Active learning and optimal climate policy

This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature. We find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research, far more than the current level, in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change. This helps the decision maker make improved decisions. The level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations. As the uncertainty about climate change is smaller, active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax. The greater the risk, the larger is the effect of learning. The method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable, for instance, the precision at which we observe GDP, unemployment, or the quality of education

Mutational signatures in esophageal adenocarcinoma define etiologically distinct subgroups with therapeutic relevance

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has a poor outcome, and targeted therapy trials have thus far been disappointing owing to a lack of robust stratification methods. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) analysis of 129 cases demonstrated that this is a heterogeneous cancer dominated by copy number alterations with frequent large-scale rearrangements. Co-amplification of receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs) and/or downstream mitogenic activation is almost ubiquitous; thus tailored combination RTK inhibitor (RTKi) therapy might be required, as we demonstrate in vitro. However, mutational signatures showed three distinct molecular subtypes with potential therapeutic relevance, which we verified in an independent cohort (n = 87): (i) enrichment for BRCA signature with prevalent defects in the homologous recombination pathway; (ii) dominant T>G mutational pattern associated with a high mutational load and neoantigen burden; and (iii) C>A/T mutational pattern with evidence of an aging imprint. These subtypes could be ascertained using a clinically applicable sequencing strategy (low coverage) as a basis for therapy selection

Risk factors for moderate and severe persistent pain in patients undergoing total knee and hip arthroplasty : a prospective predictive study

Persistent post-surgical pain (PPSP) is a major clinical problem with significant individual, social and health care costs. The aim of this study was to examine the joint role of demographic, clinical and psychological risk factors in the development of moderate and severe PPSP after Total Knee and Hip Arthroplasty (TKA and THA, respectively). This was a prospective study wherein a consecutive sample of 92 patients were assessed 24 hours before (T1), 48 hours after (T2) and 4-6 months (T3) after surgery. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of moderate and severe levels of PPSP. Four to six months after TKA and THA, 54 patients (58.7%) reported none or mild pain (Numerical Rating Scale: NRS 3). In the final multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analyses, illness representations concerning the condition leading to surgery (osteoarthritis), such as a chronic timeline perception of the disease, emerged as a significant predictor of PPSP. Additionally, post-surgical anxiety also showed a predictive role in the development of PPSP. Pre-surgical pain was the most significant clinical predictive factor and, as expected, undergoing TKA was associated with greater odds of PPSP development than THA. The findings on PPSP predictors after major joint arthroplasties can guide clinical practice in terms of considering cognitive and emotional factors, together with clinical factors, in planning acute pain management before and after surgery.This work was supported by a Project grant (PTDC/SAU-NEU/108557/2008) and by a PhD grant (SFRH/BD/36368/2007) from the Portuguese Foundation of Science and Technology, COMPETE and FEDER. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Aging syndrome genes and premature coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: Vascular disease is a feature of aging, and coronary vascular events are a major source of morbidity and mortality in rare premature aging syndromes. One such syndrome is caused by mutations in the lamin A/C (LMNA) gene, which also has been implicated in familial insulin resistance. A second gene related to premature aging in man and in murine models is the KLOTHO gene, a hypomorphic variant of which (KL-VS) is significantly more common in the first-degree relatives of patients with premature coronary artery disease (CAD). We evaluated whether common variants at the LMNA or KLOTHO genes are associated with rigorously defined premature CAD. METHODS: We identified 295 patients presenting with premature acute coronary syndromes confirmed by angiography. A control group of 145 patients with no evidence of CAD was recruited from outpatient referral clinics. Comprehensive haplotyping of the entire LMNA gene, including the promoter and untranslated regions, was performed using a combination of TaqMan(® )probes and direct sequencing of 14 haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The KL-VS variant of the KLOTHO gene was typed using restriction digest of a PCR amplicon. RESULTS: Two SNPs that were not in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium were excluded from analysis. We observed no significant differences in allele, genotype or haplotype frequencies at the LMNA or KLOTHO loci between the two groups. In addition, there was no evidence of excess homozygosity at the LMNA locus. CONCLUSION: Our data do not support the hypothesis that premature CAD is associated with common variants in the progeroid syndrome genes LMNA and KLOTHO

Surveillance of FAP: a prospective blinded comparison of capsule endoscopy and other GI imaging to detect small bowel polyps

Background: Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is a hereditary disorder characterized by polyposis along the gastrointestinal tract. Information on adenoma status below the duodenum has previously been restricted due to its inaccessibility in vivo. Ca

Do community medicine residency trainees learn through journal club? An experience from a developing country

BACKGROUND: Journal clubs are an internationally recognized teaching tool in many postgraduate medical education fields. In developing countries lack of funds for current print materials may have limited journal club use. But with advancing information technology trainees in developing countries increasingly have more access to high quality journals online. However, we are aware of no studies describing journal club existence and effectiveness in postgraduate medical training in Pakistan. Also we have found no published effectiveness studies of this teaching modality in Community Medicine (Public Health) in any country. This study evaluated the effectiveness of Community Medicine (Public Health) Resident Journal Club (CMR-JC) in Aga Khan University, Pakistan using international criteria for successful journal clubs (2 years continuous existence and more than 50% attendance) and examining resident and alumni satisfaction. METHODS: Journal club effectiveness criteria were searched using electronic search databases. Departmental records were reviewed from September1999–September 2005. Ninety percent of residents and alumni of Community Medicine Residency Programme participated voluntarily in a confidential survey. RESULTS: The CMR-JC was regularly conducted. More than 95% of residents attended. (Total residents in the CMR-Programme: 32). Twenty-seven out of 29 current residents/alumni responded to the anonymous questionnaire. Acquisition of critical appraisal skills (23 respondents) and keeping up with current literature (18 respondents) were the two most important objectives achieved. Respondents recommended improved faculty participation and incorporating a structured checklist for article review. CONCLUSION: CMR-JC fulfils criteria for effective journal clubs. Residents and alumni agree CMR-JC meets its objectives. Incorporating suggested recommendations will further improve standards. The journal club learning modality should be included in residency training programs in developing countries. Effective use of online resources to support journal clubs is demonstrated as a successful alternative to excessive expenditure for obtaining print journals. Those trying to start or improve journal clubs can benefit from our experience

Social Expectations Bias Decision-Making in Uncertain Inter-Personal Situations

Understanding the role that social cues have on interpersonal choice, and their susceptibility to contextual effects, is of core importance to models of social decision-making. Language, on the other hand, is one of the main means of communication during social interactions in our culture. The present experiments tested whether positive and negative linguistic descriptions of alleged partners in a modified Ultimatum Game biased decisions made to the same set of offers, and whether the contextual uncertainty of the game modulated this biasing effect. The results showed that in an uncertain context, the same offers were accepted with higher probability when they were preceded by positive rather than by negative valenced trait-words. Participants also accepted fair offers with higher probability than unfair offers, but this effect did not interact with the valence of the social descriptive words. In addition, the speed of the decision was affected by valence: acceptance choices were faster when they followed a positive adjective, whereas rejection responses were faster after a negative-valenced word. However, these effects were highly reduced when the uncertainty was eliminated from the game. This suggests that positive and negative relevant social information can bias decisions made to the same pieces of evidence during interpersonal interactions, but that this mainly takes place when the uncertainty associated with the choices is high

Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Outcome in Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Electrocardiography (ECG) is the most widely used initial screening test for the assessment of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, traditional ECG criteria based only on voltage to detect LVH have limited clinical utility for the detection of LVH because of their poor sensitivity. METHODS: This prospective observational study was undertaken to compare the prognostic significance of commonly used ECG criteria for LVH, namely Sokolow-Lyon voltage (SV) or voltage-duration product (SP) and Cornell voltage (CV) or voltage-duration product (CP) criteria, and to investigate the association between echocardiographic LV mass index (LVMI) and ECG-LVH criteria in ESRD patients, who consecutively started maintenance hemodialysis (HD) between January 2006 and December 2008. RESULTS: A total of 317 patients, who underwent both ECG and echocardiography, were included. Compared to SV and CV criteria, SP and CP criteria, respectively, correlated more closely with LVMI. In addition, CP criteria provided the highest positive predictive value for echocardiographic LVH. The 5-year cardiovascular survival rates were significantly lower in patients with ECG-LVH by each criterion. In multivariate analyses, echocardiographic LVH [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 11.71; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.57-87.18; P = 0.016] and ECG-LVH by SP (HR: 3.43; 95% CI: 1.32-8.92; P = 0.011) and CP (HR: 3.07; 95% CI: 1.16-8.11; P = 0.024) criteria, but not SV and CV criteria, were significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The product of QRS voltage and duration is helpful in identifying the presence of LVH and predicting cardiovascular mortality in incident HD patients