Allocatie van CO2-emissies middels gebruik van gelijkheidscriteria en optimalisatie

Abstract niet beschikbaarIn order to reduce the risks of a climate change, a major problem in developing an effective international policy, is the allocation of the responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions among regions. The report presents two approaches to provide for the allocation problem of emission reductions of the most important greenhouse gas CO2. The first deals with a description of the emission debt concept. We use an equity rule by which all past and future dwellers on earth are permitted to emit an equal CO2 quotum per year. Furthermore, the level of the equal emission quotum is dependent on the policy related CO2-equivelant concentration targets. The regional emission debt is the amount of CO2, based on a equal share per capita, emitted in a region in the past exceeding the amount allowed. The resulting initial allocation of emission rights may be used as a start for a concept of tradable emission rights. In the second approach the allocation problem is formulated as an optimization problem. This contains an "optimal" trade off between rough estimates for cosial and economic consequences of reducing fossil CO2-emissions in order to meet policy targets, as expressed in a CO2-equivalent concentration level. The optimization algorithm developed is a first attempt in solving the optimization problem, where restictions are dependent on simulation runs with IMAGE (an Intergrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). The algorithm is used to find an allocation of regional fossil CO2-emissions in order to maximize welfare of future generations, givin a maximum allowable concentration level. Results of both approches indicate that if the world community is to accept constraints on CO-emissions, industrialized regions will have to take the main responsibility in reducing CO2-emissions either by reducing emissions in their own regions and in developing regions.DGM/L

Het alloceren van vastgesteld globaal koolstofbudget

Abstract niet beschikbaarThe feasibility of an effective international response to anticipated climate change is dependent on the recognition of the present and historical inequities between developing and industrialized countries. Developing countries should be enabled and supported to continue their development towards higher standards of living in a fashion that is consistent with the sustainability of the global biosphere. This paper evaluates long-term climate strategies by which the burden of mitigating climate change by controlling CO2-emissions is shared equitably. Here we use as a possible criterion of equity, that every human being, past or future, is allowed to emit the same carbon quotum on an annual basis. Using such an interpretation of interregional and intergenerational equity we calculate the 'emission debts' and future regional per capita emission quota for the world-regions. The results show that past industrialisation has coincided with a large relative contribution of the rich regions to the rise in CO2-concentration, an estimated 40% for the EC and North America, which have built up an emission debt of 36 GtC and 75 GtC resp. using recent World Bank projections of population growth. The developing countries, however, have built up an emission credit of 24 GtC. These regional emission debts and credits increase the future per capita budget for the developing regions till 0.2 - 0.8 ton C/cap yearly, whereas North America and the EC end up with negative future carbon budgets. Even if the IPCC Business-as-Usual scenario is considered as reference, the future emission quota of most industrialized countries are lower than their present per capita emissions.DGM/

Probabilistische risicobeoordeling voor nieuwe en bestaande stoffen: Voorbeeldberekeningen

In de EU-methodiek van risicobeoordeling voor nieuwe en bestaande stoffen wordt "risico" gekarakteriseerd als het deterministische quotient van blootstelling en effect (PEC/PNEC of "Margin of Safety"). Vanuit wetenschappelijk oogpunt is het aan te bevelen om de onzekerheid in het risicoquotient expliciet in de besluitvorming mee te nemen. De voor- en nadelen van probabilistische risicobeoordeling in dit kader zijn al uitgebreid besproken in eerder werk. Om de voordelen van een probabilistisch risicokader te demonstreren worden in dit rapport voorbeeldberekeningen voor twee stoffen gegeven: dibutylftatlaat (DBP, een bestaande stof) en een notificatie van een nieuwe stof. De uitgewerkte voorbeelden tonen aan dat een probabilistisch risicokader met weinig extra inspanning haalbaar is en meer relevante informatie geeft. Het deterministische risicoquotient bleek tamelijk worst case te zijn; i.h.a. hoger dan het 95e percentiel van de waarschijnlijkheidsverdeling. Gevoeligheidsanalyse bleek een krachtig instrument te zijn om de voornaamste bronnen van onzekerheid te identificeren en is daardoor belangrijk voor een efficiente teststrategie.In the risk assessment methods for new and existing chemicals in the EU, "risk" is characterised by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects (PEC/PNEC or Margin of Safety). From a scientific viewpoint, the uncertainty in the risk quotient should be accounted for explicitly in the decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of probabilistic risk assessment in this legal framework have been extensively discussed in earlier work. To demonstrate the benefits of a probabilistic risk framework, example assessments for two substances are presented in this report: dibutylphthalate (DBP, an existing chemical) and a new chemical notification. The worked-out examples show that a probabilistic risk framework is feasible with relatively little extra effort and provides more relevant information. The deterministic risk quotients turned out to be quite worst case; generally higher than the 95th percentile of the probability distributions. Sensitivity analysis proves to be a powerful tool to identify the main sources of uncertainty and thus for efficient further testing.DG

Probabilistische risicobeoordeling voor nieuwe en bestaande stoffen: Voorbeeldberekeningen

In the risk assessment methods for new and existing chemicals in the EU, "risk" is characterised by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects (PEC/PNEC or Margin of Safety). From a scientific viewpoint, the uncertainty in the risk quotient should be accounted for explicitly in the decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of probabilistic risk assessment in this legal framework have been extensively discussed in earlier work. To demonstrate the benefits of a probabilistic risk framework, example assessments for two substances are presented in this report: dibutylphthalate (DBP, an existing chemical) and a new chemical notification. The worked-out examples show that a probabilistic risk framework is feasible with relatively little extra effort and provides more relevant information. The deterministic risk quotients turned out to be quite worst case; generally higher than the 95th percentile of the probability distributions. Sensitivity analysis proves to be a powerful tool to identify the main sources of uncertainty and thus for efficient further testing.In de EU-methodiek van risicobeoordeling voor nieuwe en bestaande stoffen wordt "risico" gekarakteriseerd als het deterministische quotient van blootstelling en effect (PEC/PNEC of "Margin of Safety"). Vanuit wetenschappelijk oogpunt is het aan te bevelen om de onzekerheid in het risicoquotient expliciet in de besluitvorming mee te nemen. De voor- en nadelen van probabilistische risicobeoordeling in dit kader zijn al uitgebreid besproken in eerder werk. Om de voordelen van een probabilistisch risicokader te demonstreren worden in dit rapport voorbeeldberekeningen voor twee stoffen gegeven: dibutylftatlaat (DBP, een bestaande stof) en een notificatie van een nieuwe stof. De uitgewerkte voorbeelden tonen aan dat een probabilistisch risicokader met weinig extra inspanning haalbaar is en meer relevante informatie geeft. Het deterministische risicoquotient bleek tamelijk worst case te zijn; i.h.a. hoger dan het 95e percentiel van de waarschijnlijkheidsverdeling. Gevoeligheidsanalyse bleek een krachtig instrument te zijn om de voornaamste bronnen van onzekerheid te identificeren en is daardoor belangrijk voor een efficiente teststrategie

Efficient functionalization of additives at supramolecular material surfaces

Selective surface modification reactions can be performed on additives that are supramolecularly incorporated into supramolecular materials. Hereby, processing of the material, that regularly requires harsh processing conditions (i.e., the use of organic solvents and/or high temperatures), and functionalization can be decoupled. Moreover, high-resolution depth profiling by time-of-flight (ToF) secondary-ion mass spectrometry clearly shows distinct differences in surface and bulk material composition

[Mondiale verandering en duurzame ontwikkeling: een modelperspectief voor de komende tien jaar.]

In this study the totality of changes on planet Earth, including all human interventions and alterations, is considered as constituting global change, a concept which is therefore broader than the concept of global environmental change. The latter only refers to the human-induced biophysical changes in the dynamics of the Earth system, while global change refers to changes in both the biophysical and the human system. In practice, the concept of global environmental change is a general umbrella term for a whole range of mutually dependent global environmental problems. Within the context of this research programme global change is, in contrast to earlier studies, considered from an integrated perspective. In this study the starting point is to consider the common causes, mechanisms and impacts of a number of coherent themes, functions and scales, and to translate this in terms of Pressure, State, Impact and Response (P-S-I-R approach). This is more in line with the universal principle of approaching environmentally related problems, which assumes that many of those problems are generic in nature

[Mondiale verandering en duurzame ontwikkeling: een modelperspectief voor de komende tien jaar.]

Abstract niet beschikbaarIn this study the totality of changes on planet Earth, including all human interventions and alterations, is considered as constituting global change, a concept which is therefore broader than the concept of global environmental change. The latter only refers to the human-induced biophysical changes in the dynamics of the Earth system, while global change refers to changes in both the biophysical and the human system. In practice, the concept of global environmental change is a general umbrella term for a whole range of mutually dependent global environmental problems. Within the context of this research programme global change is, in contrast to earlier studies, considered from an integrated perspective. In this study the starting point is to consider the common causes, mechanisms and impacts of a number of coherent themes, functions and scales, and to translate this in terms of Pressure, State, Impact and Response (P-S-I-R approach). This is more in line with the universal principle of approaching environmentally related problems, which assumes that many of those problems are generic in nature.RIV