Robustness of steady state and stochastic cyclicity in generalized coalescence-fragmentation models

Processes of coalescence and fragmentation are used to understand the time-evolution of the mass distribution of various systems and may result in a steady state or in stable deterministic or stochastic cycles. Motivated by applications in insurgency warfare we investigate coalescence-fragmentation systems. We begin with a simple model of size-biased coalescence accompanied by shattering into monomers. Depending on the parameters this model has an approximately power-law-distributed steady state or stochastic cycles of alternating gelation and shattering. We conduct stochastic simulations of this model and its generalizations to include different kernel types, accretion and erosion, and various distributions of non-shattering fragmentation. Our central aim is to explore the robustness of the steady state and gel-shatter cycles to these variations. We show that an approximate power-law steady state persists with the addition of accretion and erosion, and with partial rather than total shattering. However, broader distributions of fragment sizes typically vitiate both the power law steady state and gel-shatter cyclicity. This work clarifies features shown in coalescence/fragmentation model simulations and elucidates the relationship between the microscopic dynamics and observed phenomena in this widely applicable interdisciplinary model type.Comment: 29 pages, 13 Figure

ResearchFanshawe Magazine Issue 4

https://first.fanshawec.ca/researchfanshawemag/1003/thumbnail.jp

Stochastic gel-shatter cycles in coalescence-fragmentation models

We describe a new phenomenon in models of coalescence and fragmentation, that of gel-shatter cycles. These are dynamical, unforced, stochastic cycles in which slow, approximately deterministic coalescence up to and beyond gelation is followed by abrupt random shattering. We describe their appearance in simulations of stochastic models with multiplicative kernels for coalescence and spontaneous fragmentation into monomers (“shattering”). The regime in which such cycles occur is characterized by a cyclicity order parameter, and we provide a simple scaling argument which describes both this regime and those which border it

Effect of age and the APOE gene on metabolite concentrations in the posterior cingulate cortex.

Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) has provided valuable information about the neurochemical profile of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, its clinical utility has been limited in part by the lack of consistent information on how metabolite concentrations vary in the normal aging brain and in carriers of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4, an established risk gene for AD. We quantified metabolites within an 8cm3 voxel within the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC)/precuneus in 30 younger (20-40 years) and 151 cognitively healthy older individuals (60-85 years). All 1H-MRS scans were performed at 3T using the short-echo SPECIAL sequence and analyzed with LCModel. The effect of APOE was assessed in a sub-set of 130 volunteers. Older participants had significantly higher myo-inositol and creatine, and significantly lower glutathione and glutamate than younger participants. There was no significant effect of APOE or an interaction between APOE and age on the metabolite profile. Our data suggest that creatine, a commonly used reference metabolite in 1H-MRS studies, does not remain stable across adulthood within this region and therefore may not be a suitable reference in studies involving a broad age-range. Increases in creatine and myo-inositol may reflect age-related glial proliferation; decreases in glutamate and glutathione suggest a decline in synaptic and antioxidant efficiency. Our findings inform longitudinal clinical studies by characterizing age-related metabolite changes in a non-clinical sample

Malaria surveillance from both ends: concurrent detection of Plasmodium falciparum in saliva and excreta harvested from Anopheles mosquitoes

Background: Malaria is the most important vector-borne disease in the world. Epidemiological and ecological studies of malaria traditionally utilize detection of Plasmodium sporozoites in whole mosquitoes or salivary glands by microscopy or serological or molecular assays. However, these methods are labor-intensive, and can over- or underestimate mosquito transmission potential. To overcome these limitations, alternative sample types have been evaluated for the study of malaria. It was recently shown that Plasmodium could be detected in saliva expectorated on honey-soaked cards by Anopheles stephensi, providing a better estimate of transmission risk. We evaluated whether excretion of Plasmodium falciparum nucleic acid by An. stephensi correlates with expectoration of parasites in saliva, thus providing an additional sample type for estimating transmission potential. Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing cultured gametocytes, and excreta collected at different time points post-exposure. Saliva was collected on honey-soaked filter paper cards, and salivary glands were dissected and examined microscopically for sporozoites. Excreta and saliva samples were tested by real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR). Results: Plasmodium falciparum RNA was detected in mosquito excreta as early as four days after ingesting a bloodmeal containing gametocytes. Once sporogony (the development of sporozoites) occurred, P. falciparum RNA was detected concurrently in both excreta and saliva samples. In the majority of cases, no difference was observed between the Ct values obtained from matched excreta and saliva samples, suggesting that both samples provide equally sensitive results. A positive association was observed between the molecular detection of the parasites in both samples and the proportion of mosquitoes with sporozoites in their salivary glands from each container. No distinguishable parasites were observed when excreta samples were stained and microscopically analyzed. Conclusions: Mosquito saliva and excreta are easily collected and are promising for surveillance of malaria-causing parasites, especially in low transmission settings or in places where arboviruses co-circulate

Security of Storage in Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery

The Pembina Cardium CO2 Monitoring Pilot was used as a test site to determine the relative roles of trapping mechanisms. Two methods to assess this distribution are presented. A geochemical approach using empirical data from the site was used to determine the phase distribution of CO2 at a number of production wells that were sampled monthly during a two-year CO2 injection pilot. In addition, a simplified reservoir simulation was performed. Results indicate that significant amounts of CO2 are stored in the oil phase thus reducing the amount of CO2 available as a buoyant free phase and hence increasing storage security

Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels

Hydrological drought is a serious issue globally which is likely to be amplified by 21st century climate change. In the UK, the impacts of changes in river flow and groundwater drought severity in a future of climate change and higher water demand are potentially severe. Recent publication of a new nationally-consistent set of river flow and groundwater level projections based on state-of-the-art UKCP18 climate projections offers a unique opportunity to quantitatively assess future UK hydrological drought susceptibility. The dataset includes a transient, multi-model ensemble of hydrological projections driven by a single regional climate model (RCM) for 200 catchments and 54 boreholes spanning a period from 1961 to 2080. Assessment of a baseline period (1989–2018) shows that the RCM-driven projections adequately reproduce observed river flow and groundwater level regimes, improving our confidence in using these models for assessment of future drought. Across all hydrological models and most catchments, future low river flows are projected to decline consistently out to 2080. Drought durations, intensities and severities are all projected to increase in most UK catchments. However, the trajectory of low groundwater levels and groundwater drought characteristics diverge from those of river flows. Whilst groundwater levels at most boreholes are projected to decline (consistent with river flows), the majority of boreholes show <10 % reduction in transient low groundwater levels by 2080 and eight show moderate increases. Groundwater drought characteristics in the far future (2050–2079) are often similar to those of the baseline (1989–2018), and in some instances droughts are projected to be most prolonged and severe in the near future (2020–2049). A number of explanatory factors for this divergence are discussed. The sensitivity to seasonal changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is proposed as a principal driver of divergence because low river flows are more influenced by shorter-term rainfall deficits in the summer half-year, whilst groundwater drought appears to be offset somewhat by the wetter winter signal in the RCM projections. Our results have fundamental importance for water management, demonstrating a widespread increase in river flow drought severity and diminishing low flows that could have profound societal and environmental impacts unless mitigated. Furthermore, the divergence in projections of drought in river flows and groundwater levels brings into question the balance between surface and subsurface water resources. The projected contrast in fortunes of surface and subsurface water resources identified for the UK may be replicated in other parts of the world where climate projections suggest a shift towards drier summers and wetter winters

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they mak

Investigation of NRXN1 deletions: Clinical and molecular characterization

Deletions at 2p16.3 involving exons of NRXN1 are associated with susceptibility for autism and schizophrenia, and similar deletions have been identified in individuals with developmental delay and dysmorphic features. We have identified 34 probands with exonic NRXN1 deletions following referral for clinical microarray‐based comparative genomic hybridization. To more firmly establish the full phenotypic spectrum associated with exonic NRXN1 deletions, we report the clinical features of 27 individuals with NRXN1 deletions, who represent 23 of these 34 families. The frequency of exonic NRXN1 deletions among our postnatally diagnosed patients (0.11%) is significantly higher than the frequency among reported controls (0.02%; P  = 6.08 × 10 −7 ), supporting a role for these deletions in the development of abnormal phenotypes. Generally, most individuals with NRXN1 exonic deletions have developmental delay (particularly speech), abnormal behaviors, and mild dysmorphic features. In our cohort, autism spectrum disorders were diagnosed in 43% (10/23), and 16% (4/25) had epilepsy. The presence of NRXN1 deletions in normal parents and siblings suggests reduced penetrance and/or variable expressivity, which may be influenced by genetic, environmental, and/or stochastic factors. The pathogenicity of these deletions may also be affected by the location of the deletion within the gene. Counseling should appropriately represent this spectrum of possibilities when discussing recurrence risks or expectations for a child found to have a deletion in NRXN1 . © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97220/1/35780_ftp.pd

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world