Risks of Incorrect Use of Probabilities in Court and What to Do about Them

Probabilities play an important role in the proof of facts in trials. However, judges are not trained in probabilistic reasoning, which leads to errors. The author argues that more education in probability theory is not enough and a more radical solution might be needed, such as the introduction of “probability-judges” in evidentially complex cases. Such a solution would not conflict with the rule of law, the fundamental right to a fair trial, nor would it open the floodgates to other expert judges and mixed chambers

Risks of Incorrect Use of Probabilities in Court and What to Do about Them

Probabilities play an important role in the proof of facts in trials. However, judges are not trained in probabilistic reasoning, which leads to errors. The author argues that more education in probability theory is not enough and a more radical solution might be needed, such as the introduction of “probability-judges” in evidentially complex cases. Such a solution would not conflict with the rule of law, the fundamental right to a fair trial, nor would it open the floodgates to other expert judges and mixed chambers

Risks of Incorrect Use of Probabilities in Court and What to Do about Them

Probabilities play an important role in the proof of facts in trials. However, judges are not trained in probabilistic reasoning, which leads to errors. The author argues that more education in probability theory is not enough and a more radical solution might be needed, such as the introduction of “probability-judges” in evidentially complex cases. Such a solution would not conflict with the rule of law, the fundamental right to a fair trial, nor would it open the floodgates to other expert judges and mixed chambers

Risks of Incorrect Use of Probabilities in Court and What to Do about Them

Probabilities play an important role in the proof of facts in trials. However, judges are not trained in probabilistic reasoning, which leads to errors. The author argues that more education in probability theory is not enough and a more radical solution might be needed, such as the introduction of “probability-judges” in evidentially complex cases. Such a solution would not conflict with the rule of law, the fundamental right to a fair trial, nor would it open the floodgates to other expert judges and mixed chambers

Risks of Incorrect Use of Probabilities in Court and What to Do about Them

Probabilities play an important role in the proof of facts in trials. However, judges are not trained in probabilistic reasoning, which leads to errors. The author argues that more education in probability theory is not enough and a more radical solution might be needed, such as the introduction of “probability-judges” in evidentially complex cases. Such a solution would not conflict with the rule of law, the fundamental right to a fair trial, nor would it open the floodgates to other expert judges and mixed chambers

Editors' Review and Introduction:Models of Rational Proof in Criminal Law

Decisions concerning proof of facts in criminal law must be rational because of what is at stake, but the decision-making process must also be cognitively feasible because of cognitive limitations, and it must obey the relevant legal-procedural constraints. In this topic three approaches to rational reasoning about evidence in criminal law are compared in light of these demands: arguments, probabilities, and scenarios. This is done in six case studies in which different authors analyze a manslaughter case from different theoretical perspectives, plus four commentaries on these case studies. The aim of this topic is to obtain more insight into how the different approaches can be applied in a legal context. This will advance the discussion on rational reasoning about evidence in law and will contribute more widely to cognitive science on a number of topics, including the value of probabilistic accounts of cognition and the problem of dealing with cognitive biases in reasoning under uncertainty in practical contexts