A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity

California's Pacific bonito resource, its status and management

Pacific bonito, Sarda chiliensis, have become increasingly important to California's sport and commercial fishermen since the early 1960's, but are now showing signs of decline. Recent investigations have revealed much about the bonito's life history and population dynamics. These recent discoveries have been brought together into a document which will serve as a guide to future management actions. Document has 44 pages

Potential use of offshore marine structures in rebuilding an overfished rockfish species, bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis)

Although bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) was an economically important rockfish species along the west coast of North America, overfishing has reduced the stock to about 7.4% of its former unfished population. In 2003, using a manned research submersible, we conducted fish surveys around eight oil and gas platforms off southern California as part of an assessment of the potential value of these structures as fish habitat. From these surveys, we estimated that there was a minimum of 430,000 juvenile bocaccio at these eight structures. We determined this number to be about 20% of the average number of juvenile bocaccio that survive annually for the geographic range of the species. When these juveniles become adults, they will contribute about one percent (0.8%) of the additional amount of fish needed to rebuild the Pacific Coast population. By comparison, juvenile bocaccio recruitment to nearshore natural nursery grounds, as determined through regional scuba surveys, was low in the same year. This research demonstrates that a relatively small amount of artificial nursery habitat may be quite valuable in rebuilding an overfished species