17 research outputs found

    Drizzle formation in stratocumulus clouds: effects of turbulent mixing

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    The mechanism of drizzle formation in shallow stratocumulus clouds and the effect of turbulent mixing on this process are investigated. A Lagrangian–Eularian model of the cloud-topped boundary layer is used to simulate the cloud measured during flight RF07 of the DYCOMS-II field experiment. The model contains ~ 2000 air parcels that are advected in a turbulence-like velocity field. In the model all microphysical processes are described for each Lagrangian air volume, and turbulent mixing between the parcels is also taken into account. It was found that the first large drops form in air volumes that are closest to adiabatic and characterized by high humidity, extended residence near cloud top, and maximum values of liquid water content, allowing the formation of drops as a result of efficient collisions. The first large drops form near cloud top and initiate drizzle formation in the cloud. Drizzle is developed only when turbulent mixing of parcels is included in the model. Without mixing, the cloud structure is extremely inhomogeneous and the few large drops that do form in the cloud evaporate during their sedimentation. It was found that turbulent mixing can delay the process of drizzle initiation but is essential for the further development of drizzle in the cloud

    Theoretical investigation of mixing in warm clouds – Part 2: Homogeneous mixing

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    Evolution of monodisperse and polydisperse droplet size distributions (DSD) during homogeneous mixing is analyzed. Time-dependent universal analytical expressions for supersaturation and liquid water content are derived. For an initial monodisperse DSD, these quantities are shown to depend on a sole non-dimensional parameter. The evolution of moments and moment-related functions in the course of homogeneous evaporation of polydisperse DSD is analyzed using a parcel model.<br><br>It is shown that the classic conceptual scheme, according to which homogeneous mixing leads to a decrease in droplet mass at constant droplet concentration, is valid only in cases of monodisperse or initially very narrow polydisperse DSD. In cases of wide polydisperse DSD, mixing and successive evaporation lead to a decrease of both mass and concentration, so the characteristic droplet sizes remain nearly constant. As this feature is typically associated with inhomogeneous mixing, we conclude that in cases of an initially wide DSD at cloud top, homogeneous mixing is nearly indistinguishable from inhomogeneous mixing

    The sources of extreme precipitation predictability; the case of the ‘Wet’ Red Sea Trough

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    Extreme precipitation events inflict detrimental socio-economic impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean. These are mainly associated with Mediterranean cyclones or the ‘Wet’ Red Sea Trough (WRST). The region's weather forecasters consider the second challenging to forecast, even just a few days in advance. Here, we study the dynamic and thermodynamic factors influencing the intrinsic predictability of WRST events. With this aim, we combine insights from traditional atmospheric analysis techniques, Lagrangian air-parcel backward trajectories, and dynamical systems theory. The latter describes atmospheric states via their local dimension (d) and inverse persistence (θ), which inform us of the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere in phase space. We compare WRST events of low (upper decile of d and θ) with high (lower decile of d and θ) predictability. We argue that low-predictability events display a significantly different atmospheric pattern. Moreover, the low-predictability events show significantly higher daily precipitation rates, more extensive spatial spread, and greater precipitation variability among events than more predictable ones. On average, low predictability events are initiated by two distinct moisture sources with different water vapor content. We conclude that the dynamical systems framework may become a valuable tool to improve the forecast of extreme precipitation events associated with the WRST by providing a priori information on their intrinsic predictability. We foresee successfully implementing such a framework for other extreme weather events and regions
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