The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process

Do Mixed Unions Foster Integration? The Educational Outcomes of Mixed-Parentage Children in Italy

We investigate the nexus between intermarriage and immigrant integration by analyzing mixed-parentage children’s educational outcomes. We use Italian Labor Force Survey data to compare the upper secondary school participation of children of different types of mixed unions with that of children of two native and two migrant couples. Our results show that mixed-parentage children perform halfway between natives and immigrants, but their educational careers are highly heterogeneous. Among families with non-Western origins, mixed-parentage children improve substantially with respect to their peers with two migrant parents. But if the mother was born abroad, the children still exhibit higher dropout risks and lower general school enrolment as compared to children of natives and all other mixed-parentage children. A pivotal role in accounting for this educational disadvantage is played by the higher incidence in this specific type of union of nonstandard family dynamics and household fragilities that may give rise to less parental monitoring and lower educational performance. This finding is consistent with a prediction based on the status exchange theory, according to which such unions are more likely affected by instability and conflict

The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Breznau N, Rinke EM, Wuttke A, et al. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report. 2019

Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Breznau N, Rinke EM, Wuttke A, et al. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. 2021.This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to include conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis and that may lead to diverging results. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of research based on secondary data, we find that research teams reported widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predicted the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 90% of the total variance in numerical results remained unexplained even after accounting for research decisions identified via qualitative coding of each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that is hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a new explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. It calls for greater humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings