Timeline showing periods used to calculate adherence measures and baseline variables.

<p>Outcome variable is proportion of days covered (PDC) by statin for days 91-365, respectively. Three baseline variables are calculated from the first non-statin prescription to the index date. Presence of ACS (acute coronary syndrome) as a baseline variable was determined in the 30 days prior to statin initiation. Nine baseline variables including early PDC are calculated from statin prescriptions in days 1-90. Time from eligibility to initiation is required to be 180 days (in both models) in order to include those truly initiating statins, and not those merely continuing statins after switching insurance plans. </p

Model performance versus time of prediction.

<p>Separate curves are presented for members whose first statin fill was for 30 days or less (circles), and for members whose first statin fill was for more than 30 days (triangles). For the ≤30 day subset, performance improves sharply between days 30 and 31, and it improves steadily thereafter. However, for the >30 day subset, (most of whom had 90-day fills,) performance improves sharply only after day 90. Each Y coordinate expresses the performance of a model that uses prescription fills from days 1 to X to predict adherence from days X to 365.</p

Study flow diagram showing exclusion criteria.

<p>The sum of members who met each individual exclusion criterion does not equal the total number excluded because one member can meet more than one exclusion criterion.</p