Physiological-social score (PMEWS) vs. CURB-65 to triage pandemic influenza: a comparative validation study using community-acquired pneumonia as a proxy

BACKGROUND: An influenza pandemic may increase Emergency Department attendance 7-fold. In the absence of a validated "flu score" to assess severity and assist triage decisions from primary into secondary care, current UK draft management recommendations have suggested the use of CURB-65 and chest X-ray as a proxy. We developed the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS) to track and triage flu patients, taking into account physiological and social factors and without requiring laboratory or radiology services. METHODS: Validation of the PMEWS score against an unselected group of patients presenting and admitted to an urban UK teaching hospital with community acquired pneumonia. Comparison of PMEWS performance against CURB-65 for three outcome measures: need for admission, admission to high dependency or intensive care, and inpatient mortality using area under ROC curve (AUROC) and the Hanley-McNeil method of comparison. RESULTS: PMEWS was a better predictor of need for admission (AUROC 0.944) and need of higher level of care (AUROC 0.83) compared with CURB-65 (AUROCs 0.881 and 0.640 respectively) but was not as good a predictor of subsequent inpatient mortality (AUROC 0.663). CONCLUSION: Although further validation against other disease datasets as a proxy for pandemic flu is required, we show that PMEWS is rapidly applicable for triage of large numbers of flu patients to self-care, hospital admission or HDU/ICU care. It is scalable to reflect changing admission thresholds that will occur during a pandemic

Interpreting changes in measles genotype: the contribution of chance, migration and vaccine coverage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In some populations, complete shifts in the genotype of the strain of measles circulating in the population have been observed, with given genotypes being replaced by new genotypes. Studies have postulated that such shifts may be attributable to differences between the fitness of the new and the old genotypes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of measles, simulating the effects of different levels of migration, vaccination coverage and importation of new genotypes on patterns in the persistence and replacement of indigenous genotypes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analyses illustrate that complete replacement in the genotype of the strain circulating in populations may occur because of chance. This occurred in >50% of model simulations, for levels of vaccination coverage and numbers of imported cases per year which are compatible with those observed in several Western European populations (>80% and >3 per million per year respectively) and for the given assumptions in the model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The interpretation of genotypic data, which are increasingly being collected in surveillance programmes, needs to take account of the underlying vaccination coverage and the level of the importation rate of measles cases into the population.</p

The effect of prior statin use on 30-day mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors ("statins") may have beneficial effects for patients at risk for some types of infections. We examined the effect of prior outpatient use of statins on mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of, had a chest x-ray consistent with, and had a discharge ICD-9 diagnosis of pneumonia. Subjects were excluded if they were "comfort measures only" or transferred from another acute care hospital. Subjects were considered to be on a medication if they were taking it at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Data was abstracted on 787 subjects at the two hospitals. Mortality was 9.2% at 30-days and 13.6% at 90-days. At presentation 52% of subjects were low risk, 34% were moderate risk, and 14% were high risk based on the pneumonia severity index. In the multivariable regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders including a propensity score, the use of statins at presentation (odds ratio 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.14–0.92) was associated with decreased 30-day mortality. DISCUSSION: Prior outpatient statin use was associated with decreased mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia despite their use being associated with comorbid illnesses likely to contribute to increased mortality. Confirmatory studies are needed, as well as research to determine the mechanism(s) of this protective effect

BCG Revaccination Does Not Protect Against Leprosy in the Brazilian Amazon: A Cluster Randomised Trial

BCG is a vaccine developed and used to protect against tuberculosis, but it can also protect against leprosy. In Brazil, children receive BCG at birth, and since 1996 a trial has been conducted to find out if a second dose of BCG administered to schoolchildren gives additional protection against tuberculosis. We use this trial to find out if such vaccination protects against leprosy. The trial was conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, involving almost 100,000 children aged 7–14 years who had received neonatal BCG. Half of them received a second dose of BCG at school, and the other half did not. We followed the children for 6 years and observed that there were as many new cases of leprosy in the vaccinated children as in the unvaccinated children. Therefore, we concluded that a second dose of BCG given at school age in the Brazilian Amazon offers no additional protection against leprosy

Second malignancies in the context of lenalidomide treatment: an analysis of 2732 myeloma patients enrolled to the Myeloma XI trial.

We have carried out the largest randomised trial to date of newly diagnosed myeloma patients, in which lenalidomide has been used as an induction and maintenance treatment option and here report its impact on second primary malignancy (SPM) incidence and pathology. After review, 104 SPMs were confirmed in 96 of 2732 trial patients. The cumulative incidence of SPM was 0.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-1.0%), 2.3% (95% CI 1.6-2.7%) and 3.8% (95% CI 2.9-4.6%) at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. Patients receiving maintenance lenalidomide had a significantly higher SPM incidence overall (P=0.011). Age is a risk factor with the highest SPM incidence observed in transplant non-eligible patients aged >74 years receiving lenalidomide maintenance. The 3-year cumulative incidence in this group was 17.3% (95% CI 8.2-26.4%), compared with 6.5% (95% CI 0.2-12.9%) in observation only patients (P=0.049). There was a low overall incidence of haematological SPM (0.5%). The higher SPM incidence in patients receiving lenalidomide maintenance therapy, especially in advanced age, warrants ongoing monitoring although the benefit on survival is likely to outweigh risk

The impact of prior outpatient ACE inhibitor use on 30-day mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors may have beneficial effects for patients at risk for some types of infections. We examined the effect of prior outpatient use of ACE inhibitors on mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of, had a chest x-ray consistent with, and had a discharge ICD-9 diagnosis of pneumonia. Subjects were excluded if they were "comfort measures only" or transferred from another acute care hospital. Subjects were considered to be on a medication if they were taking it at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Data was abstracted on 787 subjects at the two hospitals. Mortality was 9.2% at 30-days and 13.6% at 90-days. At presentation 52% of subjects were low risk, 34% were moderate risk, and 14% were high risk. In the multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, the use of ACE inhibitors at presentation (odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.22–0.89) was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Prior outpatient use of an ACE inhibitor was associated with decreased mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia despite their use being associated with comorbid illnesses likely to contribute to increased mortality. Confirmatory studies are needed, as well as research to determine the mechanism(s) of this protective effect

Understanding and meeting the needs of those using growth hormone injection devices

BACKGROUND: Recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) is used to treat: growth hormone deficiency in children and adults; children born small for gestational age; Turner's syndrome; and chronic renal failure. r-hGH is administered by daily subcutaneous injection and may be given using a number of different administration devices. The aim of this survey was, firstly, to identify which attributes of an r-hGH administration device are considered most important to physicians, teenage patients, parents of young children requiring GH and nurses who have experience of r-hGH administration, and, secondly, to determine how they rate existing devices in each of these key attributes. METHODS: The opinions of 67 individuals with experience in r-hGH administration were captured in discussion sessions. Parents, physicians and nurses were asked to rate 19 device attributes by completing a questionnaire, and to rank four different r-hGH administration devices (including a conceptual electronic device) in order of preference. RESULTS: Reliability, ease of use, lack of pain during injection, safety in use, storage, and number of steps in preparation before use, during use and after were considered to be the five most desirable attributes of an r-hGH administration device. An electronic device was preferred to an automatic, multi-dose injection device, a needle-free injection device or a manual, ready-to-use, disposable injection device. CONCLUSION: In the opinion of physicians, nurses and parents using r-hGH injection devices, an ideal device must combine reliability with simplicity, while delivering treatment with minimal pain. An electronic device, which combines many of the most useful features of existing devices with novel functions, was the preferred option for r-hGH administration

Inflammatory parameters predict etiologic patterns but do not allow for individual prediction of etiology in patients with CAP – Results from the German competence network CAPNETZ

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation of inflammatory markers procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and leukocyte count (WBC) with microbiological etiology of CAP.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We enrolled 1337 patients (62 ± 18 y, 45% f) with proven CAP. Extensive microbiological workup was performed. In all patients PCT, CRP, WBC and CRB-65 score were determined. Patients were classified according to microbial diagnosis and CRB-65 score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In patients with typical bacterial CAP, levels of PCT, CRP and WBC were significantly higher compared to CAP of atypical or viral etiology. There were no significant differences in PCT, CRP and WBC in patients with atypical or viral etiology of CAP. In contrast to CRP and WBC, PCT markedly increased with severity of CAP as measured by CRB-65 score (p < 0.0001). In ROC analysis for discrimination of patients with CRB-65 scores > 1, AUC for PCT was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.71), which was higher compared to CRP and WBC (p < 0.0001). CRB-65, PCT, CRP and WBC were higher (p < 0.0001) in hospitalised patients in comparison to outpatients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PCT, CRP and WBC are highest in typical bacterial etiology in CAP but do not allow individual prediction of etiology. In contrast to CRP and WBC, PCT is useful in severity assessment of CAP.</p

How to handle mortality when investigating length of hospital stay and time to clinical stability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital length of stay (LOS) and time for a patient to reach clinical stability (TCS) have increasingly become important outcomes when investigating ways in which to combat Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAP). Difficulties arise when deciding how to handle in-hospital mortality. Ad-hoc approaches that are commonly used to handle time to event outcomes with mortality can give disparate results and provide conflicting conclusions based on the same data. To ensure compatibility among studies investigating these outcomes, this type of data should be handled in a consistent and appropriate fashion.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using both simulated data and data from the international Community Acquired Pneumonia Organization (CAPO) database, we evaluate two ad-hoc approaches for handling mortality when estimating the probability of hospital discharge and clinical stability: 1) restricting analysis to those patients who lived, and 2) assigning individuals who die the "worst" outcome (right-censoring them at the longest recorded LOS or TCS). Estimated probability distributions based on these approaches are compared with right-censoring the individuals who died at time of death (the complement of the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator), and treating death as a competing risk (the cumulative incidence estimator). Tests for differences in probability distributions based on the four methods are also contrasted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The two ad-hoc approaches give different estimates of the probability of discharge and clinical stability. Analysis restricted to patients who survived is conceptually problematic, as estimation is conditioned on events that happen <it>at a future time</it>. Estimation based on assigning those patients who died the worst outcome (longest LOS and TCS) coincides with the complement of the KM estimator based on the subdistribution hazard, which has been previously shown to be equivalent to the cumulative incidence estimator. However, in either case the time to in-hospital mortality is ignored, preventing simultaneous assessment of patient mortality in addition to LOS and/or TCS. The power to detect differences in underlying hazards of discharge between patient populations differs for test statistics based on the four approaches, and depends on the underlying hazard ratio of mortality between the patient groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Treating death as a competing risk gives estimators which address the clinical questions of interest, and allows for simultaneous modelling of both in-hospital mortality and TCS / LOS. This article advocates treating mortality as a competing risk when investigating other time related outcomes.</p