Mathematical model for pneumonia dynamics among children

The 2012 Southern Africa mathematical sciences association Conference (SAMSA 2012)26th -29th Nov 2012There are major advances which have been made to understand the epidemiology of infectious diseases. However, more than 2 million children in the developing countries still die from pneumonia each year. The eorts to promptly detect, eectively treat and control the spread of pneumonia is possible if its dynamics is understood. In this paper,we develop a mathematical model for pneumonia among children underve years of age. The model is analyzed using the theory of ordinary dierential equations and dynamical systems. We derive the basic reproduction number, R0, analyze the stability of equilibrium points and bifurcation analysis. The results of the analysis shows that there exist a locally stable disease free equilibrium point, Ef when R0 1.The analysis also shows that there is a possibility of a forward bifurcation

Facilitating high quality acute care in resource constrained environments: Perspectives of patients recovering from sepsis, their caregivers and healthcare workers in Uganda and Malawi

Sepsis is a major global health problem, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving patient care requires that healthcare providers understand patients’ priorities and provide quality care within the confines of the context they work. We report the perspectives of patients, caregivers and healthcare workers regarding care quality for patients admitted for sepsis to public hospitals in Uganda and Malawi. This qualitative descriptive study in two hospitals included face-to face semi-structured interviews with purposively selected patients recovering from sepsis, their caregivers and healthcare workers. In both Malawi and Uganda, sepsis care often occurred in resource-constrained environments which undermined healthcare workers’ capacity to deliver safe, consistent and accessible care. Constraints included limited space, strained; water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) amenities and practices, inadequate human and material resources and inadequate provision for basic needs including nutrition. Heavy workloads for healthcare workers strained relationships, led to poor communication and reduced engagement with patients and caregivers. These consequences were exacerbated by understaffing which affected handover and continuity of care. All groups (healthcare workers, patients and caregivers) reported delays in care due to long queues and lack of compliance with procedures for triage, treatment, stabilization and monitoring due to a lack of expertise, supervision and context-specific sepsis management guidelines. Quality sepsis care relies on effective severity-based triaging, rapid treatment of emergencies and individualised testing to confirm diagnosis and monitoring. Hospitals in resource-constrained systems contend with limitations in key resources, including for space, staff, expertise, equipment and medicines, in turn contributing to gaps in areas such as WASH and effective care delivery, as well as communication and other relational aspects of care. These limitations are the predominant challenges to achieving high quality care

Caregivers’ and nurses’ perceptions of the Smart Discharges Program for children with sepsis in Uganda: A qualitative study

Sepsis arises when the body’s response to an infection injures its own tissues and organs. Among children hospitalized with suspected sepsis in low-income country settings, mortality rates following discharge are high, similar to mortality rates in hospital. The Smart Discharges Program uses a mobile health (mHealth) platform to identify children at high risk of post-discharge mortality to receive enhanced post-discharge care. This study sought to explore the perceptions and experiences of the caregivers and nurses of children enrolled into the Smart Discharges Program and the program’s effect on post-discharge care. We conducted an exploratory qualitative study, which included in-person focus group discussions (FGDs) with 30 caregivers of pediatric patients enrolled in the Smart Discharges Program and individual, semi-structured interviews with eight Smart Discharges Program nurses. The study was carried out at four hospitals in Uganda in 2019. Following thematic analysis, three key themes pertaining to the Smart Discharges program were identified: (1) Facilitators and barriers to follow-up care after discharge; (2) Changed caregiver behavior following discharge; and (3) Increased involvement of male caregivers. Facilitators included telephone/text message reminders, positive nurse-patient relationship, and the complementary aspects of the program. Barriers included resource constraints and negative experiences during post-discharge care seeking. With regards to behavior, when provided with relevant and well-timed information, caregivers reported increased knowledge about post-discharge care and improvements in their ability to care for their child. Enrolment in the Smart Discharges Program also increased male caregiver involvement, increased provision of resources and improved communication within the family and with the healthcare system. The Smart Discharges approach is an impactful strategy to improve pediatric post-discharge care, and similar approaches should be considered to improve the hospital to home transition in similar low-income country settings

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: A protocol for an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: More than 50 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are not on course to meet the neonatal and under-five mortality target set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the year 2030. One important, yet neglected, aspect of child mortality rates is deaths occurring during the post-discharge period. For children living in resource-poor countries, the rate of post-discharge mortality within the first several months after discharge is often as high as the rates observed during the initial admission period. This has generally been observed within the context of acute illness and has been closely linked to underlying conditions such as malnutrition, HIV, and anemia. These post-discharge mortality rates tend to be underreported and present a major oversight in the efforts to reduce overall child mortality. This review will explore recurrent illness following discharge through determination of rates of, and risk factors for, pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor settings. Methods: Eligible studies will be retrieved using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases. Only studies with a post-discharge observation period of more than 7 days following discharge will be eligible for inclusion. Secondary outcomes will include post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, overall readmission rates, pooled estimates of risk factors (e.g. admission details vs discharge factors, clinical vs social factors), pooled post-discharge mortality Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and outcomes by disease subgroups (e.g. malnutrition, anemia, general admissions). A narrative description of the included studies will be synthesized to categorize commonly affected patient population categories and a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted to quantify overall post-discharge mortality rates at the 6-month time point. Discussion: Post-discharge mortality contributes to global child mortality rates with a greater burden of deaths occurring in resource-poor settings. Literature concentrated on child mortality published over the last decade has expanded to focus on the fatal outcomes of children post-discharge and associated risk factors. The results from this systematic review will inform current policy and interventions on the epidemiological burden of post-discharge mortality and morbidity following acute illness among children living in resource-poor settings

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness. Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975. Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I  = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I  = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I  = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I  = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity. Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: A protocol for an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background More than 50 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are not on course to meet the neonatal and under-five mortality target set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the year 2030. One important, yet neglected, aspect of child mortality rates is deaths occurring during the post-discharge period. For children living in resource-poor countries, the rate of post-discharge mortality within the first several months after discharge is often as high as the rates observed during the initial admission period. This has generally been observed within the context of acute illness and has been closely linked to underlying conditions such as malnutrition, HIV, and anemia. These post-discharge mortality rates tend to be underreported and present a major oversight in the efforts to reduce overall child mortality. This review will explore recurrent illness following discharge through determination of rates of, and risk factors for, pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor settings. Methods Eligible studies will be retrieved using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases. Only studies with a post-discharge observation period of more than 7 days following discharge will be eligible for inclusion. Secondary outcomes will include post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, overall readmission rates, pooled estimates of risk factors (e.g. admission details vs discharge factors, clinical vs social factors), pooled post-discharge mortality Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and outcomes by disease subgroups (e.g. malnutrition, anemia, general admissions). A narrative description of the included studies will be synthesized to categorize commonly affected patient population categories and a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted to quantify overall post-discharge mortality rates at the 6-month time point. Discussion Post-discharge mortality contributes to global child mortality rates with a greater burden of deaths occurring in resource-poor settings. Literature concentrated on child mortality published over the last decade has expanded to focus on the fatal outcomes of children post-discharge and associated risk factors. The results from this systematic review will inform current policy and interventions on the epidemiological burden of post-discharge mortality and morbidity following acute illness among children living in resource-poor settings. Systematic review registration PROSPERO Registration ID: CRD42022350975

Exploring healthcare providers' perspectives of the paediatric discharge process in Uganda: a qualitative exploratory study.

INTRODUCTION The burden of childhood mortality continues to be born largely by low-income and middle-income countries. The critical postdischarge period has been largely neglected despite evidence that mortality rates during this period can exceed inpatient mortality rates. However, there is a paucity of data on the paediatric discharge process from the perspective of the healthcare provider. Provider perspectives may be important in the development of an improved understanding of the barriers and facilitators to improving the transition from hospital to home. OBJECTIVES To explore healthcare providers' and facility administrators' perspectives of the paediatric discharge process with respect to: (1) current procedures, (2) barriers and challenges, (3) ideas for change, (4) facilitators for change and (5) the importance of discharge planning. DESIGN A qualitative exploratory approach using focus groups (14) and in-depth interviews (7). SETTING This study was conducted at seven hospitals providing paediatric care in Uganda. RESULTS Current discharge procedures are largely based on hospital-specific protocols or clinician opinion, as opposed to national guidelines. Some key barriers to an improved discharge process included caregiver resources and education, critical communication gaps, traditional practices, and a lack of human and physical resources. Teamwork and motivation to see improved paediatric transitions to home were identified as facilitators to implementing the ideas for change proposed by participants. The need for a standardised national policy guiding paediatric discharges, implemented through education at many levels and coupled with appropriate community referral and follow-up, was broadly perceived as essential to improving outcomes for children. CONCLUSIONS Although significant challenges and gaps were identified within the current health system, participants' ideas and the identified facilitators provide a significant basis from which change may occur. This work can facilitate the development of sustainable and effective interventions to improve postdischarge outcomes in Uganda and other similar settings

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

The sixth vital sign: HIV status assessment and severe illness triage in Uganda

Setting: Four in-patient health facilities in western Uganda. Objective: To determine the impact of an innovative multi-modal quality improvement program on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status assessment and the impact of HIV status on severe illness conditions and mortality. Design: This was a staggered, pre-post quasi-experimental study designed to assess a multi-modal intervention (collaborative improvement meetings, audit and feedback, clinical mentoring) for improving quality of care following formal training in the management of severe illness in low-income settings. Results: From August 2014 to May 2015, 5759 patients were hospitalized, of whom 2451 (42.6%) had their HIV status assessed; 395 (16.1%) were HIV-infected. HIV-infected patients were significantly more likely to meet criteria for shock (27.5% vs. 15.1%, risk ratio [RR] 1.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-1.9, P < 0.001) and severe respiratory distress (6.7% vs. 4.3%, RR 1.5, 95%CI 1.2-2.0, P < 0.001), and were significantly more likely to die in hospital (12.0% vs. 2.9%, RR 4.1, 95%CI 3.2-5.4, P < 0.001). There was no evidence of improved HIV status assessment during the intervention period (36.5% vs. 44.8%, +8.3%, 95%CI -8.3 to 24.8, P = 0.33). Conclusions: Hospitalized HIV-infected patients in western Uganda are at high risk for severe illness and death. Novel quality improvement strategies are needed to enhance hospital-based HIV testing in high-burden settings