Forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations and inflation forecast targeting: the case of six European economies

Budući da postoje različiti načini otkrivanja namjera središnjih banaka, pojavljuje se jednostavno istraživačko pitanje, koje se razmatra u ovoj studiji. Je li komponenta očekivanja potrošača usmjerena na budućnost povezana s načinom na koji središnje banke otkrivaju i koriste prognoze? Istraživanje obuhvaća šest zemalja: Češku, Mađarsku, Rumunjsku, Poljsku, Švedsku i Veliku Britaniju, u razdoblju od 2001. do 2016. godine. Naša metodologija sastoji se od kvantifikacije očekivanja, testova racionalnosti očekivanja, procjene stupnja njihove usmjerenosti na budućnost, indeksne procjene prognoziranja centralnih banaka o transparentnosti i važnosti prognoze u monetarnoj politici, kao i korelacijskog ispitivanja dalekovidnosti monetarne politike i pogreške očekivanja. Na temelju dovršenog istraživanja povezujemo rezultate analize usmjerenosti na budućnost s indeksnom procjenom ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije. Rezultati su različiti. Najviši stupanj usmjerenosti očekivanja na budućnost nalazi se u Velikoj Britaniji i Švedskoj. Očekivanja čeških potrošača su manje usmjerena na budućnost, dok je uključenost centralnih banaka u ciljano prognoziranje inflacije usporediva sa švedskim slučajem. Dvije zemlje nemaju komponentu usmjerenu na buduća očekivanja potrošača. Studija daje vrijedan doprinos postojećoj literaturi jer predstavlja novi pristup analizi odnosa između prognoze i ciljanog prognoziranja inflacije i očekivanja usmjerenih na budućnost.Since there are different ways of revealing central banks’ intentions, a simple research question, which we address in this study, arises. Is the forward-looking (FL) component of consumers’ expectations related to the way in which the forecast is revealed and used by central banks? The research covers six countries: The Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, over the period of 2001-2016. Our methodology consists of the quantification of expectations, tests for rationality of expectations, estimation of the degree of their FL, the index-based assessment of central banks’ forecasting transparency and importance of forecasts in monetary policy, as well as correlation examination of forward-lookingness of monetary policy and expectation errors. Based on the completed research, we link the results of the FL analysis to the index-based assessment of inflation forecasts targeting. The results are varied. The highest degree of expectations’ FL is found for the UK and Sweden. Czech consumers’ expectations are less FL, whereas central banks’ involvement in inflation forecast targeting is comparable to the Swedish case. For two countries we found no forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations. The study makes a valid contribution to the existing literature as it presents a novel approach to analysing the relation between forecasts and inflation forecast targeting and expectations

Idea odpowiedzialnego kredytowania na rynku niebankowych kredytów konsumenckich w Polsce

W rzeczywistości pokryzysowej, wobec dużej skali zjawiska nadmiernego zadłużania się konsumentów i jego negatywnych skutków zarówno w wymiarze indywidualnym, jak i globalnym, problem odpowiedzialnego kredytowania przez kredytodawców i odpowiedzialnego pożyczania przez konsumentów staje się coraz donioślejszy. Jest to istotne, z uwagi na generowanie ryzyka kredytowego, systemowego, a także negatywne skutki społeczne. Idea ta przestaje mieć formę jedynie postulatu, lecz staje się przedmiotem regulacji i szeroko rozumianego orzecznictwa. Jest ona realizowana przez prawidłowe badanie zdolności kredytowej konsumenta przez kredytodawców, tak przed udzieleniem kredytu, jak i w trakcie trwania kredytowania oraz informowanie go o warunkach umowy kredytowej, w tym w szczególności o ponoszonych przez niego kosztach, jak i konsekwencjach prawnych oraz ekonomicznych niewykonywania tej umowy przez konsumenta. Celem opracowania jest zaprezentowanie idei odpowiedzialnego kredytowania jedynie po stronie kredytodawców, jakimi są niebankowe instytucje pożyczkowe, bez analizowania odpowiedzialnego pożyczania przez kredytobiorców konsumentów, sposobów jej realizacji oraz egzekwowania i stosowania w praktyce

Aromatase inhibitor therapy for endometrial stromal sarcoma — two-centre experience

Objectives: Endocrine therapy is the recommended systemic treatment for steroid receptor positive endometrial stromalsarcoma (ESS). There is no current consensus on the optimal hormonal therapy for ESS. The literature offers several reports on advanced/recurrent/metastatic ESS patients treated with progestins, whereas data on the efficacy of aromatase inhibitors are scarce.Material and methods: We retrospectively identified cases treated for ESS with aromatase inhibitors at our institutions. There were five patients with advanced or unresectable recurrent estrogen, progesterone and androgen receptor-positive ESS, treated with aromatase inhibitors: letrozole or anastrozole (at a daily dose of 2.5 mg and 1 mg, respectively), as first-line endocrine therapy in all but one case treated following progression with megestrol acetate.Results: Disease stabilization was achieved in four cases (80%), including two with long-term progression-free survivalfor up to 10 years attained under letrozole treatment, and one case after prior progestin treatment. During therapy, nosubstantial toxicity was observed.Conclusions: Aromatase inhibitors as first- or second-line endocrine treatment achieve disease control in most steroidreceptor positive ESS. Our series of cases is evidence of aromatase inhibitors efficacy as long-term endocrine treatmentoption for ESS patients

Inflation expectations after financial crisis: are consumers more forward-looking?

In this paper we investigate whether consumer inflation expectations in the E.U. Member States (M.S.) were more forward-looking after the onset of the financial crisis (October 2008–2016) and after the most turbulent times (2013–2016). We compare the results with pre-crisis forward-lookingness (2002–September 2008). Our examination covers the euro area and M.S. with national currencies. We study the properties of expectations, i.e., expectational errors, and macroeconomic efficiency of expectations, as well as estimating the hybrid specification of expectations. We examine panel data. We found that the properties of expectations changed after the crisis sparked off and in the low inflation and deflation environment. We also discovered that formation patterns of expectations within the euro area subsample and non-euro area M.S. sample vary. As far as we know, so far no comparison of expectations properties, especially forward-lookingness among M.S. with and without common monetary policy, has been presented in the literature nor were panel data examined for the post-crisis period. Hence, the paper contributes to the literature on the properties of expectations in the E.U

Thyroid dysfunction in patients with diabetic retinopathy

Thyroid disease and diabetes mellitus (DM) are the most common endocrinopathies in clinical practice that interact with each other. On the one hand, thyroid hormones regulate carbohydrate metabolism and pancreas functions, and on the other hand DM affects the function and work of the thyroid gland. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a highly specific neurovascular complication of both type 1 and type 2 DM, which is a significant cause of vision loss on a global scale. In DM, the internal blood-retinal barrier is the earliest to be damaged, and changes in neuroretina result from the loss of its adaptation to metabolic disorders. Patients with DM have a higher incidence of thyroid disease compared to people without DM. The coexistence of DM with thyroid disease leads to endothelial damage, and the degree of its dysfunction has a significant impact on the course of macro- and microangiopathic complications in patients. There are few reports in the literature about the impact of thyroid disease and substitution of levothyroxine preparations on the development and course of DR in patients with DM. It is unknown whether the fact that patients with unrecognised hypothyroidism are not treated with levothyroxine preparations disrupts thyroid hormone homeostasis to the extent that it may contribute to a higher incidence of DR. This review discusses recent clinical trials for thyroid dysfunction in patients with DR.