The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on station rainfall and river level in the Fly River system, Papua New Guinea

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical rainfall on the large scale, but its signal is often obscured in individual station data, where effects are most directly felt at the local level. The Fly River system, Papua New Guinea, is one of the wettest regions on Earth and is at the heart of the MJO envelope. A 16 year time series of daily precipitation at 15 stations along the river system exhibits strong MJO modulation in rainfall. At each station, the difference in rainfall rate between active and suppressed MJO conditions is typically 40% of the station mean. The spread of rainfall between individual MJO events was small enough such that the rainfall distributions between wet and dry phases of the MJO were clearly separated at the catchment level. This implies that successful prediction of the large-scale MJO envelope will have a practical use for forecasting local rainfall. In the steep topography of the New Guinea Highlands, the mean and MJO signal in station precipitation is twice that in the satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42HQ product, emphasizing the need for ground-truthing satellite-based precipitation measurements. A clear MJO signal is also present in the river level, which peaks simultaneously with MJO precipitation input in its upper reaches but lags the precipitation by approximately 18 days on the flood plains

New Records for the Arctic Shrew, Sorex arcticus and the Newly Recognized Maritime Shrew, Sorex maritimensis

We report the first record for the Arctic Shrew (Sorex arcticus) in the state of Montana, USA. We also report range extensions for the closely related Maritime Shrew (Sorex maritimensis) in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada. These collections augment our limited knowledge of the ranges and habitat associations of these rarely collected shrews, and highlight the need for a careful assessment of the status of S. maritimensis in Canada

Ocean Rossby waves as a triggering mechanism for primary Madden-Julian events

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is sporadic, with episodes of cyclical activity interspersed with inactive periods. However, it remains unclear what may trigger a Madden–Julian (MJ) event which is not immediately preceded by any MJO activity: a ‘primary’ MJ event. A combination of case-studies and composite analysis is used to examine the extent to which the triggering of primary MJ events might occur in response to ocean dynamics. The case-studies show that such events can be triggered by the arrival of a downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby wave, which is shown to be associated with a deepening of the mixed layer and positive sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the order of 0.5–1 °C. These SST anomalies are not attributable to forcing by surface fluxes which are weak for the case-studies analysed. Furthermore, composite analysis suggests that such forcing is consistently important for triggering primary events. The relationship is much weaker for successive events, due to the many other triggering mechanisms which operate during periods of cyclical MJO activity. This oceanic feedback mechanism is a viable explanation for the sporadic and broadband nature of the MJO. Additionally, it provides hope for forecasting MJ events during periods of inactivity, when MJO forecasts generally exhibit low skill

A dynamical ocean feedback mechanism for the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Composite analysis is applied to study the dynamical ocean response to Madden-Julian (MJ) events, measured by anomalies in sea surface height from the merged TOPEX/Poseidon-European Remote Sensing satellite altimetry dataset. In each of the tropical ocean basins, significant equatorial waves are forced, which are shown to modulate the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2-0.3 degC in the absence of strong surface heat fluxes. In the Indian Ocean there is a clear dynamical response which may play a significant role in generating later MJ events. Surface westerly winds, associated with the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), force an eastward-propagating oceanic downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, which, on reaching the eastern boundary at Sumatra, forces reflected downwelling equatorial Rossby waves and coastal Kelvin waves. The coastal Kelvin waves propagate southwards towards northern Australia and northwards into the Bay of Bengal, and will be important for local physical, chemical and biological processes. The equatorial Rossby waves propagate westward across the Indian Ocean, arriving in the western Indian Ocean approximately 80-100 days after the initial Kelvin wave was generated. The arrival of these waves generates positive SST anomalies which leads to convection and may trigger the next-but-one MJ event, or amplify the low-frequency tail of the MJO. This constitutes a coupled feedback mechanism from the ocean dynamics onto the MJO, somewhat similar to the delayed oscillator mechanism for the El Nino Southern Oscillation

The prognostic value of systemic inflammation in patients undergoing surgery for colon cancer: comparison of composite ratios and cumulative scores

Introduction: The systemic inflammatory response has been proven to have a prognostic value. There are two methods of assessing the systemic inflammatory response composite ratios (R) and cumulative scores (S). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of ratios and scores in patients undergoing surgery for colon cancer. Methods: Patients were identified prospectively in a single surgical unit. Preoperative neutrophil (N), lymphocyte (L), monocyte (M) and platelet (P) counts, CRP (C) and albumin (A) levels were recorded. The relationship between composite ratios neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR), C-reactive protein albumin ratio (CAR) and the cumulative scores neutrophil– lymphocyte score (NLS), platelet–lymphocyte score (PLS), lymphocyte–monocyte score (LMS), neutrophil– platelet score (NPS), modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) and clinicopathological characteristics, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS), were examined. Results: A total of 801 patients were examined. When adjusted for tumour node metastasis (TNM) stage, NLR >5 (p < 0.001), NLS (p < 0.01), PLS (p < 0.001), LMR <2.4 (p < 0.001), LMS (p < 0.001), NPS (p < 0.001), CAR >0.22 (p < 0.001) and mGPS (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with CSS. In patients undergoing elective surgery (n = 689), the majority of the composite ratios/scores correlated with age (p < 0.01), BMI (p < 0.01), T stage (p < 0.01), venous invasion (p < 0.01) and peritoneal involvement (p < 0.01). When NPS (myeloid) and mGPS (liver) were directly compared, their relationship with CSS and OS was similar. Conclusions: Both composite ratios and cumulative scores had prognostic value, independent of TNM stage, in patients with colon cancer. However, cumulative scores, based on normal reference ranges, are simpler and more consistent for clinical use

Geons with spin and charge

We construct new geon-type black holes in D>3 dimensions for Einstein's theory coupled to gauge fields. A static nondegenerate vacuum black hole has a geon quotient provided the spatial section admits a suitable discrete isometry, and an antisymmetric tensor field of rank 2 or D-2 with a pure F^2 action can be included by an appropriate (and in most cases nontrivial) choice of the field strength bundle. We find rotating geons as quotients of the Myers-Perry(-AdS) solution when D is odd and not equal to 7. For other D we show that such rotating geons, if they exist at all, cannot be continuously deformed to zero angular momentum. With a negative cosmological constant, we construct geons with angular momenta on a torus at the infinity. As an example of a nonabelian gauge field, we show that the D=4 spherically symmetric SU(2) black hole admits a geon version with a trivial gauge bundle. Various generalisations, including both black-brane geons and Yang-Mills theories with Chern-Simons terms, are briefly discussed.Comment: 26 pages, 1 figure. LaTeX with amssymb, amsmath. (v2: References and a figure added.