD predicts negative academic, social, and health outcomes. Yet, little is known about who is likely to engage in greater or less DD. Taking a personality perspective, in a large sample (N = 5,888), we found that greater DD was predicted by low openness and conscientiousness and higher extraversion and neuroticism. Smaller amounts were also discounted more than larger amounts; furthermore, amount magnified the effects of openness and neuroticism on DD. Our findings show that personality is one predictor of individual differences in DD-an important implication for intervention approaches targeted at DD. © The Author(s) 2013.Vaishali Mahalingam was supported by a ‘Cambridge Nehru Bursary’ from the Nehru Trust for Cambridge University. David Stillwell was supported by an ESRC studentship (ES/F021801/1). He also receives revenue as an owner of the ‘My Personality’ website. Michal Kosinski received funding from Boeing Corporation

Gallium Desorption Behavior At AlGaAs/GaAs Heterointerfaces During High-temperature Molecular Beam Epitaxy

A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to investigate the Ga desorption behavior during AlGaAs-on-GaAs heterointerface formation by molecular beam epitaxy. The transients in the Ga desorption rate upon opening the Al shutter are shown to be associated with the concurrent reduction in the V/III flux ratio. Monte Carlo simulations employing a constant V/III flux ratio yield a “steplike” variation in the Ga desorption rate with the resulting interfaces closer in abruptness to the ideal AlGaAs-on-GaAs interface. Further details on the stoichiometry of the interface and its relationship with predicted Ga desorption profiles is presented

A computer adaptive measure of delay discounting

Delay discounting has been linked to important behavioral, health, and social outcomes, including academic achievement, social functioning and substance use, but thoroughly measuring delay discounting is tedious and time consuming. We develop and consistently validate an efficient and psychometrically sound computer adaptive measure of discounting. First, we develop a binary search–type algorithm to measure discounting using a large international data set of 4,190 participants. Using six independent samples ($N$ = 1,550), we then present evidence of concurrent validity with two standard measures of discounting and a measure of discounting real rewards, convergent validity with addictive behavior, impulsivity, personality, survival probability; and divergent validity with time perspective, life satisfaction, age and gender. The new measure is considerably shorter than standard questionnaires, includes a range of time delays, can be applied to multiple reward magnitudes, shows excellent concurrent, convergent, divergent, and discriminant validity—by showing more sensitivity to effects of smoking behavior on discounting.Nehru Trust for Cambridge University, Cambridge Overseas Trus

The problem of RF gradient limits

We describe breakdown in rf accelerator cavities in terms of a number of mechanisms. We divide the breakdown process into three stages: 1) we model surface failure using molecular dynamics of fracture caused by electrostatic tensile stress, 2) the ionization and plasma growth is modeled using a particle in cell code, 3) we model surface damage by assuming unipolar arcing. Although unipolar arcs are strictly defined with equipotential boundaries, we find that the cold, dense plasma in contact with the surface produces very small Debye lengths and very high electric fields over a large area, and these high fields produce strong erosion mechanisms, primarily self sputtering, compatible with crater formation.We compare this model with arcs in tokamaks, plasma ablation, electron beam welding, micrometeorite impacts, and other examples

The Sasa-Satsuma higher order nonlinear Schrodinger equation and its bilinearization and multi-soliton solutions

Higher order and multicomponent generalizations of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation are important in various applications, e.g., in optics. One of these equations, the integrable Sasa-Satsuma equation, has particularly interesting soliton solutions. Unfortunately the construction of multi-soliton solutions to this equation presents difficulties due to its complicated bilinearization. We discuss briefly some previous attempts and then give the correct bilinearization based on the interpretation of the Sasa-Satsuma equation as a reduction of the three-component Kadomtsev-Petvishvili hierarchy. In the process we also get bilinearizations and multi-soliton formulae for a two component generalization of the Sasa-Satsuma equation (the Yajima-Oikawa-Tasgal-Potasek model), and for a (2+1)-dimensional generalization.Comment: 13 pages in RevTex, added reference