Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Sylhet City Using ARIMA Model

In this study a seasonal ARIMA model was built using Box and Jenkins method to forecast long term rainfall in Sylhet. For this purpose rainfall data from 1980 to 2010 of Sylhet station were used to build and check the model. Rainfall data from 1980 to 2006 were used to develop the model while data from 2007 to 2010 were used to verify the prediction precision. Four basic chronological steps namely: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting were fitted out in developing the model.  Validity of the model was tested using standard graphical explanation of residuals given by Box and Jenkins. As a second step of validation, forecasted values of monthly rainfall were checked using actual data series. After completion of necessary checking and forecast observation, the ARIMA(0, 0, 1) (1,1, 1)12 was found to be the most effective to predict future precipitation with a 95% confidence interval. It is expected that this long term prediction will help decision makers in efficient scheduling of flood prediction, urban planning, rainwater harvesting and crop management. Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, ARIMA model, rainfall forecasting, Sylhet

Infall of gas as the formation mechanism of stars up to 20 times more massive than the Sun

Theory predicts and observations confirm that low-mass stars (like the Sun) in their early life grow by accreting gas from the surrounding material. But for stars ~ 10 times more massive than the Sun (~10 M_sun), the powerful stellar radiation is expected to inhibit accretion and thus limit the growth of their mass. Clearly, stars with masses >10 M_sun exist, so there must be a way for them to form. The problem may be solved by non-spherical accretion, which allows some of the stellar photons to escape along the symmetry axis where the density is lower. The recent detection of rotating disks and toroids around very young massive stars has lent support to the idea that high-mass (> 8 M_sun) stars could form in this way. Here we report observations of an ammonia line towards a high-mass star forming region. We conclude from the data that the gas is falling inwards towards a very young star of ~20 M_sun, in line with theoretical predictions of non-spherical accretion.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

General Gauge Mediation with Gauge Messengers

We generalize the General Gauge Mediation formalism to allow for the possibility of gauge messengers. Gauge messengers occur when charged matter fields of the susy-breaking sector have non-zero F-terms, which leads to tree-level, susy-breaking mass splittings in the gauge fields. A classic example is that SU(5) / SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) gauge fields could be gauge messengers. We give a completely general, model independent, current-algebra based analysis of gauge messenger mediation of susy-breaking to the visible sector. Characteristic aspects of gauge messengers include enhanced contributions to gaugino masses, (tachyonic) sfermion mass-squareds generated already at one loop, and also at two loops, and significant one-loop A-terms, already at the messenger scale.Comment: 79 pages, 5 figure

Type IIn supernovae at z ~ 2 from archival data

Supernovae have been confirmed to redshift z ~ 1.7 for type Ia (thermonuclear detonation of a white dwarf) and to z ~ 0.7 for type II (collapse of the core of the star). The subclass type IIn supernovae are luminous core-collapse explosions of massive stars and, unlike other types, are very bright in the ultraviolet, which should enable them to be found optically at redshifts z ~ 2 and higher. In addition, the interaction of the ejecta with circumstellar material creates strong, long-lived emission lines that allow spectroscopic confirmation of many events of this type at z ~ 2 for 3 - 5 years after explosion. Here we report three spectroscopically confirmed type IIn supernovae, at redshifts z = 0.808, 2.013 and 2.357, detected in archival data using a method designed to exploit these properties at z ~ 2. Type IIn supernovae directly probe the formation of massive stars at high redshift. The number found to date is consistent with the expectations of a locally measured stellar initial mass function, but not with an evolving initial mass function proposed to explain independent observations at low and high redshift.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, includes supplementary informatio

Alirocumab therapy in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease:analysis of the ODYSSEY DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA and DM-INSULIN studies

Background Individuals with diabetes often have high levels of atherogenic lipoproteins and cholesterol reflected by elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and LDL particle number (LDL-PN). The presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) increases the risk of future cardiovascular events. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, alirocumab, among individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), high LDL-C or non-HDL-C, and established ASCVD receiving maximally tolerated statin in ODYSSEY DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA (NCT02642159) and DM-INSULIN (NCT02585778). Methods In DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA, individuals with T2DM and mixed dyslipidemia (non-HDL-C ≥ 100 mg/dL; n = 413) were randomized to open-label alirocumab 75 mg every 2 weeks (Q2W) or usual care (UC) for 24 weeks, with UC options selected before stratified randomization. In DM-INSULIN, insulin-treated individuals with T2DM (LDL-C ≥ 70 mg/dL; n = 441) were randomized in a double-blind fashion to alirocumab 75 mg Q2W or placebo for 24 weeks. Study participants also had a glycated hemoglobin < 9% (DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA) or < 10% (DM-INSULIN). Alirocumab dose was increased to 150 mg Q2W at week 12 if week 8 LDL-C was ≥ 70 mg/dL (DM-INSULIN) or non-HDL-C was ≥ 100 mg/dL (DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA). Lipid reductions and safety were assessed in patients with ASCVD from these studies. Results This analysis included 142 DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA and 177 DM-INSULIN participants with ASCVD, including 95.1% and 86.4% with coronary heart disease, and 32.4% and 49.7% with microvascular diabetes complications, respectively. At week 24, alirocumab significantly reduced LDL-C, non-HDL-C, ApoB, and LDL-PN from baseline versus control. This translated into a greater proportion of individuals achieving non-HDL-C < 100 mg/dL (64.6% alirocumab/23.8% UC [DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA]; 65.4% alirocumab/14.9% placebo [DM-INSULIN]) and ApoB < 80 mg/dL (75.1% alirocumab/35.4% UC and 76.8% alirocumab/24.8% placebo, respectively) versus control at week 24 (all P < 0.0001). In pooling these studies, 66.4% (alirocumab) and 67.0% (control) of individuals reported treatment-emergent adverse events. The adverse event pattern was similar with alirocumab versus controls. Conclusions Among individuals with T2DM and ASCVD who had high non-HDL-C/LDL-C levels despite maximally tolerated statin, alirocumab significantly reduced atherogenic cholesterol and LDL-PN versus control. Alirocumab was generally well tolerated

Aspects of Non-minimal Gauge Mediation

A large class of non-minimal gauge mediation models, such as (semi-)direct gauge mediation, predict a hierarchy between the masses of the supersymmetric standard model gauginos and those of scalar particles. We perform a comprehensive study of these non-minimal gauge mediation models, including mass calculations in semi-direct gauge mediation, to illustrate these features, and discuss the phenomenology of the models. We point out that the cosmological gravitino problem places stringent constraints on mass splittings, when the Bino is the NLSP. However, the GUT relation of the gaugino masses is broken unlike the case of minimal gauge mediation, and an NLSP other than the Bino (especially the gluino NLSP) becomes possible, relaxing the cosmological constraints. We also discuss the collider signals of the models.Comment: 56 pages, 8 figures; v2:minor corrections, references added; v3:minor correction

IFNAR1-Signalling Obstructs ICOS-mediated Humoral Immunity during Non-lethal Blood-Stage Plasmodium Infection

Funding: This work was funded by a Career Development Fellowship (1028634) and a project grant (GRNT1028641) awarded to AHa by the Australian National Health & Medical Research Council (NHMRC). IS was supported by The University of Queensland Centennial and IPRS Scholarships. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Internet-based medical education: a realist review of what works, for whom and in what circumstances

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0

Gadolinium oxide nanocrystal nonvolatile memory with HfO2/Al2O3 nanostructure tunneling layers

In this study, Gd2O3 nanocrystal (Gd2O3-NC) memories with nanostructure tunneling layers are fabricated to examine their performance. A higher programming speed for Gd2O3-NC memories with nanostructure tunneling layers is obtained when compared with that of memories using a single tunneling layer. A longer data retention (< 15% charge loss after 104 s) is also observed. This is due to the increased physical thickness of the nanostructure tunneling layer. The activation energy of charge loss at different temperatures is estimated. The higher activation energy value (0.13 to 0.17 eV) observed at the initial charge loss stage is attributed to the thermionic emission mechanism, while the lower one (0.07 to 0.08 eV) observed at the later charge loss stage is attributed to the direct tunneling mechanism. Gd2O3-NC memories with nanostructure tunneling layers can be operated without degradation over several operation cycles. Such NC structures could potentially be used in future nonvolatile memory applications

The lightest scalar in theories with broken supersymmetry

We study the scalar mass matrix of general supersymmetric theories with local gauge symmetries, and derive an absolute upper bound on the lightest scalar mass. This bound can be saturated by suitably tuning the superpotential, and its positivity therefore represents a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of metastable vacua. It is derived by looking at the subspace of all those directions in field space for which an arbitrary supersymmetric mass term is not allowed and scalar masses are controlled by supersymmetry-breaking splitting effects. This subspace includes not only the direction of supersymmetry breaking, but also the directions of gauge symmetry breaking and the lightest scalar is in general a linear combination of fields spanning all these directions. We present explicit results for the simplest case of theories with a single local gauge symmetry. For renormalizable gauge theories, the lightest scalar is a combination of the Goldstino partners and its square mass is always positive. For more general non-linear sigma models, on the other hand, the lightest scalar can involve also the Goldstone partner and its square mass is not always positive.Comment: 30 pages, 3 figures; v2 introduction expanded, paragraph added in section 5 and two references adde