Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Clusters versus Affinity-Based Approaches in F. tularensis Whole Genome Search of CTL Epitopes

Deciphering the cellular immunome of a bacterial pathogen is challenging due to the enormous number of putative peptidic determinants. State-of-the-art prediction methods developed in recent years enable to significantly reduce the number of peptides to be screened, yet the number of remaining candidates for experimental evaluation is still in the range of ten-thousands, even for a limited coverage of MHC alleles. We have recently established a resource-efficient approach for down selection of candidates and enrichment of true positives, based on selection of predicted MHC binders located in high density “hotspots" of putative epitopes. This cluster-based approach was applied to an unbiased, whole genome search of Francisella tularensis CTL epitopes and was shown to yield a 17–25 fold higher level of responders as compared to randomly selected predicted epitopes tested in Kb/Db C57BL/6 mice. In the present study, we further evaluate the cluster-based approach (down to a lower density range) and compare this approach to the classical affinity-based approach by testing putative CTL epitopes with predicted IC50 values of <10 nM. We demonstrate that while the percent of responders achieved by both approaches is similar, the profile of responders is different, and the predicted binding affinity of most responders in the cluster-based approach is relatively low (geometric mean of 170 nM), rendering the two approaches complimentary. The cluster-based approach is further validated in BALB/c F. tularensis immunized mice belonging to another allelic restriction (Kd/Dd) group. To date, the cluster-based approach yielded over 200 novel F. tularensis peptides eliciting a cellular response, all were verified as MHC class I binders, thereby substantially increasing the F. tularensis dataset of known CTL epitopes. The generality and power of the high density cluster-based approach suggest that it can be a valuable tool for identification of novel CTLs in proteomes of other bacterial pathogens

School's Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children.

School children are core groups in the transmission of many common infectious diseases, and are likely to play a key role in the spatial dispersal of disease across multiple scales. However, there is currently little detailed information about the spatial movements of this epidemiologically important age group. To address this knowledge gap, we collaborated with eight secondary schools to conduct a survey of movement patterns of school pupils in primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom. We found evidence of a significant change in behaviour between term time and holidays, with term time weekdays characterised by predominately local movements, and holidays seeing much broader variation in travel patterns. Studies that use mathematical models to examine epidemic transmission and control often use adult commuting data as a proxy for population movements. We show that while these data share some features with the movement patterns reported by school children, there are some crucial differences between the movements of children and adult commuters during both term-time and holidays.AJK was supported by the Medical Research Council (fellowship MR/K021524/1, http://www.mrc.ac.uk/) and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov/about/staff/pages​/epidemiology-population.aspx#rapidd). AJKC was supported by the Alborada Trust (http://www.alboradatrust.com/). KTDE was supported by the NIHR (CDF-2011-04- 019, http://www.nihr.ac.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final version. It was first published by PLOS at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128070#

Surveillance of Gram-negative bacteria: impact of variation in current European laboratory reporting practice on apparent multidrug resistance prevalence in paediatric bloodstream isolates.

This study evaluates whether estimated multidrug resistance (MDR) levels are dependent on the design of the surveillance system when using routine microbiological data. We used antimicrobial resistance data from the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children (ARPEC) project. The MDR status of bloodstream isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was defined using European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)-endorsed standardised algorithms (non-susceptible to at least one agent in three or more antibiotic classes). Assessment of MDR status was based on specified combinations of antibiotic classes reportable as part of routine surveillance activities. The agreement between MDR status and resistance to specific pathogen-antibiotic class combinations (PACCs) was assessed. Based on all available antibiotic susceptibility testing, the proportion of MDR isolates was 31% for E. coli, 30% for K. pneumoniae and 28% for P. aeruginosa isolates. These proportions fell to 9, 14 and 25%, respectively, when based only on classes collected by current ECDC surveillance methods. Resistance percentages for specific PACCs were lower compared with MDR percentages, except for P. aeruginosa. Accordingly, MDR detection based on these had low sensitivity for E. coli (2-41%) and K. pneumoniae (21-85%). Estimates of MDR percentages for Gram-negative bacteria are strongly influenced by the antibiotic classes reported. When a complete set of results requested by the algorithm is not available, inclusion of classes frequently tested as part of routine clinical care greatly improves the detection of MDR. Resistance to individual PACCs should not be considered reflective of MDR percentages in Enterobacteriaceae

Whole-Genome Immunoinformatic Analysis of F. tularensis: Predicted CTL Epitopes Clustered in Hotspots Are Prone to Elicit a T-Cell Response

The cellular arm of the immune response plays a central role in the defense against intracellular pathogens, such as F. tularensis. To date, whole genome immunoinformatic analyses were limited either to relatively small genomes (e.g. viral) or to preselected subsets of proteins in complex pathogens. Here we present, for the first time, an unbiased bacterial global immunoinformatic screen of the 1740 proteins of F. tularensis subs. holarctica (LVS), aiming at identification of immunogenic peptides eliciting a CTL response. The very large number of predicted MHC class I binders (about 100,000, IC50 of 1000 nM or less) required the design of a strategy for further down selection of CTL candidates. The approach developed focused on mapping clusters rich in overlapping predicted epitopes, and ranking these “hotspot” regions according to the density of putative binding epitopes. Limited by the experimental load, we selected to screen a library of 1240 putative MHC binders derived from 104 top-ranking highly dense clusters. Peptides were tested for their ability to stimulate IFNγ secretion from splenocytes isolated from LVS vaccinated C57BL/6 mice. The majority of the clusters contained one or more CTL responder peptides and altogether 127 novel epitopes were identified, of which 82 are non-redundant. Accordingly, the level of success in identification of positive CTL responders was 17–25 fold higher than that found for a randomly selected library of 500 predicted MHC binders (IC50 of 500 nM or less). Most proteins (ca. 2/3) harboring the highly dense hotspots are membrane-associated. The approach for enrichment of true positive CTL epitopes described in this study, which allowed for over 50% increase in the dataset of known T-cell epitopes of F. tularensis, could be applied in immunoinformatic analyses of many other complex pathogen genomes

Francisella tularensis Uses Cholesterol and Clathrin-Based Endocytic Mechanisms to Invade Hepatocytes

Francisella tularensis are highly infectious microbes that cause the disease tularemia. Although much of the bacterial burden is carried in non-phagocytic cells, the strategies these pathogens use to invade these cells remains elusive. To examine these mechanisms we developed two in vitro Francisella-based infection models that recapitulate the non-phagocytic cell infections seen in livers of infected mice. Using these models we found that Francisella novicida exploit clathrin and cholesterol dependent mechanisms to gain entry into hepatocytes. We also found that the clathrin accessory proteins AP-2 and Eps15 co-localized with invading Francisella novicida as well as the Francisella Live Vaccine Strain (LVS) during hepatocyte infections. Interestingly, caveolin, a protein involved in the invasion of Francisella in phagocytic cells, was not required for non-phagocytic cell infections. These results demonstrate a novel endocytic mechanism adopted by Francisella and highlight the divergence in strategies these pathogens utilize between non-phagocytic and phagocytic cell invasion

The effects of thermal capsulorrhaphy of medial parapatellar capsule on patellar lateral displacement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effectiveness of thermal shrinkage on the medial parapatellar capsule for treating recurrent patellar dislocation is controversial. One of reasons why it is still controversial is that the effectiveness is still qualitatively measured. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively determine the immediate effectiveness of the medial parapatellar capsule shrinkage as in clinical setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nine cadaveric knees were used to collect lateral displacement data before and after medial shrinkage or open surgery. The force and displacement were recorded while a physician pressed the patella from the medial side to mimic the physical exam used in clinic. Ten healthy subjects were used to test the feasibility of the technique on patients and establish normal range of lateral displacement of the patella under a medial force. The force applied, the resulting displacement and the ratio of force over displacement were compared among four data groups (normal knees, cadaveric knees before medial shrinkage, after shrinkage and after open surgery).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Displacements of the cadaveric knees both before and after thermal modification were similar to normal subjects, and the applied forces were significantly higher. No significant differences were found between before and after thermal modification groups. After open surgery, displacements were reduced significantly while applied forces were significantly higher.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>No immediate difference was found after thermal shrinkage of the medial parapatellar capsule. Open surgery immediately improved of the lateral stiffness of the knee capsule.</p

Influenza A Gradual and Epochal Evolution: Insights from Simple Models

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a “continuous antigenic drift” scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level