Modelling phosphorus fluxes in Loweswater

1. This is the final report to the Loweswater Care Project (in support of the Catchment Restoration Fund for England) ECRC-ENSIS Project 298, 'Loweswater 12-13'. The study was concerned with the spatial and temporal concentrations of sediment phosphorus (P) in the lake and the use of P measurements from the water column and inflow and outflow samples to derive a simple mass balance model for P in the lake. 2. A review of published and unpublished literature on Loweswater highlighted trends in water chemistry since the mid-eighteenth century. Land use and farming practises have changed over the past 200 years which have led to increased nutrient loading to the lake with significant increases occurring in the mid part of the last century. Agricultural intensification is likely to be a significant cause of the problem as well as inadequate septic tank management. Local management efforts, led by the Loweswater Care Project, has sought to reduce the primary sources of nutrients reaching the lake, but total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake remain higher than desired. 3. Temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) profiling confirmed that the site stratified in summer with major changes in DO occurring below a depth of 8 m. The deeper waters were almost entirely anoxic. During stratification the maximum TP value was recorded at the lake bottom. This is a clear indication that P is being released from the lake bed during summer stratification. 4. Analysis of the stream water from the Dub Beck inflow (data for 2013), shows that P influx remains high enough to explain the elevated lake water P concentrations, despite considerable efforts to reduce catchment P sources. 5. Analysis of the water column P profiles shows that P release from the sediment is only a minor contribution to the P load. While the sediment core data reveals a substantial pool of P in the sediment very little of this should be released each year to the water column. In 2013 it is estimated that more than 90% of the P came from the catchment and only ~10% from the sediment. 6. As with all modelling exercises there are uncertainties inherent in the approach. In this case the model output is based on a single year of input data for the inflow P flux calculations and it would be preferable to have a longer data series to inform the modelling. Inflow fluxes are highly dependent on flow conditions and here, in the absence of flow data from Dub Beck, we used data from a nearby stream. Further, the monthly sampling has resulted in most samples being taken in low flow conditions, thus missing potential storm flow conditions. Finally, stream input information is restricted to Dub Beck, and contributions from the other stream is unknown. 7. Nevertheless, the results from the modelling are clear and on that basis we conclude that the priority is for P loading to the lake to be reduced by better catchment management and that lake manipulation is not warranted. Integrated catchment management supported by modelling together with local stakeholder engagement should provide the most effective means of improving the condition of the lake

Using joint species distribution modelling to predict distributions of seafloor taxa and identify vulnerable marine ecosystems in New Zealand waters

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024.Effective ecosystem-based management of bottom-contacting fisheries requires understanding of how disturbances from fishing affect seafloor fauna over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatial predictions of abundance for 67 taxa were developed, using an extensive dataset of faunal abundances collected using a towed camera system and spatially explicit predictor variables including bottom-trawl fishing effort, using a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM). The model fit metrics varied by taxon: the mean tenfold cross-validated AUC score was 0.70 \ub1 0.1 (standard deviation) for presence–absence and an R2 of 0.11 \ub1 0.1 (standard deviation) for abundance models. Spatial predictions of probability of occurrence and abundance (individuals per km2) varied by taxon, but there were key areas of overlap, with highest predicted taxon richness in areas of the continental shelf break and slope. The resulting joint predictions represent significant advances on previous predictions because they are of abundance, allow the exploration of co-occurrence patterns and provide credible estimates of taxon richness (including for rare species that are often not included in more commonly used single-species distribution modelling). Habitat-forming taxa considered to be Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem (VME) indicators (those taxa that are physically or functionally fragile to anthropogenic impacts) were identified in the dataset. Spatial estimates of likely VME distribution (as well as associated estimates of uncertainty) were predicted for the study area. Identifying areas most likely to represent a VME (rather than simply VME indicator taxa) provides much needed quantitative estimates of vulnerable habitats, and facilitates an evidence-based approach to managing potential impacts of bottom-trawling

A Bispecific Antibody Based Assay Shows Potential for Detecting Tuberculosis in Resource Constrained Laboratory Settings

The re-emergence of tuberculosis (TB) as a global public health threat highlights the necessity of rapid, simple and inexpensive point-of-care detection of the disease. Early diagnosis of TB is vital not only for preventing the spread of the disease but also for timely initiation of treatment. The later in turn will reduce the possible emergence of multi-drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Lipoarabinomannan (LAM) is an important non-protein antigen of the bacterial cell wall, which is found to be present in different body fluids of infected patients including blood, urine and sputum. We have developed a bispecific monoclonal antibody with predetermined specificities towards the LAM antigen and a reporter molecule horseradish peroxidase (HRPO). The developed antibody was subsequently used to design a simple low cost immunoswab based assay to detect LAM antigen. The limit of detection for spiked synthetic LAM was found to be 5.0 ng/ml (bovine urine), 0.5 ng/ml (rabbit serum) and 0.005 ng/ml (saline) and that for bacterial LAM from M. tuberculosis H37Rv was found to be 0.5 ng/ml (rabbit serum). The assay was evaluated with 21 stored clinical serum samples (14 were positive and 7 were negative in terms of anti-LAM titer). In addition, all 14 positive samples were culture positive. The assay showed 100% specificity and 64% sensitivity (95% confidence interval). In addition to good specificity, the end point could be read visually within two hours of sample collection. The reported assay might be used as a rapid tool for detecting TB in resource constrained laboratory settings

Primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic and slowly progressive cholestatic liver disease of autoimmune etiology characterized by injury of the intrahepatic bile ducts that may eventually lead to liver failure. Affected individuals are usually in their fifth to seventh decades of life at time of diagnosis, and 90% are women. Annual incidence is estimated between 0.7 and 49 cases per million-population and prevalence between 6.7 and 940 cases per million-population (depending on age and sex). The majority of patients are asymptomatic at diagnosis, however, some patients present with symptoms of fatigue and/or pruritus. Patients may even present with ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and/or esophageal variceal hemorrhage. PBC is associated with other autoimmune diseases such as Sjogren's syndrome, scleroderma, Raynaud's phenomenon and CREST syndrome and is regarded as an organ specific autoimmune disease. Genetic susceptibility as a predisposing factor for PBC has been suggested. Environmental factors may have potential causative role (infection, chemicals, smoking). Diagnosis is based on a combination of clinical features, abnormal liver biochemical pattern in a cholestatic picture persisting for more than six months and presence of detectable antimitochondrial antibodies (AMA) in serum. All AMA negative patients with cholestatic liver disease should be carefully evaluated with cholangiography and liver biopsy. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the only currently known medication that can slow the disease progression. Patients, particularly those who start UDCA treatment at early-stage disease and who respond in terms of improvement of the liver biochemistry, have a good prognosis. Liver transplantation is usually an option for patients with liver failure and the outcome is 70% survival at 7 years. Recently, animal models have been discovered that may provide a new insight into the pathogenesis of this disease and facilitate appreciation for novel treatment in PBC

S. C. R. No. 3 by Mr. Bennion

Description of S. C. R. No. 3, by Mr. Bennion