Commentary: Ensuring health statistics in conflict are evidence-based

The author argues that measuring mortality in conflict settings is fraught with limitations which mostly result in under-estimation of mortality. Some recent publications on this subject have been based upon convenient surveillance processes, or even press reports. The author calls for vigilance against such studies and argues that war related surveillance-based mortality estimates should include measures of sensitivity and representativeness

Global comparison of warring groups in 2002–2007: fatalities from targeting civilians vs. fighting battles

Background Warring groups that compete to dominate a civilian population confront contending behavioral options: target civilians or battle the enemy. We aimed to describe degrees to which combatant groups concentrated lethal behavior into intentionally targeting civilians as opposed to engaging in battle with opponents in contemporary armed conflict. Methodology/Principal Findings We identified all 226 formally organized state and non-state groups (i.e. actors) that engaged in lethal armed conflict during 2002–2007: 43 state and 183 non-state. We summed civilians killed by an actor's intentional targeting with civilians and combatants killed in battles in which the actor was involved for total fatalities associated with each actor, indicating overall scale of armed conflict. We used a Civilian Targeting Index (CTI), defined as the proportion of total fatalities caused by intentional targeting of civilians, to measure the concentration of lethal behavior into civilian targeting. We report actor-specific findings and four significant trends: 1.) 61% of all 226 actors (95% CI 55% to 67%) refrained from targeting civilians. 2.) Logistic regression showed actors were more likely to have targeted civilians if conflict duration was three or more years rather than one year. 3.) In the 88 actors that targeted civilians, multiple regressions showed an inverse correlation between CTI values and the total number of fatalities. Conflict duration of three or more years was associated with lower CTI values than conflict duration of one year. 4.) When conflict scale and duration were accounted for, state and non-state actors did not differ. We describe civilian targeting by actors in prolonged conflict. We discuss comparable patterns found in nature and interdisciplinary research. Conclusions/Significance Most warring groups in 2002–2007 did not target civilians. Warring groups that targeted civilians in small-scale, brief conflict concentrated more lethal behavior into targeting civilians, and less into battles, than groups in larger-scale, longer conflict

A public health approach to understanding and preventing violent radicalization

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Very recent acts of terrorism in the UK were perpetrated by 'homegrown', well educated young people, rather than by foreign Islamist groups; consequently, a process of violent radicalization was proposed to explain how ordinary people were recruited and persuaded to sacrifice their lives.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Counterterrorism approaches grounded in the criminal justice system have not prevented violent radicalization. Indeed there is some evidence that these approaches may have encouraged membership of radical groups by not recognizing Muslim communities as allies, citizens, victims of terrorism, and victims of discrimination, but only as suspect communities who were then further alienated. Informed by public health research and practice, a new approach is proposed to target populations vulnerable to recruitment, rather than rely only on research of well known terrorist groups and individual perpetrators of terrorist acts.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This paper proposes public health research and practice to guard against violent radicalization.</p

Violent Deaths of Iraqi Civilians, 2003–2008: Analysis by Perpetrator, Weapon, Time, and Location

Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks and colleagues provide a detailed analysis of Iraqi civilian violent deaths during 2003-2008 of the Iraq war and show that of 92,614 deaths, unknown perpetrators caused 74% of deaths, Coalition forces 12%, and Anti-Coalition forces 11%

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict

The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths

Observation of an Exotic S=+1S=+1 Baryon in Exclusive Photoproduction from the Deuteron

In an exclusive measurement of the reaction $\gamma d \to K^+ K^- p n$, a narrow peak that can be attributed to an exotic baryon with strangeness $S=+1$ is seen in the $K^+n$ invariant mass spectrum. The peak is at $1.542\pm 0.005$ GeV/c$^2$ with a measured width of 0.021 GeV/c$^2$ FWHM, which is largely determined by experimental mass resolution. The statistical significance of the peak is $5.2 \pm 0.6 \sigma$. The mass and width of the observed peak are consistent with recent reports of a narrow $S=+1$ baryon by other experimental groups.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

π+\pi^+ photoproduction on the proton for photon energies from 0.725 to 2.875 GeV

Differential cross sections for the reaction $\gamma p \to n \pi^+$ have been measured with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) and a tagged photon beam with energies from 0.725 to 2.875 GeV. Where available, the results obtained here compare well with previously published results for the reaction. Agreement with the SAID and MAID analyses is found below 1 GeV. The present set of cross sections has been incorporated into the SAID database, and exploratory fits have been made up to 2.7 GeV. Resonance couplings have been extracted and compared to previous determinations. With the addition of these cross sections to the world data set, significant changes have occurred in the high-energy behavior of the SAID cross-section predictions and amplitudes.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Measurement of Beam-Spin Asymmetries for Deep Inelastic π+\pi^+ Electroproduction

We report the first evidence for a non-zero beam-spin azimuthal asymmetry in the electroproduction of positive pions in the deep-inelastic region. Data have been obtained using a polarized electron beam of 4.3 GeV with the CLAS detector at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab). The amplitude of the $\sin\phi$ modulation increases with the momentum of the pion relative to the virtual photon, $z$, with an average amplitude of $0.038 \pm 0.005 \pm 0.003$ for $0.5 < z < 0.8$ range.Comment: 5 pages, RevTEX4, 3 figures, 2 table

Measurement of the Polarized Structure Function σLT′\sigma_{LT^\prime} for p(e⃗,e′p)πop(\vec{e},e'p)\pi^o in the Δ(1232)\Delta(1232) Resonance Region

The polarized longitudinal-transverse structure function $\sigma_{LT^\prime}$ has been measured in the $\Delta(1232)$ resonance region at $Q^2=0.40$ and 0.65 GeV$^2$. Data for the $p(\vec e,e'p)\pi^o$ reaction were taken at Jefferson Lab with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) using longitudinally polarized electrons at an energy of 1.515 GeV. For the first time a complete angular distribution was measured, permitting the separation of different non-resonant amplitudes using a partial wave analysis. Comparison with previous beam asymmetry measurements at MAMI indicate a deviation from the predicted $Q^2$ dependence of $\sigma_{LT^{\prime}}$ using recent phenomenological models.Comment: 5 pages, LaTex, 4 eps figures: to be published in PRC/Rapid Communications. Version 2 has revised Q^2 analysi

Onset of asymptotic scaling in deuteron photodisintegration

We investigate the transition from the nucleon-meson to quark-gluon description of the strong interaction using the photon energy dependence of the $d(\gamma,p)n$ differential cross section for photon energies above 0.5 GeV and center-of-mass proton angles between $30^{\circ}$ and $150^{\circ}$. A possible signature for this transition is the onset of cross section $s^{-11}$ scaling with the total energy squared, $s$, at some proton transverse momentum, $P_T$. The results show that the scaling has been reached for proton transverse momentum above about 1.1 GeV/c. This may indicate that the quark-gluon regime is reached above this momentum.Comment: Accepted by PRL; 5 pages, 2 figure