Population-Wide Emergence of Antiviral Resistance during Pandemic Influenza

Background: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. Methodology/Principal Findings: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections

Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?

Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission

Epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalization in adults, Toronto, 2007/8

The purpose of this investigation was to identify when diagnostic testing and empirical antiviral therapy should be considered for adult patients requiring hospitalization during influenza seasons. During the 2007/8 influenza season, six acute care hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area participated in active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalization. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory or cardiac illness, or with febrile illness without clear non-respiratory etiology. Predictors of influenza were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis and likelihoods of influenza infection in various patient groups were calculated. Two hundred and eighty of 3,917 patients were found to have influenza. Thirty-five percent of patients with influenza presented with a triage temperature ≥38.0°C, 80% had respiratory symptoms in the emergency department, and 76% were ≥65 years old. Multivariable analysis revealed a triage temperature ≥38.0°C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3–4.1), the presence of respiratory symptoms (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.4), admission diagnosis of respiratory infection (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3–2.4), admission diagnosis of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma or respiratory failure (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6–3.4), and admission in peak influenza weeks (OR 4.2; 95% CI 3.1–5.7) as independent predictors of influenza. The likelihood of influenza exceeded 15% in patients with respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma if the triage temperature was ≥38.0°C or if they were admitted in the peak weeks during the influenza season. During influenza season, diagnostic testing and empiric antiviral therapy should be considered in patients requiring hospitalization if respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma are suspected and if either the triage temperature is ≥38.0°C or admission is during the weeks of peak influenza activity

Protective Effect of Ginseng Polysaccharides on Influenza Viral Infection

Ginseng polysaccharide has been known to have multiple immunomodulatory effects. In this study, we investigated whether Panax ginseng polysaccharide (GP) would have a preventive effect on influenza infection. Administration of mice with GP prior to infection was found to confer a survival benefit against infection with H1N1 (A/PR/8/34) and H3N2 (A/Philippines/82) influenza viruses. Mice infected with the 2009 H1N1 virus suspended in GP solution showed moderately enhanced survival rates and lower levels of lung viral titers and the inflammatory cytokine (IL-6). Daily treatment of vaccinated mice with GP improved their survival against heterosubtypic lethal challenge. This study demonstrates the first evidence that GP can be used as a remedy against influenza viral infection

Illumination of Parainfluenza Virus Infection and Transmission in Living Animals Reveals a Tissue-Specific Dichotomy

The parainfluenza viruses (PIVs) are highly contagious respiratory paramyxoviruses and a leading cause of lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease. Since no vaccines or antivirals exist, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only means of control for these pathogens. Here we used bioluminescence imaging to visualize the spatial and temporal progression of murine PIV1 (Sendai virus) infection in living mice after intranasal inoculation or exposure by contact. A non-attenuated luciferase reporter virus (rSeV-luc(M-F*)) that expressed high levels of luciferase yet was phenotypically similar to wild-type Sendai virus in vitro and in vivo was generated to allow visualization. After direct intranasal inoculation, we unexpectedly observed that the upper respiratory tract (URT) and trachea supported robust infection under conditions that result in little infection or pathology in the lungs including a low inoculum of virus, an attenuated virus, and strains of mice genetically resistant to lung infection. The high permissivity of the URT and trachea to infection resulted in 100% transmission to naïve contact recipients, even after low-dose (70 PFU) inoculation of genetically resistant BALB/c donor mice. The timing of transmission was consistent with the timing of high viral titers in the URT and trachea of donor animals but was independent of the levels of infection in the lungs of donors. The data therefore reveals a disconnect between transmissibility, which is associated with infection in the URT, and pathogenesis, which arises from infection in the lungs and the immune response. Natural infection after transmission was universally robust in the URT and trachea yet limited in the lungs, inducing protective immunity without weight loss even in genetically susceptible 129/SvJ mice. Overall, these results reveal a dichotomy between PIV infection in the URT and trachea versus the lungs and define a new model for studies of pathogenesis, development of live virus vaccines, and testing of antiviral therapies