12 research outputs found

    Due South: a first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Cape vulture occurrence

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    Multiple anthropogenic threats have caused vulture populations to decline globally, with serious ecological and socio-economic implications. The Cape vulture (Gyps coprotheres) has declined throughout its range in southern Africa, recently being listed as extinct as a breeding species in Namibia. It has been suggested that climate change might have contributed to the decline of Cape vultures in northern parts of the range. To provide a first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the occurrence of Cape vultures, a presence-only ecological niche modelling method (Maxent) was used to predict the spatial occurrence patterns of wild-caught vultures fitted with GPS tracking units in northern Namibia and northern South Africa, under current and future climatic conditions. The models showed high predictive power (AUC >0.868±0.006), with precipitation seasonality and other bioclimatic variables identified as the most important variables for predicting Cape vulture presence. Of the area estimated to be suitable for Cape vultures under current conditions, 28-55% was predicted to become unsuitable under future climate conditions, with a pole-ward shift in the mean centre of the range of 151-333 km and significant range loss from the former breeding range in north-central Namibia and the core breeding range in northern South Africa. Expansions of suitable conditions into areas where the species has been historically absent in the south of the range were also predicted. The coverage of predicted suitable areas by protected areas was predicted to decrease from 5.8-7.9% to 2.8-3.8%, suggesting that private land will become increasingly important for Cape vulture conservation

    The Hubble Constant

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    I review the current state of determinations of the Hubble constant, which gives the length scale of the Universe by relating the expansion velocity of objects to their distance. There are two broad categories of measurements. The first uses individual astrophysical objects which have some property that allows their intrinsic luminosity or size to be determined, or allows the determination of their distance by geometric means. The second category comprises the use of all-sky cosmic microwave background, or correlations between large samples of galaxies, to determine information about the geometry of the Universe and hence the Hubble constant, typically in a combination with other cosmological parameters. Many, but not all, object-based measurements give H0H_0 values of around 72-74km/s/Mpc , with typical errors of 2-3km/s/Mpc. This is in mild discrepancy with CMB-based measurements, in particular those from the Planck satellite, which give values of 67-68km/s/Mpc and typical errors of 1-2km/s/Mpc. The size of the remaining systematics indicate that accuracy rather than precision is the remaining problem in a good determination of the Hubble constant. Whether a discrepancy exists, and whether new physics is needed to resolve it, depends on details of the systematics of the object-based methods, and also on the assumptions about other cosmological parameters and which datasets are combined in the case of the all-sky methods.Comment: Extensively revised and updated since the 2007 version: accepted by Living Reviews in Relativity as a major (2014) update of LRR 10, 4, 200
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