The use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests

Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change.This work was supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES project (grant number CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), the ERA-NET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number 29183), and the project Boscos Sans per a una Societat Saludable funded by Obra Social la Caixa (https://obrasociallacaixa.org/). AMO and AA were supported by Spanish Government through the “Juan de la Cierva” fellowship program (IJCI-2016-30349 and IJCI-2016-30049, respectively). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant “Clarín” ACA17-02)

Life history, climate and biogeography interactively affect worldwide genetic diversity of plant and animal populations.

Understanding how biological and environmental factors interactively shape the global distribution of plant and animal genetic diversity is fundamental to biodiversity conservation. Genetic diversity measured in local populations (GDP) is correspondingly assumed representative for population fitness and eco-evolutionary dynamics. For 8356 populations across the globe, we report that plants systematically display much lower GDP than animals, and that life history traits shape GDP patterns both directly (animal longevity and size), and indirectly by mediating core-periphery patterns (animal fecundity and plant dispersal). Particularly in some plant groups, peripheral populations can sustain similar GDP as core populations, emphasizing their potential conservation value. We further find surprisingly weak support for general latitudinal GDP trends. Finally, contemporary rather than past climate contributes to the spatial distribution of GDP, suggesting that contemporary environmental changes affect global patterns of GDP. Our findings generate new perspectives for the conservation of genetic resources at worldwide and taxonomic-wide scales

Remote Sensing Analysis of Vegetation Recovery following Short-Interval Fires in Southern California Shrublands

Increased fire frequency has been shown to promote alien plant invasions in the western United States, resulting in persistent vegetation type change. Short interval fires are widely considered to be detrimental to reestablishment of shrub species in southern California chaparral, facilitating the invasion of exotic annuals and producing "type conversion". However, supporting evidence for type conversion has largely been at local, site scales and over short post-fire time scales. Type conversion has not been shown to be persistent or widespread in chaparral, and past range improvement studies present evidence that chaparral type conversion may be difficult and a relatively rare phenomenon across the landscape. With the aid of remote sensing data covering coastal southern California and a historical wildfire dataset, the effects of short interval fires (<8 years) on chaparral recovery were evaluated by comparing areas that burned twice to adjacent areas burned only once. Twelve pairs of once- and twice-burned areas were compared using normalized burn ratio (NBR) distributions. Correlations between measures of recovery and explanatory factors (fire history, climate and elevation) were analyzed by linear regression. Reduced vegetation cover was found in some lower elevation areas that were burned twice in short interval fires, where non-sprouting species are more common. However, extensive type conversion of chaparral to grassland was not evident in this study. Most variables, with the exception of elevation, were moderately or poorly correlated with differences in vegetation recovery