Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Sylhet City Using ARIMA Model

In this study a seasonal ARIMA model was built using Box and Jenkins method to forecast long term rainfall in Sylhet. For this purpose rainfall data from 1980 to 2010 of Sylhet station were used to build and check the model. Rainfall data from 1980 to 2006 were used to develop the model while data from 2007 to 2010 were used to verify the prediction precision. Four basic chronological steps namely: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting were fitted out in developing the model.  Validity of the model was tested using standard graphical explanation of residuals given by Box and Jenkins. As a second step of validation, forecasted values of monthly rainfall were checked using actual data series. After completion of necessary checking and forecast observation, the ARIMA(0, 0, 1) (1,1, 1)12 was found to be the most effective to predict future precipitation with a 95% confidence interval. It is expected that this long term prediction will help decision makers in efficient scheduling of flood prediction, urban planning, rainwater harvesting and crop management. Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, ARIMA model, rainfall forecasting, Sylhet

Environmental bacteriophages active on biofilms and planktonic forms of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae: Potential relevance in cholera epidemiology.

METHODS: Phages isolated from environmental waters in Bangladesh were tested for their host specificity towards V. cholerae O1 and O139, and the ability to disperse V. cholerae biofilms formed in the laboratory. Representative phages were further characterized by electron microscopy and whole genome sequencing. Selected phages were then introduced in various combinations to biofilms of toxigenic V. cholerae added to samples of river water, and the dispersion of biofilms as well as the growth kinetics of V. cholerae and the phages were monitored. RESULTS: A phage cocktail composed of three different phages isolated from surface waters in Bangladesh and designated as JSF7, JSF4, and JSF3 could significantly influence the distribution and concentration of the active planktonic form and biofilm associated form of toxigenic V. cholerae in water. While JSF7 showed a biofilm degrading activity and dispersed cells from both V. cholerae O1 and O139 derived biofilms thus increasing the concentration of planktonic V. cholerae in water, JSF4 and JSF3 showed strong bactericidal activity against V. cholerae O1 and O139 respectively. A mixture of all three phages could effectively reduce both biofilm-associated and planktonic V. cholerae in river water microcosms. SIGNIFICANCE: Besides potential applicability in phage-mediated control of cholera, our results have relevance in appreciating possible intricate role of diverse environmental phages in the epidemiology of the disease, since both biofilms and phages influence the prevalence and infectivity of V. cholerae in a variety of ways

Quorum Regulated Resistance of Vibrio cholerae against Environmental Bacteriophages.

Predation by bacteriophages can significantly influence the population structure of bacterial communities. Vibrio cholerae the causative agent of cholera epidemics interacts with numerous phages in the aquatic ecosystem, and in the intestine of cholera patients. Seasonal epidemics of cholera reportedly collapse due to predation of the pathogen by phages. However, it is not clear how sufficient number of the bacteria survive to seed the environment in the subsequent epidemic season. We found that bacterial cell density-dependent gene expression termed "quorum sensing" which is regulated by signal molecules called autoinducers (AIs) can protect V. cholerae against predatory phages. V. cholerae mutant strains carrying inactivated AI synthase genes were significantly more susceptible to multiple phages compared to the parent bacteria. Likewise when mixed cultures of phage and bacteria were supplemented with exogenous autoinducers CAI-1 or AI-2 produced by recombinant strains carrying cloned AI synthase genes, increased survival of V. cholerae and a decrease in phage titer was observed. Mutational analyses suggested that the observed effects of autoinducers are mediated in part through the quorum sensing-dependent production of haemaglutinin protease, and partly through downregulation of phage receptors. These results have implication in developing strategies for phage mediated control of cholera

Variability and traits association in maize (Zea mays L.) for yield and yield associated characters

Maize (Zea mays L.) is world’s third most important cereal crop that has a remarkable productive potential in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, maize is the second most important cereal crop in terms of production. The selection for high yield with desirable traits depends on the genetic variability in the existing germplasm. Successful breeding programs need adequate genetic variation for selection and improvement based on necessity. The research was conducted in the experimental farm of the Department of Genetics and Plant Breeding, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh during November 2015 to April 2016. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of 20 maize genotypes based on their yield and yield contributing characters to determine existing genetic variability. The extrapolated ANOVA for different yield contributing parameters showed a high degree of variation among the genotypes used. Correlation co-efficient analysis revealed that yield plant−1 (g) had positive and significant association with ear girth (cm), 1000-kernel weight (g), yield plot−1 (g), grain yield (tha−1) with dry weight. The genotypes differed significantly for most of the phenotypic traits. The phenotypic co-efficient of variation (PCV) was higher than genotypic co-efficient of variation (GCV) in all traits studied indicating that those traits were interacted with the environment. The traits under study expressed wide heritability estimates (26.81% to 99.95%). Among the characters, highest heritability was recorded for 1000-kernel weight (g). High heritability along with high genetic advance was noticed for 1000-kernel weight (g), yield plot−1 (g)and grain yield (tha−1). Considering different desirable traits P-12, Popcorn, V90-1, 988 were observed as superior genotypes. The data would be useful for proper identification and selection of appropriate parents in breeding programs to develop new maize varieties

Lower cerebrospinal fluid/plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) ratios and placental FGF21 production in gestational diabetes

Objectives: Circulating Fibroblast Growth Factor 21 (FGF21) levels are increased in insulin resistant states such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). In addition, GDM is associated with serious maternal and fetal complications. We sought to study human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and corresponding circulating FGF21 levels in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and in age and BMI matched control subjects. We also assessed FGF21 secretion from GDM and control human placental explants. Design: CSF and corresponding plasma FGF21 levels of 24 women were measured by ELISA [12 GDM (age: 26–47 years, BMI: 24.3–36.3 kg/m2) and 12 controls (age: 22–40 years, BMI: 30.1–37.0 kg/m2)]. FGF21 levels in conditioned media were secretion from GDM and control human placental explants were also measured by ELISA. Results: Glucose, HOMA-IR and circulating NEFA levels were significantly higher in women with GDM compared to control subjects. Plasma FGF21 levels were significantly higher in women with GDM compared to control subjects [234.3 (150.2–352.7) vs. 115.5 (60.5–188.7) pg/ml; P<0.05]. However, there was no significant difference in CSF FGF21 levels in women with GDM compared to control subjects. Interestingly, CSF/Plasma FGF21 ratio was significantly lower in women with GDM compared to control subjects [0.4 (0.3–0.6) vs. 0.8 (0.5–1.6); P<0.05]. FGF21 secretion into conditioned media was significantly lower in human placental explants from women with GDM compared to control subjects (P<0.05). Conclusions: The central actions of FGF21 in GDM subjects maybe pivotal in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance in GDM subjects. The significance of FGF21 produced by the placenta remains uncharted and maybe crucial in our understanding of the patho-physiology of GDM and its associated maternal and fetal complications. Future research should seek to elucidate these points

The effects of acute serotonin challenge on executive planning in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), their first-degree relatives, and healthy controls

© 2020 Springer-Verlag. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s00213-020-05597-7.Rationale: OCD is characterized by executive function impairment and by clinical responsivity to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Executive planning deficits constitute a candidate endophenotype for OCD. It is not known whether this endophenotype is responsive to acute serotonin manipulation. Objective: To investigate the effects of acute SSRI administration on executive function in patients with OCD, first-degree relatives of patients with OCD and healthy controls. Methods: A randomized double-blind crossover study assessed the effects of single dose escitalopram (20mg) and placebo on executive planning in 24 patients with OCD, 13 clinically unaffected first-degree relatives of patients with OCD and 28 healthy controls. Performance on a Tower of London task measuring executive planning was assessed 4 hours after oral administration of the pharmacological challenge / placebo, and compared across and within groups using a mixed model ANOVA. Results: On the outcome measure of interest, i.e. the mean number of choices to obtain the correct solution, there was a marginally significant effect of group (F(2, 59)=3.1; p=0.052), with patients (Least square [LS] mean: 1.43; Standard Error [SE]: 0.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-1.55) and their relatives (LS mean: 1.46; SE: 0.08; 95% CI, 1.30-1.62) performing worse than matched healthy controls (LS mean: 1.26; SE: 0.05; 95% CI, 1.15-1.37) on placebo. There was a trend towards a significant group x treatment interaction (F(2, 58)=2.8, p=0.069), with post hoc tests showing (i) patients (p=0.009; LS mean difference: 0.23; SE: 0.08) and relatives (p=0.03; LS mean difference: 0.22; SE: 0.10) were more impaired compared to controls and (ii) escitalopram was associated with improved executive planning in patients with OCD (p=0.013; LS mean difference: 0.1; SE: 0.04), but not other groups (both p>0.1; controls: LS mean difference: -0.03; SE: 0.04; relatives: LS mean difference: 0.02; SE: 0.05). Conclusion: Our findings are consistent with a view that there is impaired executive planning in OCD, and that this constitutes a behavioral endophenotype. In patients with OCD, but not in relatives, acute SSRI administration ameliorated this deficit. Further investigation is needed to understand common and differential involvement of neurochemical systems in patients with OCD and their relatives.Peer reviewe

Progesterone Receptor Activates Msx2 Expression by Downregulating TNAP/Akp2 and Activating the Bmp Pathway in EpH4 Mouse Mammary Epithelial Cells

Previously we demonstrated that EpH4 mouse mammary epithelial cells induced the homeobox transcription factor Msx2 either when transfected with the progesterone receptor (PR) or when treated with Bmp2/4. Msx2 upregulation was unaffected by Wnt inhibitors s-FRP or Dkk1, but was inhibited by the Bmp antagonist Noggin. We therefore hypothesized that PR signaling to Msx2 acts through the Bmp receptor pathway. Herein, we confirm that transcripts for Alk2/ActR1A, a non-canonical BmpR Type I, are upregulated in mammary epithelial cells overexpressing PR (EpH4-PR). Increased phosphorylation of Smads 1,5, 8, known substrates for Alk2 and other BmpR Type I proteins, was observed as was their translocation to the nucleus in EpH4-PR cells. Analysis also showed that Tissue Non-Specific Alkaline Phosphatase (TNAP/Akp2) was also found to be downregulated in EpH4-PR cells. When an Akp2 promoter-reporter construct containing a ½PRE site was transfected into EpH4-PR cells, its expression was downregulated. Moreover, siRNA mediated knockdown of Akp2 increased both Alk2 and Msx2 expression. Collectively these data suggest that PR inhibition of Akp2 results in increased Alk2 activity, increased phosphorylation of Smads 1,5,8, and ultimately upregulation of Msx2. These studies imply that re-activation of the Akp2 gene could be helpful in downregulating aberrant Msx2 expression in PR+ breast cancers

Azimuthal anisotropy in Au+Au collisions at sqrtsNN = 200 GeV

The results from the STAR Collaboration on directed flow (v_1), elliptic flow (v_2), and the fourth harmonic (v_4) in the anisotropic azimuthal distribution of particles from Au+Au collisions at sqrtsNN = 200 GeV are summarized and compared with results from other experiments and theoretical models. Results for identified particles are presented and fit with a Blast Wave model. Different anisotropic flow analysis methods are compared and nonflow effects are extracted from the data. For v_2, scaling with the number of constituent quarks and parton coalescence is discussed. For v_4, scaling with v_2^2 and quark coalescence is discussed.Comment: 26 pages. As accepted by Phys. Rev. C. Text rearranged, figures modified, but data the same. However, in Fig. 35 the hydro calculations are corrected in this version. The data tables are available at http://www.star.bnl.gov/central/publications/ by searching for "flow" and then this pape

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur