Analysis of time-to-event for observational studies: Guidance to the use of intensity models

This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event definition and censoring are given. Hazard models are introduced, with special emphasis on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We provide check lists that may be useful both when fitting the model and assessing its goodness of fit and when interpreting the results. Special attention is paid to how to avoid problems with immortal time bias by introducing time-dependent covariates. We discuss prediction based on hazard models and difficulties when attempting to draw proper causal conclusions from such models. Finally, we present a series of examples where the methods and check lists are exemplified. Computational details and implementation using the freely available R software are documented in Supplementary Material. The paper was prepared as part of the STRATOS initiative.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures. For associated Supplementary material, see http://publicifsv.sund.ku.dk/~pka/STRATOSTG8

Proteomic analysis of the cerebrospinal fluid of patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

So far, only the detection of 14-3-3 proteins in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has been accepted as diagnostic criterion for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). However, this assay cannot be used for screening because of the high rate of false-positive results, whereas patients with variant CJD are often negative for 14-3-3 proteins. The aim of this study was to compare the spot patterns of CSF by 2-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2D-PAGE) to search for a CJD-specific spot pattern. We analyzed the CSF of 28 patients {[}11 CJD, 9 Alzheimer's disease ( AD), 8 nondemented controls (NDC)] employing 2D-PAGE which was optimized for minimal volumes of CSF (0.1 ml; 7-cm strips). All samples were run at least three times, gels were silver stained and analyzed by an analysis software and manually revised. We could consistently match 268 spots which were then compared between all groups. By the use of 5 spots, we were able to differentiate CJD from AD or NDC with a sensitivity of 100%. CJD could also be distinguished from both groups by using a heuristic clustering algorithm of 2 spots. We conclude that this proteomic approach can differentiate CJD from other diseases and may serve as a model for other neurodegenerative diseases. Copyright (C) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel

Efficient single nucleotide polymorphism discovery in laboratory rat strains using wild rat-derived SNP candidates

BACKGROUND: The laboratory rat (Rattus norvegicus) is an important model for studying many aspects of human health and disease. Detailed knowledge on genetic variation between strains is important from a biomedical, particularly pharmacogenetic point of view and useful for marker selection for genetic cloning and association studies. RESULTS: We show that Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in commonly used rat strains are surprisingly well represented in wild rat isolates. Shotgun sequencing of 814 Kbp in one wild rat resulted in the identification of 485 SNPs as compared with the Brown Norway genome sequence. Genotyping 36 commonly used inbred rat strains showed that 84% of these alleles are also polymorphic in a representative set of laboratory rat strains. CONCLUSION: We postulate that shotgun sequencing in a wild rat sample and subsequent genotyping in multiple laboratory or domesticated strains rather than direct shotgun sequencing of multiple strains, could be the most efficient SNP discovery approach. For the rat, laboratory strains still harbor a large portion of the haplotypes present in wild isolates, suggesting a relatively recent common origin and supporting the idea that rat inbred strains, in contrast to mouse inbred strains, originate from a single species, R. norvegicus

Entropy production in phase field theories

Allen-Cahn (Ginzburg-Landau) dynamics for scalar fields with heat conduction is treated in rigid bodies using a non-equilibrium thermodynamic framework with weakly nonlocal internal variables. The entropy production and entropy flux is calculated with the classical method of irreversible thermodynamics by separating full divergences.Comment: 5 pages, no figure

Serum heart-type fatty acid-binding protein and cerebrospinal fluid tau: Marker candidates for dementia with Lewy bodies

Background: The measurement of biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has gained increasing acceptance in establishing the diagnosis of some neurodegenerative diseases. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) was recently discovered in CSF and serum of patients with neurodegenerative diseases. Objective: We investigated H-FABP in CSF and serum alone and in combination with CSF tau protein to evaluate these as potential biomarkers for the differentiation between dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Methods: We established H-FABP and tau protein values in a set of 144 persons with DLB (n = 33), Parkinson disease with dementia (PDD; n = 25), AD (n = 35) and nonclemented neurological controls (NNC; n = 51). Additionally, serum H-FABP levels were analyzed in idiopathic Parkinson disease patients without evidence of cognitive decline (n = 45) using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. We calculated absolute values of HFABP and tau protein in CSF and serum and established relative ratios between the two to obtain the best possible match for the clinical working diagnosis. Results: Serum HFABP levels were elevated in DLB and PDD patients compared with NNC and AD subjects. To better discriminate between DLB and AD, we calculated the ratio of serum H-FABP to CSF tau protein levels. At the arbitrary chosen cutoff ratio >= 8 this quotient reached a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 66%. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the measurement of CSF tau protein, together with H-FABP quantification in serum and CSF, and the ratio of serum H-FABP to CSF tau protein represent marker candidates for the differentiation between AD and DLB. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel

Progressive slip after removal of screw fixation in slipped capital femoral epiphysis: two case reports

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>In slipped capital femoral epiphysis the femoral neck displaces relative to the head due to weakening of the epiphysis. Early recognition and adequate surgical fixation is essential for a good functional outcome. The fixation should be secured until the closure of the epiphysis to prevent further slippage. A slipped capital femoral epiphysis should not be confused with a femoral neck fracture.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Case 1 concerns a 15-year-old boy with an adequate initial screw fixation of his slipped capital femoral epiphysis. Unfortunately, it was thought that the epiphysis had healed and the screw was removed after 11 weeks. This caused new instability with a progressive slip of the femoral epiphysis and subsequently re-fixation and a subtrochanteric correction osteotomy was obligatory. Case 2 concerns a 13-year-old girl with persistent hip pain after screw fixation for slipped capital femoral epiphysis. The screw was removed as lysis was seen around the screw on the hip X-ray. This operation created a new unstable situation and the slip progressed resulting in poor hip function. A correction osteotomy with re-screw fixation was performed with a good functional result.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A slipped epiphysis of the hip is not considered ‘healed’ after a few months. Given the risk of progression of the slip the fixation material cannot be removed before closure of the growth plate.</p

Successful interdisciplinary management of the misdeployment of two self-expanding stents into the internal carotid artery: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>With the widespread use of carotid artery stenting, previously unknown technical mistakes of this treatment modality are now being encountered. There are multiple strategies for the treatment of in-stent restenosis. With regard to surgical management, endarterectomy and patch plasty are favored. To the best of our knowledge, this report is the first description of a complete stent removal by the eversion technique.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 63-year-old Caucasian man with misdeployment of two stents into his stenotic proximal internal carotid artery, resulting in a high-grade mechanical obstruction of the internal carotid artery lumen. With the contralateral internal carotid artery already occluded and associated stenoses of both proximal and distal vertebral arteries, an interdisciplinary therapeutic concept was applied. Bilateral balloon angioplasty and stenting of the proximal and distal stenotic vertebral arteries were carried out to provide sufficient posterior collateral blood flow, followed by successful surgical stentectomy and carotid endarterectomy using the eversion technique. Duplex scanning and neurological assessments were normal over a 12-month follow-up period.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Interdisciplinary treatment is a recommended option to protect patients from further impairment. Further evaluation in larger studies is highly recommended.</p

Social Phobia in an Italian region: do Italian studies show lower frequencies than community surveys conducted in other European countries?

BACKGROUND: The lifetime prevalence of Social Phobia (SP) in European countries other than Italy has been estimated to range from 3.5% to 16.0%. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of SP in Sardinia (Italy) in order to verify the evidence of a lower frequency of SP in Italy observed in previous studies (from 1.0% to 3.1%). METHODS: A randomised cross sample of 1040 subjects, living in Cagliari, in rural areas, and in a mining district in Sardinia were interviewed using a Simplified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDIS). Diagnoses were made according to the 10(th )International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence of SP was 2.2% (males: 1.5%, females: 2.8%) whereas 6-month prevalence resulted in 1.5% (males: 0.9%, females: 2.1%). Mean age at onset was 16.2 ± 9.3 years. A statistically significant association was found with Depressive Episode, Dysthymia and Generalized Anxiety Disorder. CONCLUSIONS: The study is consistent with findings reported in several previous studies of a lower prevalence of SP in Italy. Furthermore, the results confirm the fact that SP, due to its early onset, might constitute an ideal target for early treatment aimed at preventing both the accumulation of social disabilities and impairments caused by anxiety and avoidance behaviour, as well as the onset of more serious, associated complications in later stages of the illness

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

Background: In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum sensu lato be carefully considered. Methods: We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates. Results: The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles. Conclusions: Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease