Phase transition in the globalization of trade

Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic globalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could improve the understanding of globalization at the same time that help a formal basis for comparative economic history. In this letter, we investigate the time evolution of the statistical properties of bilateral trade imbalances between countries in the trade system. We measure their cumulative probability distribution at different moments in time to discover a sudden transition circa 1960 from a regime where the distribution was always represented by a steady characteristic function to a new state where the distribution dilates as time goes on. This suggests that the rule that was governing the statistical behavior of bilateral trade imbalances until the 60's abruptly changed to a new form persistent in the last decades. In the new regime, the figures for the different years collapse into a universal master curve when rescaled by the corresponding global gross domestic product value. This coupling points to an increased interdependence of world economies and its onset corresponds in time with the starting of the last globalization wave.Comment: Final versio

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: A SIMULATION STUDY

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is smaller than for population and income changes.Tourism demand, climate change, global model

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change. The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase fast as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. The effects of climate change, however, are small compared to the baseline projections.International tourism, climate change impacts, carbon dioxide emissions, scenarios

Climate preferences and destination choice: a segmentation approach

A data set of the holiday destination choices of German tourists is segmented using phase in the life cycle; second, holiday motivation and holiday activities and third, the region of residency. For each segment demand is estimated using data on environmental and economic characteristics of countries. The optimal temperature, where demand peaks, ranges from 22°C to 24°C across the segments. More interestingly, the steepness of the temperature demand relationship is different for different segments. Even though the temperature optima are similar, changes in temperature, for example caused by climate change will have a larger effect on demand depending on the steepness of the temperature-demand relationship. A climate index is calculated for each country using climate data and the respective coefficients from the estimated demand equations. The climate index values are different across the segments: the segment containing those tourists who were swimming and sunbathing while on holiday has the highest index values of all of the segments.tourism demand, segmentation, climate preferences

Increased burn healing time is associated with higher Vancouver Scar Scale score

Increased burn wound healing time has been shown to influence abnormal scarring. This study hypothesized that scar severity increases commensurate to the increase in time to healing (TTH) of the wound. Wound healing and scar data from burn patients treated by the Burn Service of Western Australia at Royal Perth Hospital were examined. The relationship between TTH and scar severity, as assessed by the modified Vancouver Scar Scale (mVSS), was modelled using regression analysis. Interaction terms evaluated the effect of surgery and total body surface area – burn (TBSA) on the main relationship. Maximum likelihood estimation was used to account for potential bias from missing independent variable data. The sample had a median age of 34 years, TTH of 24 days, TBSA of 3% and length of stay of five days, 70% were men and 71% had burn surgery. For each additional day of TTH, the mVSS score increased by 0.11 points (P ⩽ 0.001) per day in the first 21 days and 0.02 points per day thereafter (P = 0.004). The relationship remained stable in spite of TBSA or surgical intervention. Investigation of the effect of missing data revealed the primary model underestimated the strength of the association. An increase in TTH within 21 days of injury is associated with an increase in mVSS or reduced scar quality. The results confirm that efforts should be directed toward healing burn wounds as early as possible

Comparison of three methods of extravascular lung water volume measurement in patients after cardiac surgery

This research was supported by an Intensive Care Society (UK) Young Investigator Award and unrestricted research grants from Barts and The London NHS Trust and LiDCO, Lt

Does sleep education change sleep parameters? Comparing sleep education trials for middle school students in Australia and New Zealand

Background: Adolescents suffer daytime consequences from sleep loss. Sleep education programs have been developed in an attempt to increase sleep knowledge and/or duration. This paper presents data from three trials of the Aus-tralian Centre for Education in Sleep (ACES) program for adolescents.Methods: The ACES program was delivered to 69 Australian adolescents in a pre-post cross-sectional design (mean age 15.2) and 29 New Zealand adolescents in a randomised control trial (mean age 14.8 years). Assessments in sleep parame-ters were undertaken at baseline and post intervention.Results: Where sleep knowledge was evaluated (Australian trials), significant improvements were shown in all trials (All p <0.05). Where sleep duration was assessed (New Zealand trial) significant improvements were found in week and weekend sleep duration [F(1, 27)=4.26, p=0.04). Both, students and teachers found the program feasible, interesting, and educational.Conclusions: ACES sleep education programmes can improve both sleep knowledge and sleep duration in adolescents. Improving the programme so sleep knowledge attained equates to actual sleep behaviour change are areas for future direc-tion. Collectively these findings provide encouraging signs that adolescents can improve their sleep knowledge and behav-iour with sleep education which bodes well for sleep-related health and psycho-social issues

Photographic Assessment of Change in Trichotillomania: Psychometric Properties and Variables Influencing Interpretation

Although photographic assessment has been found to be reliable in assessing hair loss in Trichotillomania, the validity of this method is unclear, particularly for gauging progress in treatment. The current study evaluated the psychometric properties of photographic assessment of change in Trichotillomania. Photographs showing hair loss of adults with Trichotillomania were taken before and after participating in a clinical trial for the condition. Undergraduate college students (N = 211) rated treatment response according to the photos, and additional archival data on hair pulling severity and psychosocial health were retrieved from the clinical trial. Photographic assessment of change was found to possess fair reliability (ICC = 0.53), acceptable criterion validity (r = 0.51), good concurrent validity (r = 0.30–0.36), and excellent incremental validity (ΔR2 = 8.67, p \u3c 0.01). In addition, photographic measures were significantly correlated with change in quality of life (r = 0.42), and thus could be considered an index of the social validity of Trichotillomania treatment. Gender of the photo rater and pulling topography affected the criterion validity of photographic assessment (partial η2 = 0.05–0.11). Recommendations for improving photographic assessment and future directions for hair pulling research are discussed

Efficient FPT algorithms for (strict) compatibility of unrooted phylogenetic trees

In phylogenetics, a central problem is to infer the evolutionary relationships between a set of species $X$; these relationships are often depicted via a phylogenetic tree -- a tree having its leaves univocally labeled by elements of $X$ and without degree-2 nodes -- called the "species tree". One common approach for reconstructing a species tree consists in first constructing several phylogenetic trees from primary data (e.g. DNA sequences originating from some species in $X$), and then constructing a single phylogenetic tree maximizing the "concordance" with the input trees. The so-obtained tree is our estimation of the species tree and, when the input trees are defined on overlapping -- but not identical -- sets of labels, is called "supertree". In this paper, we focus on two problems that are central when combining phylogenetic trees into a supertree: the compatibility and the strict compatibility problems for unrooted phylogenetic trees. These problems are strongly related, respectively, to the notions of "containing as a minor" and "containing as a topological minor" in the graph community. Both problems are known to be fixed-parameter tractable in the number of input trees $k$, by using their expressibility in Monadic Second Order Logic and a reduction to graphs of bounded treewidth. Motivated by the fact that the dependency on $k$ of these algorithms is prohibitively large, we give the first explicit dynamic programming algorithms for solving these problems, both running in time $2^{O(k^2)} \cdot n$, where $n$ is the total size of the input.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figur

CAFFEINE INTAKE AMONG LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS PARTICIPATING IN SHIFT WORK

Objective: To investigate caffeine consumption among law enforcement officers during day shifts (DAY) and night shifts (NIGHT); to assess the types of caffeine-containing products and the frequency of product intake during DAY and NIGHT; to identify relationships between caffeine products and selected demographic characteristics; to identify relationships between caffeine intake and job-related characteristics.; and to identify associative relationships between caffeine intake and perceived concentration level, caffeine side effects, and tobacco use.  Participants: Police officers (PO) and Sheriff Department Deputies (SDD) in a rural region in Eastern North Carolina. Useable sample of 75 (N = 75).  Methods: Anonymous, self-administered caffeine food-frequency questionnaires (FFQ; three for DAY, three for NIGHT) and demographic questionnaire. Nonparametric tests were used. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare related samples. Spearman's correlation was used to determine relationships between two samples. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare two independent samples. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare more than two independent samples.  Results: Caffeine consumption was similar from DAY to NIGHT (225 + 227mg DAY; 252 + 232 mg NIGHT; p=0.891). Frequency of tea intake was greater during DAY (p=0.032). Greater caffeine consumption was found among (1) SDD versus PO; (2) expert officers (for night only); (3) lower concentration levels (for night only); (4) tobacco users; (5) those who experience caffeine side effects. In addition, younger officers consumed more energy drinks DAY and NIGHT.  Conclusions: It was found that certain job-related characteristics influence caffeine intake, but types of products used and frequency of intake tends to be the same regardless of shift or caffeine side effects. Energy drinks were found to be most popular among younger officers. Tobacco use and caffeine intake were found to have a correlate relationship. Caffeine may aid alertness, especially at night. Further  research is needed to assess other areas of shiftwork, more caffeine-containing products, especially energy drinks, and psychological or behavioral aspects of caffeine intake and product choice among shift workers. Limitations, gaps in the literature and implications are discussed.  M.S