Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Progress in the management and outcome of small-cell lung cancer in a French region from 1981 to 1994

Recent analyses of series of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients included in clinical trials have shown improved survival over time, but it has been impossible to determine whether this was due to selection biases, stage migration, or true therapeutic improvement. To determine if there has been a true improvement of survival over time, we reviewed the medical records of all consecutive patients diagnosed with SCLC between 1981 and 1994 in the Bas-Rhin in France. Among the 787 patients (median age 63), there was no significant period effect for sex, age, or stage. Staging work-ups became increasingly thorough (significant period effect). The mean number of investigations and of tumour sites detected correlated significantly. The chemotherapy rate increased (from 76.4% in 1981–1983 to 91.7% in 1993–1994, P = 10−5) and mediastinal irradiation decreased (to roughly 25% of patients after 1983). Median survival time increased for the overall population from 6.6 months in 1981–1983 to 11.3 months in 1993–1994 (P = 10−5), for patients with limited disease (LD) from 9.2 (P = 0.002) months to 14.0 months, and for those with extensive (ED) disease from 3.5 months to 9.6 months (P = 10−5). Significant independent prognostic factors were disease extent, clinical trial participation, period, type of chemotherapy, and mediastinal irradiation in LD. Survival time has truly improved as ‘state of the art' management of SCLC has changed. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co